NFL Player Props (by stats university professor)

[Prof.MJ]

NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #7)
BY PROFESSOR MJ
University Professor. PhD in stats. Proud dad of 2 boys.

I am going to start sharing my picks on NFL player props!

How are the picks made?

They are based on a mix of two things:

• Player projections made by reliable websites (I am a member of some paid sites who provide great info about the NFL)
• My own judgment

So basically, I compare the lines posted by bookies with the player projections I obtain from paid websites.

If there is a fairly big difference between the two, and the pick also makes sense to me, I am betting it!

IMPORTANT REMARK: The odds matter a lot! I do not recommend betting those player props if your bookie has odds that differ quite a bit from those stated below.

For example, if I bet at +140 and your bookie offers the same prop at +115, stay away!

Without further ado, here are the plays I made with Pinnacle at 8 PM Eastern Time on Friday October 18:

PICK #1: Devonta Freeman over 3.5 receptions (at +140 or 2.40)
PICK #2: Brandin Cooks under 4.5 receptions (at -107 or 1.93)
PICK #3: Leonard Fournette over 4.5 receptions (at +122 or 2.22)
PICK #4: Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 TD passes (at +131 or 2.31)
PICK #5: Case Keenum under 213.5 passing yards (at -116 or 1.86)
PICK #6: Jason Sanders under 6.5 kicking points (at -105 or 1.95)
PICK #7: Julio Jones under 5.5 receptions (at +121 or 2.21)
PICK #8: Matt Ryan to throw an interception (at -107 or 1.93)

I'll keep track of the record in the following weeks.

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ

[UnderRated2017]

Nice picks! I love doing player props but only have found 2 separate sets of props to cross reference.. one is the normal prop builder that seems to be on a lot of sites and mybookie also has their own passing, rushing, and receiving NFL props... I can't find em on pinnacle. Is it different from the props builder? Looking for more to find the best price every week.

My best bet this week is Mike Williams will have more receptions than Trey Quinn at -122

I made the bet Tuesday. Now it's at -152 feeling good about that one..

What ya think?

[UnderRated2017]

Found the prop bets on pinnacle but can't play I'm in the US 😥 where else has nfl player props? Thanks!!

[Outhouse Tim]

Most do on Sunday, game day. 5D, Heritage, Bovada, etc, etc.

[Prof.MJ]

Found the prop bets on pinnacle but can't play I'm in the US  where else has nfl player props? Thanks!!

MyBookie.ag (you may need to wait until Sunday to see them pop up, unlike Pinnacle)

[Prof.MJ]

Nice picks! I love doing player props but only have found 2 separate sets of props to cross reference.. one is the normal prop builder that seems to be on a lot of sites and mybookie also has their own passing, rushing, and receiving NFL props... I can't find em on pinnacle. Is it different from the props builder? Looking for more to find the best price every week.

My best bet this week is Mike Williams will have more receptions than Trey Quinn at -122

I made the bet Tuesday. Now it's at -152 feeling good about that one..

What ya think?

Sorry I saw your message too late. I see that you won the bet, good job buddy!

You didn't find the props I mentioned at Pinnacle? That's impossible, they were there for many days! Although I noticed they took down the play on Jason Sanders, which in my opinion was the best one.

[Prof.MJ]

We went 5-3 on the player props yesterday, which was good for a 1.98 unit profit.

I've got 4 good ones for the Monday Nighters between the Pats and the Jets:

PICK #1: Demaryius Thomas over 3.5 receptions (at +115 or 2.15)
PICK #2: Tom Brady under 289.5 passing yards (at -124 or 1.81)
PICK #3: Jakobi Meyers under 2.5 receptions (at +110 or 2.10)
PICK #4: James White under 5.5 receptions (at -110 or 1.91)

Good luck!

Professor MJ

[UnderRated2017]

Ya I won my mike Williams over bunk Trey Quinn that was a great value... I also for the 2nd time this year found a mistake on mybookie with the player props!! This time it was Josh hill TE for the saints at over/under 11.5 receptions!! Duh!!! Took the under at Max bet and got paid!!! Killed it tonight also had:
Demaryius Thomas at least 3 receptions on the props builder at -172
Edelman over 5.5 receptions at -175
Tom Brady under 287.5 at -114

I'll take it!! These NFL player props are so fun!! Let's find value and post!! Start a new post let's go for week 8 what yall got?? The props builder will be up Tuesday let's find value and win!!

[Prof.MJ]

Ya I won my mike Williams over bunk Trey Quinn that was a great value... I also for the 2nd time this year found a mistake on mybookie with the player props!! This time it was Josh hill TE for the saints at over/under 11.5 receptions!! Duh!!! Took the under at Max bet and got paid!!! Killed it tonight also had:
Demaryius Thomas at least 3 receptions on the props builder at -172
Edelman over 5.5 receptions at -175
Tom Brady under 287.5 at -114

I'll take it!! These NFL player props are so fun!! Let's find value and post!! Start a new post let's go for week 8 what yall got?? The props builder will be up Tuesday let's find value and win!!

Good job buddy!! I went 6-6 this week, so nothing to write home about.

I'm okay with a thread for Week #8, will post my plays as soon as I'm ready!

