Hotcross NFL 2018 Thread

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Last year my NFL thread went even money on the season (maybe down a unit??)

The rain/lightning delay for Opening Night in Philadelphia has given me time to put action down on this game.

Season picks will be tracked. I will spread my risk units from 1-5 as usual.


Thursday Sep.6

PHILADELPHIA +1 -110 // 5.50 units to win 5


I'm aware this line has moved huge to the Falcons, who look to have an even better offense than they had last year. Philadelphia likewise has a better, bolstered defense than what they had last year. I was just gonna watch this game, been running so bad in baseball, so want to see if I can get off to a lead in NFL here on Opening Night.

GL to all

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after Thursday night's win by Philadelphia at home (in what was an ugly flag-fest game), I'm using those 5 units on a single game.

Sunday Sept.9

INDIANAPOLIS -1 -110 // 5.50 units to win 5

Are there better picks on the card? Maybe...honestly I'm not very tuned-in to football yet. Andy Dalton leading the Bengals into Indianapolis with Andrew Luck seeking a triumphant return to the gridiron in his home stadium, with the public consensus all over the Bengals from what I've seen.

Yes, the Indy defense looks bad, but I'm confident Andrew Luck is thoroughly prepared for today, and will be protected by the beefed-up Colts offensive line. This is the man who was selected to take the torch for the Colts which Peyton Manning ran with all those years.

What reputation does Andy Dalton have? On the road at Indy, no less?

GL to all

[hotcross]

Week 1 record = 1-1 W/L for -0.50 units

Yeah, I went a little higher on the Colts than was warranted, but I was trying to use the Thursday night winnings to go up a decent amount for the season. Colts looked like they were gonna take that game on the final drive with time winding down...but the receiver fumbled a caught pass on a 3rd and 15 which woulda given them the first down inside the 15 yard line with about :25 seconds left. Wasn't meant to be.

Here's what I'm playing so far for Week 2 -

OVER 44.5 CAR@ATL // 1.10 units to win 1

SAN FRANCISCO -6 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1 (at home vs. Detroit)

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Sunday Sep.16

Week 2 - adding ::

GREEN BAY +120 ML // 1 unit to win 1.20

don't really care if Aaron Rodgers is "hurt" - he's always some degree of hurt. Division matchup against the good Vikings defense, but I'll try Packers at home for +plus odds. 49ers passed for 261 yards on the road against Minnesota last week.

PHILADELPHIA -3 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1

Philly on the road going against the banged-up Tampa Bay defense. I guess the spread is where it is because of the Week 1 performances by both teams.


DALLAS -3 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1

I know the Cowboys are bad on both sides of the ball, but I'm not buying anything has changed with the Giants either. Taking the home team for the Sunday night game.

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As for the Over in Atlanta already posted, looks like I pulled the trigger too early, it's currently down to 43.5 o/u which I don't understand.


GL to all

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Week 2 - adding more units to the Dallas pick::


DALLAS -3 -110 // 3.30 units to win 3

(in addition to 1.10 unit to win 1 = total of 4.40 units to win 4)

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Weeks 1 & 2 results:

--------Week 1--------
+5.00 PHILADELPHIA +1 -110 ---> score 18-12 home win vs ATL
-5.50 INDIANAPOLIS -1 -110 ---> score 34-23 home loss vs CIN

--------Week 2----------
+1.00 OVER 44.5 -110 CAR@ATL ---> score 31-24 ATL home win vs CAR
-1.10 SAN FRANCISCO -6 -110 ---> score 30-27 SF home win vs DET (SF closed -260 ML)
+0 push GREEN BAY +120 ML ---> score 29-29 home TIE vs MINN (GB closed +1.5 spread)
-1.10 PHILADELPHIA -3 -110 ---> score 27-21 road loss at TB (TB closed +130 ML)
+4.00 DALLAS -3 -110 ---> score 20-13 home win vs NYG

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Weeks 1 & 2 = +2.30 units (W/L = 3-3-1 = .500 pct)

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Week 3

UNDER 54 -110 NO@ATL // 1.10 units to win 1

HOUSTON -6 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1


Not liking much this week. Probably shouldn't play, but got these two 1-unit plays to sweat.

The Under in the Atlanta game is a basic fade of the talking heads in the DFS daily fantasy guys saying how this game is a bonanza of DFS scoring all over the place.

