Week #13 (Sunday Games)
Written Tuesday November 28th, 2019 at 11 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos (rated 4 stars)
The Chargers have had plenty of time to reflect on their last two games, both losses to divisional rivals. Their bye week allowed them to game plan appropriately against the Broncos.
L.A. won’t take Denver lightly, considering they were upset at home 20-to-13 in Week #5. They’ll be looking for payback, while the Broncos may not play as hard after a stinker in Buffalo.
At the time of writing, Denver’s starting quarterback has yet to be decided. GM John Elway said Brandon Allen and Drew Lock will split the practice reps this week. A decision is expected to be made by Friday. No matter which one plays, he’ll face a tough task against strong pass rushers like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
Saftey Derwin James has a real shot to be in the lineup for the Chargers. That would be a huge boost to their defense since James was graded as the seventh-best safety in the league by ProFootballFocus.
In my own opinion, the Chargers are a MUCH better team than their 4-7 record indicates. They have a lot more playmakers on both sides of the ball than the Broncos.
Please note that the Chargers are 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. Sounds good to me!
PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs New York Jets (rated 2 stars)
The Jets are all happy about their recent 3-game winning streak, in which Sam Darnold has thrown 7 TD passes versus just one interception. Facing the Bengals should be easy, right?
I don’t think so. Cincinnati is looking for their first win of the season. They certainly want to give their head coach his first career NFL win. Andy Dalton will be back under center, which gives them a much better chance of winning since the Ryan Finley experiment failed.
The Bengals will be at home for the fourth week out of the past five. In other words, they did not have to travel too much recently so they should be ready to roll.
PICK: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Tennessee Titans (rated 1 star)
The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with AFC South teams. They are 7-1 ATS when facing the Titans at home over their past eight meetings in Indy. Those are pretty stunning numbers!
Indianapolis played last Thursday, so they’ll be well-rested.
Ryan Tannehill has done a nice job since taking over the QB position for Tennessee. However, look at the road/home split: he has thrown 9 TD passes versus 1 interception at home, compared to 1 TD and 3 picks on the road. Facing a tough Colts defense on the road does not bode well for him!
Sure, Marlon Mack is out for the Colts. I don’t want to imply that he is not a good player, but in my opinion most of the job is getting done through the strong play of their offensive line. Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines did very well replacing him last week, as the running game did not skip a beat in his absence.
I hope you enjoyed this write up, and best of luck with your plays!
Professor MJ
Written Tuesday November 28th, 2019 at 11 am Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
PICK: Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos (rated 4 stars)
The Chargers have had plenty of time to reflect on their last two games, both losses to divisional rivals. Their bye week allowed them to game plan appropriately against the Broncos.
L.A. won’t take Denver lightly, considering they were upset at home 20-to-13 in Week #5. They’ll be looking for payback, while the Broncos may not play as hard after a stinker in Buffalo.
At the time of writing, Denver’s starting quarterback has yet to be decided. GM John Elway said Brandon Allen and Drew Lock will split the practice reps this week. A decision is expected to be made by Friday. No matter which one plays, he’ll face a tough task against strong pass rushers like Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
Saftey Derwin James has a real shot to be in the lineup for the Chargers. That would be a huge boost to their defense since James was graded as the seventh-best safety in the league by ProFootballFocus.
In my own opinion, the Chargers are a MUCH better team than their 4-7 record indicates. They have a lot more playmakers on both sides of the ball than the Broncos.
Please note that the Chargers are 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. Sounds good to me!
PICK: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs New York Jets (rated 2 stars)
The Jets are all happy about their recent 3-game winning streak, in which Sam Darnold has thrown 7 TD passes versus just one interception. Facing the Bengals should be easy, right?
I don’t think so. Cincinnati is looking for their first win of the season. They certainly want to give their head coach his first career NFL win. Andy Dalton will be back under center, which gives them a much better chance of winning since the Ryan Finley experiment failed.
The Bengals will be at home for the fourth week out of the past five. In other words, they did not have to travel too much recently so they should be ready to roll.
PICK: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Tennessee Titans (rated 1 star)
The Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with AFC South teams. They are 7-1 ATS when facing the Titans at home over their past eight meetings in Indy. Those are pretty stunning numbers!
Indianapolis played last Thursday, so they’ll be well-rested.
Ryan Tannehill has done a nice job since taking over the QB position for Tennessee. However, look at the road/home split: he has thrown 9 TD passes versus 1 interception at home, compared to 1 TD and 3 picks on the road. Facing a tough Colts defense on the road does not bode well for him!
Sure, Marlon Mack is out for the Colts. I don’t want to imply that he is not a good player, but in my opinion most of the job is getting done through the strong play of their offensive line. Jonathan Williams and Nyheim Hines did very well replacing him last week, as the running game did not skip a beat in his absence.
I hope you enjoyed this write up, and best of luck with your plays!
Professor MJ