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FWIW – The stats and records of teams for 2018 are, pretty much, the only numbers available to guide the bettor for the early part of the 2019 season, but naked Win/Loss numbers tell very little of a team’s 2018 record value. It seems only common sense that a win over a comparably worse team at home has a lesser value than a win over a better team away, seems, and I use a Win/Loss Record of Value in the model’s calculations. Each Win/Loss value is determined by a number of opponent factors; and, due to a programming deficiency (that, in my old age, I can’t figure out) is confined to the regular season only.
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Rule changes on kickoffs and other situations have had an impact on the league’s averaged margins of victory (MOV), and it seems to be dropping, but 3 points remains the champ.
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Dog spreads that cover for a win says more about line-setters than anything, but the fact that dogs went 52.1% ATS in 2018 overall and a whopping 53.8% ATS away, tells me that contrarians may have something going for them. Bear in mind when you like a dog and you’re debating on whether to go spread or money line, the bigger the line, the more the spread could matter, as line-setters are not usually that wrong, and you’ll likely need the points for a back-end cover. On the other hand, between 1 and 3 points, chances are the points won’t matter, and an ML bet is the way to go. Of course, in both cases, your hunch matters the most. Below are the lines most used by dogs to cover. Dogs that won outright are excluded.
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