Houston is -6 and remember the Giants lost as 3 point dogs in Dallas last week, so now getting 6 points on the road again at Houston just looks like books begging for Giants backers and it seems to have worked.

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adding ::

ARIZONA +5.5 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1

might as well, seeing how the early games went so far

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Week 3 - Monday Night Football

PITTSBURGH +1.5 -110 // 2.20 units to win 2

This is the line I got. Took points instead of moneyline just because I pushed last time on the Packers ML with a thin line.

Looking at previous games, Steelers went the distance against a pretty good Cleveland defense in week 1, then got into a shootout vs Kansas City and came up a little short.

Meantime Tampa won their week 1 shootout at New Orleans, then beat Philly 27-20 the latter tells us very little about the Bucs defense because Philly's offense was not clicking.

With all Steelers turmoil, the remaining players should be motivated to shine under the lights for their own merits tonight.

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Week 3 results:

-1.10 UNDER 54 NO@ATL -110 ---> score 43-37 ATL home loss vs NO (Overtime)
-1.10 HOUSTON -6 -110 ---> score 27-22 home loss vs NYG (NYG closed +225 ML)
+1.00 ARIZONA +5.5 -110 ---> score 16-14 home loss vs CHI (CHI closed -245 ML)
+2.00 PITTSBURGH +1.5 -110 ---> score 30-27 road win at TB (PITT closed -105 ML)

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Week 3 = +0.80 units (W/L = 2-2 = .500 pct)

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OVERALL THREAD = +3.10 units (W/L = 5-5-1 = .500 pct)
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All 3 of my Sunday picks were really just for "action"

Pittsburgh for Monday Night felt more clear as a pick, so made it 2-units. Took me right up before kickoff before I figured out what to do with that game.

Gotta cut-out the action picks to improve.

[hotcross]

Thursday Sept.27

Week 4

LA RAMS -7 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1

This isn't overreaction to the Vikings home loss to Buffalo last Sunday...just think it is the correct side. Also just a mention - considered playing the Over 49 due to injuries on defense for both teams, but I look at that number and it feels too high.

GL to all

[hotcross]

Vikings have beat the Rams 5 in a row, dating back to 2009 (this includes last year's 24-7 home win by the Vikings)

Rams the better team this year. Expect this trend to end tonight.

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Sunday Sept.30

Week 4

ATLANTA -3.5 -110 // 2.20 units to win 2

DENVER +4 -110 // 2.20 units to win 2


this is what I have so far going into Sunday

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added for Sunday ::

HOUSTON -105 ML // 4.20 units to win 4

CLEVELAND +135 ML // 2 units to win 2.70


two road dogs right there.

That's all for me this week.

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gotta add one more big play on the Titans at home ::

TENNESSEE +130 ML // 5 units to win 6.50

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Titans defenders going out with injuries left and right. And their offense incapable of much of anything, couple times open receivers dropped passes. Eagles just went up 17-3. Game's over.

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Titans miraculously came back to win that game in Overtime.

Record 2-2-1 W/L/D for +6.30 units so far Week 4 with the 2-unit Denver +4 spread pick pending.

Wanted to make a few notes about today's results:

Managed to win both the big plays, 6.50 units won with Tennessee ML, and 4 units won with Houston ML.

Lost both 2-unit picks with Atlanta -3.5 and Cleveland ML.

All 4 of my picks today were really close games, with 3 of them decided in Overtime (Tennessee won, Houston won, Cleveland lost). All 3 of the Overtime games had multiple possessions necessary.

Atlanta lost by 1 point at home to Cincinnati when they scored on their final drive with time winding down. Had a bad read on this game, as the Falcons defense was riddled with injuries. Amazingly scoring slowed in the 3rd quarter, but most of the game Atlanta had no real resistance on defense, and had to rely on their offense trying to outscore the Bengals. Game score went back-and-forth and Atlanta had a 5-point lead before Cincinnati marched down for the go-ahead touchdown.

Cleveland blew a 14-point lead in Oakland in the 3rd quarter. They played bad on Special teams. The offensive play-calling was suspect, but I know what they were tying to do, as the numbers dictated passing against the Raiders. Picking Cleveland to win on the road in Baker Mayfield's first career start was risky, I thought the Raiders were bad enough to justify the pick, but probably should have not picked this game, or limited my exposure by just risking 1-unit.

