Best Week 6 NFL Eliminator picks
Mackenzie Kraemer
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Welcome to the 2018 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick one team every week. If that team wins, you move on to the next week. If that team loses, your entry is eliminated. The only caveat is that you cannot use the same team twice. You can find all the rules here.
To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index. For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.
This week, FPI gives four teams a 76 percent or better chance to win, followed by a 10 percent drop-off for every other matchup. One of those teams, the Los Angeles Rams, is not included despite facing the struggling Denver Broncos. However, the Rams are a much better play next week when there are fewer quality options to choose from. The other three are likely going to be the chalkiest picks of the week, but they are also the safest.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
Back in Week 3, the Vikings fell victim to the biggest upset the NFL has seen in 23 years when they lost to the Buffalo Bills. That knocked out 57 percent of Eliminator Challenge participants. This week, they are once again double-digit favorites as they host a rookie quarterback, but FPI and Vegas still have them as the biggest favorites of the week. And yet, they are not being selected as often as the other big favorites.
FPI rates the Cardinals as the worst team in the NFL, so picking against them on the road will usually be a smart move. Plus, this is the most Minnesota will be favored in a game for the rest of the season, though they do get to host the Dolphins in Week 15.
Line: Vikings -10.5
FPI chance to win: 84 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 10 percent selected
Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills
While the Bills aren't quite as bad as they looked early in the year, they will continue to be a team to pick on when they go on the road. They rank last in the NFL in offensive and special teams efficiency. The Bills are averaging just 121.8 passing yards per game this season, on pace to be the fewest since the 2005 49ers. So, while the Texans' pass defense has been vulnerable this season, it's hard to see Buffalo taking advantage. The Texans won't be this big a favorite in any game remaining this season, though they, too, get a home game against the Dolphins, in Week 8.
Line: Texans -8.5
FPI chance to win: 78 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 24 percent selected
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers
C.J. Beathard is 1-6 in his career as a starting quarterback (2-5 ATS) despite playing five of those games at home. Aaron Rodgers is 17-0 outright as a favorite of six or more points at home against non-divisional opponents. As a result, the Packers are the second-biggest favorite of the week. The biggest reason to look elsewhere is that the Packers still have home games remaining against the Cardinals and Dolphins. That drops them down to third on this list, but they are still a strong play.
Line: Packers -9.5
FPI chance to win: 79 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 17 percent selected
Mackenzie Kraemer
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Welcome to the 2018 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick one team every week. If that team wins, you move on to the next week. If that team loses, your entry is eliminated. The only caveat is that you cannot use the same team twice. You can find all the rules here.
To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index. For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.
This week, FPI gives four teams a 76 percent or better chance to win, followed by a 10 percent drop-off for every other matchup. One of those teams, the Los Angeles Rams, is not included despite facing the struggling Denver Broncos. However, the Rams are a much better play next week when there are fewer quality options to choose from. The other three are likely going to be the chalkiest picks of the week, but they are also the safest.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona CardinalsBack in Week 3, the Vikings fell victim to the biggest upset the NFL has seen in 23 years when they lost to the Buffalo Bills. That knocked out 57 percent of Eliminator Challenge participants. This week, they are once again double-digit favorites as they host a rookie quarterback, but FPI and Vegas still have them as the biggest favorites of the week. And yet, they are not being selected as often as the other big favorites.
FPI rates the Cardinals as the worst team in the NFL, so picking against them on the road will usually be a smart move. Plus, this is the most Minnesota will be favored in a game for the rest of the season, though they do get to host the Dolphins in Week 15.
Line: Vikings -10.5
FPI chance to win: 84 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 10 percent selected
Houston Texans vs. Buffalo BillsWhile the Bills aren't quite as bad as they looked early in the year, they will continue to be a team to pick on when they go on the road. They rank last in the NFL in offensive and special teams efficiency. The Bills are averaging just 121.8 passing yards per game this season, on pace to be the fewest since the 2005 49ers. So, while the Texans' pass defense has been vulnerable this season, it's hard to see Buffalo taking advantage. The Texans won't be this big a favorite in any game remaining this season, though they, too, get a home game against the Dolphins, in Week 8.
Line: Texans -8.5
FPI chance to win: 78 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 24 percent selected
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ersC.J. Beathard is 1-6 in his career as a starting quarterback (2-5 ATS) despite playing five of those games at home. Aaron Rodgers is 17-0 outright as a favorite of six or more points at home against non-divisional opponents. As a result, the Packers are the second-biggest favorite of the week. The biggest reason to look elsewhere is that the Packers still have home games remaining against the Cardinals and Dolphins. That drops them down to third on this list, but they are still a strong play.
Line: Packers -9.5
FPI chance to win: 79 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 17 percent selected