Kroyrunner's CFL Thread!

[kroyrunner89]

Alright, I got bored waiting for the NFL so I decided to put together a CFL system similar to my NFL one. I may need one more week of stats til the thing is clicking, but I'm hoping it's results are similar to what I had in the NFL. These picks are based entirely on stats, I don't know anything about the CFL, so this may be doomed to fail. Take these picks with a grain of salt, even if I get off to a hot start. If you know CFL, and there are any key injuries that could affect my plays, please let me know. Hopefully this system can produce some worthwhile results!

[kroyrunner89]

Thursday 8/13
Calgary +1

with 78% of the public currently on this it almost looks too good to be true... let me stress once more that i in no way encourage anyone to follow these plays because my NFL system was good. i have no idea how well the system will carry over to CFL, and i'm starting it up in Week 7, a week earlier then i'd normally start my NFL one. good luck to anyone who has money on this game, regardless of which side you took

[head_strong]

Looks good kroyrunner, might tail you on this one.....

[MrMonkey]

Good luck Kroy!

[kroyrunner89]

Looks good kroyrunner, might tail you on this one.....

please, i beg you, in these first few weeks do not let ANYTHING i say influence one of your picks. the CFL is not the NFL, i have no record of betting it, plus very limited knowledge on each team's injury situation at the moment (any sites that would help me track that kind of thing would be great to know about). until there are signs that my system works on CFL plays too, please just steer clear and consider this a tracking thread.

[kroyrunner89]

No Plays Friday.

Saturday 8/15
Hamilton +6
Winnipeg/Montreal Under 48

[kroyrunner89]

Thursday 8/13
Calgary +1

Well that game had absolutely no defense, frustrating to lose on a TD when Edmonton got the ball back with 38 seconds left. So far, not a huge CFL fan!

Loss: 0-1

[kroyrunner89]

Saturday 8/15
Winnipeg/Montreal Under 48

0-2-0... ouch rough start. hopefully hamilton will come through tonight

[Dimwhit]

I ended up going 2-2 vs line and 0-3 vs OU. 10-9 for season.

[kroyrunner89]

Sunday 8/16
Hamilton +6

ugly ugly start... 0-3 week 7 yikes. maybe i kicked it off a week sooner than i should have (i wait until week 8 for my nfl one), or maybe this system just can't be applied to CFL like it can NFL. i'll give it a few more weeks and up my sample size, if it doesn't work oh well, maybe we can just fade the plays!

[vega007]

Throw the stats out the window when you're betting the CFL. They don't call it the Crazy Football League for no reason. It's all about momentum, home crowd advantage, and who has a better quarterback.

[kroyrunner89]

Throw the stats out the window when you're betting the CFL. They don't call it the Crazy Football League for no reason. It's all about momentum, home crowd advantage, and who has a better quarterback.

yeah i'm starting to see that... i won't give up on it yet though. part of what makes the NFL system so successful is that home field advantage is pretty much dead in the NFL... i can't tell yet how strong of a role it plays in the CFL. i'll give it a few more weeks and see if i can make any tweaks

[vega007]

Home field is huge in the CFL. 80 to 90% of all games will still be up in the air within the last minute of the game though, so be careful.

[kroyrunner89]

well i'm trusting vega knows what he's talking about, but i'm going to keep this going just for the heck of it. let's see if the carnage continues this week, although i don't have many plays. two plays this week:

Friday 8/21
Saskatchewan +12.5
Montreal/Saskatchewan OVER 54.5

[Hulu]

Listen to Vega...he's got the CFL figured out. The league is very topsy turvy. Hell, the championship trophy was even kidnapped and held for ransom years ago.

I can't seem to find any value this week in the lines at all. Your Sask bet scares me as they are playing on a short week, have an inconsistent QB, have a ton of injuries and are just off a big home win. But 12.5 is a lot of points so they could make a backdoor cover with a late score. That game just scares me. Good luck.

[Dimwhit]

First two picks are the same as yours:
SAS +12.5
SAS/MON over 54

Plus
BC -7.5
WIN/BC over 50

[kroyrunner89]

Friday 8/21
Saskatchewan +12.5 Win
Montreal/Saskatchewan OVER 54.5 Win

Alright that's what I like to see. Pull out two wins from this one, glad I stayed away from the other game since I had weak system plays and they woulda been wrong. I still have a very small sample size of plays so it's still way too early to judge whether this has a shot at being successful or not, but the fact that the ship was somewhat righted is encouraging. If I hadn't started a week earlier than normal I'd be 2-0 right now, but I'm not the type that wipes out plays to try to make records better. If this truly is successful, the record will take care of itself in the long haul. Cya next week guys.

