When Dogs (ie. statistically inferior teams) consistently cover, projecting stat-based margins of victory becomes worse than irrelevant; they become downright misleading. Similarly, when away teams also cover at a whopping 64.5% ATS, and straight-up win at a rate of 56.5% SU, it’s way past time for a regression to the mean, but that’s never something you can take to the bank. With Dogs going 58.1% ATS and road teams steam-rolling the league, traditional variables are pretty much out the window, but then, traditional variables are what we have, so all there is to do is hunker down and wait out the storm. As a bettor, I intend to focus on college ball, and, although I’ll keep posting my NFL numbers, I’m giving the pros a pass for a while.
