Seeing 70% or more on Patriots -2.5 everywhere I go.................

[freestyle55]

and what makes this very interesting is nobody is moving to -3 let alone -3.5?????

that tells me books want as much money on the patriots as possible. if they didn't, they would move to -3.

This is the biggest game of the year (money wise). do you think books want to lose 70/30 split if the patriots win by 3+? ask yourself that question.

[Checkerboard]

It has been said by some on SBR here that books make so much on props and teasers they would still make money on SB even if NE covers and 70% action was taken in on NE minus points by game time.

It has also been said by some on here that LA money is waiting to put down and that the take on both sides will balance out closer by game time.

If I'm on LA, in a way I'd rather line stay at 2.5 because when and if it were to move to 3 I'd feel like now they're asking for LA money.

If I'm on NE minus 2.5 and the line never goes to 3, I'd start considering a hedge and/or conversion to NE money line.

There's also the notion that books 'let' 70% win as a promo. If I've never bet before and I take NE minus 2.5 and it comes in, my perception would be that sports betting is easy! Can't wait to do more of it!

If they go to 3, a lot of sharps with NE ml may middle with LA. Maybe books see game being close and don't want to encourage NE/LA middle wagering, to avoid exposing themselves to a 2 pt NE win for example.

Or it could just be straightforward as your post alludes to. Vegas likes its position on LA and would be more than happy to see a majority of dollars wagered on NE by game time.

[DoubleR90]

That's a good analysis Checkerboard.

Books are making so much on the SB via props and teasers they couldn't care less if they lose a bit on the game straight up. They are also banking a lot of that action on NE are rec players who bet once a year and will return to make a few more bets throughout the year if they win the SB.

The books are going to get theirs either way.

[The J-Dizzle]

No one that likes the Rams will put money on them right now. They are waiting for it to go to +3, that's why we see all this Patriots money.

[Letsgovols22]

Read the ESPN article. 7 digit bets coming in on Rams last 48 hours. %means nothing if the money evens out. Also, article said that Vegas was pleased with amount almost even on both sides. But, looks like sharps are on Rams. Also, MGM said their worst fear is Donald winning MVP. He opened at 70-1. Already down to 15-1

[Letsgovols22]

Also, line has dropped to 2 in a few places

[DoubleR90]

Read the ESPN article. 7 digit bets coming in on Rams last 48 hours. %means nothing if the money evens out. Also, article said that Vegas was pleased with amount almost even on both sides. But, looks like sharps are on Rams. Also, MGM said their worst fear is Donald winning MVP. He opened at 70-1. Already down to 15-1

I disagree with that assessment. The line originally opened at Rams -1 if you will remember. Shit load of sharp money came in early pushing the line from NE +1 all the way to NE -2.5.

There is a good amount of sharp action on both sides.

[BankrBIG]

-3/+3 already on bovada

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/new-england-patriots-vs-los-angeles-rams-3709358/matchup/

[Letsgovols22]

I disagree with that assessment. The line originally opened at Rams -1 if you will remember. Shit load of sharp money came in early pushing the line from NE +1 all the way to NE -2.5.

There is a good amount of sharp action on both sides.

Fair enough. But when you bet over 1 million, several bets, you are either sharp or ignorant lol. It was enough action to move the line