I'd like some opinions on this:

Razz · 01-22-07, 12:33 AM

The question is probably better asked this way - If both teams had equally talented QBs, what's the line?

Jay Edgar · 01-22-07, 12:55 AM

There's an answer to this question that's not just sports fans taking out their ass. I don't know what it is, or if the methodology is fully developed or being used, but somebody could determine historically what replacement-level performance is for QBs, how much above it Manning is and where Grossman rates, and how that gap translates into wins and thus points.

But I'm just a sports fan talking out of his ass -- I think that with an dead-average QB on both sides the Bears are 3 over the Colts.

Dark Horse · 01-22-07, 12:55 AM

Depends on the type of game. What are Grossman's numbers when CHI falls behind? Would have to look it up, but I don't think too good. If Bears trail in the game that would put a lot of pressure on Grossman, which he likely wouldn't handle too well. Manning can bring the Colts back from a big deficit.

So if the Colts lead, Grossman's value would go down.
If the Bears lead, Manning's value would stay the same or go up.

After two alright games, is Grossman due? For a terrible one.

bigboydan · 01-22-07, 01:18 AM

I'd say 7 would be a fair assessment to your question Razz.

You gotta remember the Chicago defense is pretty damn good this year, and you have to give some sorta respect from that aspect.

Razz · 01-22-07, 01:21 AM

Thanks guys. Obviously the point is, that unless you think Manning is worth at least two touchdowns, you have to at least consider the Bears. From player #2 on down the roster, the Bears are obviously the better team.

bigboydan · 01-22-07, 01:23 AM

After capping this game for the past few hours. I would tend to agree with that statement Razz.

JDK192 · 01-22-07, 01:29 PM

The short answer is 7 pts. I personally think he's worth more pts than that but that's what the linesmakers feel he's worth.
Just look at the last games of the seasons the 2 previous years when Indy had home field locked up and Manning sat. EX; They were a 10pt dog at Seattle last year when line would've been 3 any other time during the yr.