[UnderRated2017]

I got a few already from the player props builder!! I found some great value again! Let me know when u do your picks this week. I'll add mine also!

[Prof.MJ]

I got a few already from the player props builder!! I found some great value again! Let me know when u do your picks this week. I'll add mine also!

Probably tomorrow!

[UnderRated2017]

If u use the props builder they have Paul Richardson and Trey Quinn way too high IMO... Especially P-Rich who hasnt had over 14 yards in 4 games! And 0 the last two games.
I see demaryius Thomas is underrated so I went with demaryius head to head more receptions than Paul Richardson Jr at -122... And Trey Quinn at +104 but I put most of my money against P-Rich! 🤞 But this bet has so much value in my opinion I already did the right thing. If I win or lose that doesn't matter in the long run if I make bets this good everytime and that's my plan! What do u think?? Also might go demaryius over a few other overrated players in receptions like Taylor gabriel at -122 and Tyler eifert at -152. Demaryius had 9 targets last week. These 4 guys I mentioned should be ranked lower and Thomas higher... Money in let's go!!!

[Prof.MJ]

NFL PLAYER PROPS - WEEK #8

Player proposition bets went 6-6 last week.

I am very hopeful we can crush it this week!

The odds stated below are from Pinnacle at 2 PM Eastern Time on Thursday October 24:

PICK #1: Paul Richardson under 2.5 receptions (at -114 or 1.88)
PICK #2: Dan Bailey over 7.5 kicking points (at -122 or 1.82)
PICK #3: Kyle Allen over 0.5 interceptions (at -141 or 1.71)
PICK #4: Andy Dalton under 1.5 TD passes (at -130 or 1.77)
PICK #5: Trey Burton under 2.5 receptions (at -112 or 1.89)
PICK #6: Tarik Cohen over 3.5 receptions (at +119 or 2.19)
PICK #7: Gardner Minshew under 243.5 passing yards (at -115 or 1.87)
PICK #8: Derek Carr under 262.5 passing yards (at -116 or 1.86)
PICK #9: Russell Wilson under 267.5 passing yards (at -114 or 1.88)
PICK #10: Chris Godwin under 0.5 TD receptions (at -130 or 1.77)
PICK #11: Derrick Henry over 66.5 rushing yards (at -112 or 1.89)
PICK #12: Jacoby Brissett over 1.5 TD passes (at +124 or 2.24)
PICK #13: T.Y. Hilton over 4.5 receptions (at -153 or 1.65)

Let's beat those bookies!

Professor MJ

[Prof.MJ]

NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #9)

Sorry I could not post them last weekend because I went on a trip to Buffalo. I barely had enough time to release my YouTube video presenting those picks.

Here they were (you can check my YT video if you need proof that I'm not cheating!):

PICK #1: Melvin Gordon over 40.5 rushing yards (at -122 or 1.82) (WIN)
PICK #2: DeAndre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions (at -107 or 1.93) (WIN)
PICK #3: Mark Walton over 2.5 receptions (at -140 or 1.714) (WIN)
PICK #4: Russell Wilson under 264.5 passing yards (at -121 or 1.83) (LOSS)
PICK #5: Taylor Gabriel under 2.5 receptions (at +133 or 2.33) (LOSS)
PICK #6: Tarik Cohen over 2.5 receptions (at -180 or 1.556) (LOSS)
PICK #7: Mitch Trubisky under 235.5 passing yards (at -120 or 1.833) (WIN)
PICK #8: Odell Beckham over 4.5 receptions (at +103 or 2.03) (WIN)

Thus far in 2019: 18-15 record (profit = +1.85 units)

NFL PLAYER PROPS (WEEK #10)

PICK #1: Hunter Henry over 65.5 receiving yards (at -110 or 1.91 with MyBookie.ag)


PICK #2: Keenan Allen over 68.5 receiving yards (at -120 or 1.83 with Bet365)


PICK #3: Philip Rivers under 314.5 passing yards (at -120 or 1.83 with Bet365)


PICK #4: Derek Carr under 34.5 passing attempts (at -115 or 1.87 with MyBookie.ag)


More to come on Sunday games!

Professor MJ

[UnderRated2017]

Mannnn I got 3 amazing player props bets u can do with prop builder!!
Looks like free money to me!
1. Odell Beckam more receptions than Eric Ebron at -137
2. Devonte Freeman more rushing yards than Peyton Barber at -192
3. Gerald Everett more receptions than Trey Burton duh!! At -122

[Prof.MJ]

Mannnn I got 3 amazing player props bets u can do with prop builder!!
Looks like free money to me!
1. Odell Beckam more receptions than Eric Ebron at -137
2. Devonte Freeman more rushing yards than Peyton Barber at -192
3. Gerald Everett more receptions than Trey Burton duh!! At -122

What bookie are you using for those?

[UnderRated2017]

It's in the props builder. It's in mybookie, betdsi, and 5dimes. I'm in the US it's the only nfl player props I've found. But all these sites use the 3rd party called props builder. U will see it on mybookie half way down the page right before nfl.
All those early odds I quoted I got in Tuesday they are all have changed drastically now. Gotta get em quick!! I'm excited to see how it goes for me tomorrow I'll update u. Hope ur well. Good luck!!