Record: 2-3

[CRAPTORS101]

nice play

[kroyrunner89]

Friday 8/28
Calgary -7

I'll have a couple of Saturday plays posted soon as well...

[Hulu]

Nice job last week. I like Calgary -7 but have decided to play the under in that game. Good luck

[kroyrunner89]

yeah i came close to playing the under but not quite enough strength for me to make it a play. plus, with only two weeks under my belt i still don't have a great feel for any of these teams. i don't expect i will this season, if this is something i choose to do again next year then i may be able to feel that my personal opinion carries some weight. until then, hopefully the numbers are enough to get the job done

[Dimwhit]

For line I've got:
Cal -7
Edmonton -7

Both are weak, though...just posting them up to note agreement on Cal pick.

For OU:
Cal/Tor - Over 53
Ham/Ed - Over 53

Through week 8, I'm 12-11 breaking down as
Line: 7-4
OU: 5-7

[BGboothA]

Friday 8/28
Calgary -7

I'll have a couple of Saturday plays posted soon as well...

Alright lets get'em

[kroyrunner89]

Saturday 8/29
Hamilton +7
Edmonton/Hamilton UNDER 53

That'll do it for plays this week, time to sit back and see how things go. Looks like my system reads the Hamilton game completely differently than yours dimwhit, best of luck to you if you lay some money down.

[Dimwhit]

Heh, well, the Edmonton call is too close to actually wager on. Just posting up wich direction my model is pointing. I'll let the OU record speak for itself. Given the current inaccuracy of the OU and the fact that you're predicting the under, I'd probably say you've got a good chance of getting that one.

[kroyrunner89]

Friday 8/28
Calgary -7

Loss
Record: 2-4

[Dimwhit]

Well, I went 1-1 on week 9. Missed the Cal-Tor OVER call, but got the Ham-Ed OVER. Didn't take any lines since the predictions were basically on top of the bet lines.

To date:
Line: 7-4
OU: 6-8
Total: 13-12

Not exactly stellar, but it's fun trying to make sense of the crazy CFL.

[maxmad]

Hamilton is disappointing

[kroyrunner89]

Saturday 8/29
Hamilton +7 Win
Edmonton/Hamilton UNDER 53 Loss

Alright so 1-1 tonight, rough week 9 brings me to 3-5. Not exactly what I was looking for but who cares it's the CFL. I'm thinking now that byes are over with I give this 3 more weeks, and if I'm not above .500 by then I scrap this and get serious about NFL. We'll see what happens, CFL is a very different league, if it doesn't work it doesn't work no big deal. Cya all week 10.

[kroyrunner89]

Not a whole lot out there this week that my system likes... here's what I've got for Friday, this may be it for this week.

Friday, 9/4
Montreal -5.5
BC/Montreal OVER 53.5

[Dimwhit]

Here's what I've got for the week:
Game 1:
Montreal -5.5

Game 2:
Winnipeg: +7
Win/Sas: Under 51.5

Game 3:
Toronto: +6

Game 4:
Edmonton: +6
Ed/Cal : Under 60

[Hulu]

I've got Montreal -5.5 Can't figure this line out. I had it pegged to come out anywhere from 7.5 to 10 and then it comes out at 6.5 and drops from there.

Also have Toronto/Hamilton o47. Good luck guys!

[kroyrunner89]

ok well i think it's safe to say this is not going to work anywhere near as well as my nfl system. since the nfl season is pretty much upon us anyways i'll just throw in the towel here and focus all of my attention there. it was fun trying, maybe i'll take another crack at it next year. to all of you who can successfully cap CFL hats off to you. certainly not my sport. it's been fun guys, thanks for the support

[Dimwhit]

Maybe your system isn't perfect...but you are trying to make predictions on a crazy form of football. Even if you're not running at 0.6, there's still some value in what you're doing. Really, who would have thought that MON would lose last week? I say keep posting up predictions even if you're on the losing end of things.