2018 Andrew Luck's SB Run = 2010 Aaron Rodgers SB Run

RiverDog21 · 01-08-19, 06:03 PM

You really like this one buddy? This is not a homer play? I picked 3 out of 4 games right last week and got burned betting against the colts so I may be on them too. I have a pretty strong lean for each of the other three divisional games this weekend but can’t get a feel for this one. I was looking for an excuse to bet the chiefs but kinda scared to go against the colts so I may just buy it to +7 and take the points.

Fred The Hammer · 01-08-19, 06:04 PM

Some weird futures imo:

Colts +3 at Chargers
Colts +2.5 at NE

Why would they be bigger dogs vs the Chargers?

Indy to beat the Chargers +1375
Indy to beat NE +696

I have $140 to win $301 this weekend on Indy. I think I have to play something on these 2 if you're spending $140 to win the game anyway. Not getting a ML like that next week.

Fred The Hammer · 01-08-19, 06:08 PM

Little bit of a homer play you could say, but this team is really rolling on both sides of the ball! They're #1 in 3rd conversions and the O-line is playing better and better every week. JJ Watt deflected a couple passes but that was it. Luck had a perfect pocket normally and Mack went for nearly 150 yds on the ground. The KC defense has sucked all year so I don't see that suddenly turning around. Mahomes could easily pull off a win in a shootout, but first time playoff starters have struggled! KC never beats Indy in a big playoff game (0-4) so they're putting alot of pressure on Mahomes already! I know because I lived in KC for a few years and still talk to friends there every week.

Seattle Slew · 01-08-19, 06:43 PM

I think you're spot on. Luck finally has a legit head coach. This is the worst matchup KC could get this weekend.

RiverDog21 · 01-08-19, 07:12 PM

Sometimes homer plays are the best. Kinda like clemson for me the past couple weeks. After all you should know the team you are a fan of better than any team. You’re write up makes a lot of sense to me. Chiefs definitely have the worst defense of any of the teams left and I’ve had my concerns about them for a while. We’ll probably be on the same side on this one. I haven’t made an official play yet but I’m leaning colts and the points. Good luck.

Fred The Hammer · 01-08-19, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by RiverDog21

Sometimes homer plays are the best. Kinda like clemson for me the past couple weeks. After all you should know the team you are a fan of better than any team. You’re write up makes a lot of sense to me. Chiefs definitely have the worst defense of any of the teams left and I’ve had my concerns about them for a while. We’ll probably be on the same side on this one. I haven’t made an official play yet but I’m leaning colts and the points. Good luck.

U2. Its ok to be a homer as long as you can be realistic at the same time. Thats the hard part. For instance I love Indiana basketball, but I know they're not really that good. Michigan -8.5 on Sunday was a piece of cake but I can't bet against them either. Just know when to stay away. If anything I avoid my fav teams too much. This big Colts 10-1 streak....only been on 3 of them I think?

Horse Player · 01-08-19, 09:56 PM

Wins against the Bills, Raiders, Jags, Titans, Dolphins, Texans, Cowboys, Giants, Titans, and Texans. Shutout by the Jags. That's the 10-1 streak. 5 teams with a winning record. Respectable streak. They scored over 30 twice. IMO, they'll have to hold KC to 4 or less touchdowns to win SU. KC scored 30+ in 7 of the last 10 games. To only get +215 ML seems skinny. Remember, #1 seeds win this game 75% of the time.

The kid is cool as Fonzie. Ahhhhhhh!! I'd want the free touchdown.

Good luck however you play it. You may be better off pressing a winner than playing those futures.

Pinoy-T-X · 01-08-19, 10:09 PM

I’d probably tease it to Colts +12 and Over 50.5

Fred The Hammer · 01-08-19, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by Horse Player

Wins against the Bills, Raiders, Jags, Titans, Dolphins, Texans, Cowboys, Giants, Titans, and Texans. Shutout by the Jags. That's the 10-1 streak. 5 teams with a winning record. Respectable streak. They scored over 30 twice. IMO, they'll have to hold KC to 4 or less touchdowns to win SU. KC scored 30+ in 7 of the last 10 games. To only get +215 ML seems skinny. Remember, #1 seeds win this game 75% of the time.

The kid is cool as Fonzie. Ahhhhhhh!! I'd want the free touchdown.

Good luck however you play it. You may be better off pressing a winner than playing those futures.

Defense wins championships! Seattle beat Denver. Denver beat Carolina. NE beat Kurt Warner if you go way back. Tampa beat Rich Gannon and all those TD passes with Oakland. Colts are 11th on defense and KC is 31st. Colts are also healthier then they've been in forever! Usually they can barely finish the season they have so many injuries. This year its Jack Doyle and thats about it.

thomorino · 01-08-19, 11:13 PM

That Green Bay defense was loaded with pro bowlers, woodson, Collins, Raji, colts defense has at most 2 pro bowlers. Colts are a different team outside of the dome.

Pinoy-T-X · 01-09-19, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by Pinoy-T-X

I’d probably tease it to Colts +12 and Over 50.5

I think KC wins but not more than 10. When you give Reid a bye week he usually wins.

House · 01-09-19, 01:34 AM

I have one question , who has the Colts played and beaten thats even worth a shit this year .. You do know they had the 28th weakest strength of schedule ? Go look how they've done vs teams with top ten pass rushes ,sacks and pressures

Then go look at the last 10 games they've played and see if any of those teams they've beaten were top 10 in sacks or pressures ... I'll save you a little time none of them but they lost to the only 3 they faced that were top 10 ... Chiefs are tied for first at sacks and pressures . Its gonna be snowing and Lucks Luck is gonna run out this week , he'll turn it over more than once also , its outside and its not Alex Smith at QB , its actually a totally different animal in Mahomes that wears out defenses that play zone ..... Chiefs cover first half -3 and second half -5 ... Book it . I'll be back

Pinoy-T-X · 01-09-19, 11:05 AM

I think who scores more, wins the game.

Fred The Hammer · 01-09-19, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by House

I have one question , who has the Colts played and beaten thats even worth a shit this year .. You do know they had the 28th weakest strength of schedule ? Go look how they've done vs teams with top ten pass rushes ,sacks and pressures

Then go look at the last 10 games they've played and see if any of those teams they've beaten were top 10 in sacks or pressures ... I'll save you a little time none of them but they lost to the only 3 they faced that were top 10 ... Chiefs are tied for first at sacks and pressures . Its gonna be snowing and Lucks Luck is gonna run out this week , he'll turn it over more than once also , its outside and its not Alex Smith at QB , its actually a totally different animal in Mahomes that wears out defenses that play zone ..... Chiefs cover first half -3 and second half -5 ... Book it . I'll be back

Jax still had a star loaded defense. They beat NE earlier. Hou won the division and Tenn was 9-5 against everyone but Indy. No Oaklands or Denvers in the Colts division. They played NE. They shut off Dallas and played Philly tough.

Heard a stat today...first time playoff QBs have lost 15 of their last 18 starts in the NFL. You can twist stats around anyway you want, but I like the Colts chances. The Colts are also very healthy...only missing Jack Doyle. If KC still had Kareem Hunt then I'd feel completely different.

Another reason I like Indy. If its 3rd/2 then there's a good chance Reich mans up and pounds it with the O-line! Andy Reid? Fat penetrate is soft as baby shit. He'd prob run some pick play and throw the ball. He's a soft coach and coaches a soft system! Thats the main reason Reid has never won anything.