Whatever happens on Monday Night, I will still profit on the week due to the 2 big picks winning. Overall though, I'm off-base with so many close games....

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Week 4 results:

+0 push LA RAMS -7 -110 ---> score 38-31 home win vs MINN
- 2.20 ATLANTA -3.5 -110 ---> score 37-36 home loss vs CIN (CIN closed +165 ML)
+0 push DENVER +4 -110 ---> score 27-23 home loss vs KC (KC closed -180 ML)
+4.00 HOUSTON -105 ML ---> score 37-34 road win at INDY (Overtime INDY FG, then 2x HOU FG)
- 2.00 CLEVELAND +135 ML ---> score 45-42 road loss at OAK (Overtime)
+6.50 TENNESSEE +130 ML ---> score 26-23 home win vs PHI (Overtime TD after PHI FG)

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Week 4 = +6.30 units (W/L = 2-2-2 = .500 pct)

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OVERALL THREAD = +9.40 units (W/L = 7-7-3 = .500 pct)
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not bad with +9.40 units won for a .500 win percentage

happy about the units, but need to improve on the win percentage - that would also net more profit

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Sunday Oct.7

Week 5

MIAMI +220 ML // 1 unit to win 2.20

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That game film should be forever used as instructions on how to gift wrap a game and give it away to the opponent you're beating 17-0. Bad coaching, play calling, the penalties the Dolphins took multiple times are a reflection on the coach. Miami really had no passing attack other than dump-offs which accounted for their successful drives.

Ahead 14-0 at the half, then 17-0 to begin the 3rd quarter, then 17-3, start the coaching film with 1:22 remaining in the third quarter.

• 3rd & 3 at MIA 43
  
  (1:22 - 3rd) (Shotgun) A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to C.Uzomah. PENALTY on MIA-T.McDonald, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 43 - No Play.
  
  
  Miami committed stupid penalties all day, and it caught up with them at the end of the 3rd quarter, and continued to snowball from there.
  
  It's just one unit, not a big deal, but that was an epic meltdown by the whole team. Tannehill proceeded to throw an ill-advised pick-6 when he was about to be sacked. Anyway, enough details. That's why I didn't want the spread in this game, it wouldn't have helped either.

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Week 5 - Monday Night Football

UNDER 51.5 -108 WSH@NO // 1.08 units to win 1

Think the Redskins will want to slow the game pace with a lot of running game and short passes. Also, 'Skins defense should limit the Saints more than other opponents have been able to. Washington isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut either.

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adding ::

UNDER 26.5 -110 second half WSH@NO // 1.10 units to win 1

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Week 5 results:

- 1.00 MIAMI +220 ML ---> score 27-17 road loss at CIN (CIN closed -6 spread)
- 1.08 UNDER 51.5 -108 WSH@NO ---> score 43-19 WSH road loss at NO
+1.00 UNDER 26.5 -110 second half WSH@NO ---> score 17-6 NO wins second half

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Week 5 = -1.08 units (W/L = 1-2 = .333 pct)

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OVERALL THREAD = +8.32 units (W/L = 8-9-3 = .470 pct)
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pitiful effort by the Redskins, on a night which Drew Brees got the all-time Passing Yards record

[hotcross]

Week 6 - Thursday Night Football

Thurs. Oct.11

NY GIANTS +112 ML // 3 units to win 3.36

Line has been moving quite a bit. The spread on this game moved from Giants +3 down to +1, now at +1.5 available.

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Week 6

Sun. Oct.14

TAMPA BAY +3 -110 // 2.20 units to win 2
TAMPA BAY +143 ML // 1.40 units to win 2

Bucs coming off the Bye week, Jameis Winston will start for the first time this season. Both teams are banged up and have played horrendous defense. Bucs lost 2 games in a row, while Atlanta lost 3 in a row after losing on the road at Pittsburgh last week. Common knowledge is Atlanta and Matt Ryan play better at home, but I am not being fooled this time, as the Bucs had an extra week of recovery time.

Interestingly, Winston started 2 games on the road in Atlanta previously, winning them both on 12/6/2015 and 9/11/2016. Will see if this trend does indeed continue today. I think the recipe is right him to repeat it.

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well that's a waste of another 3.60 risked. This game is two bad defenses, plus a QB mismatch with Winston looking very rusty, while Matt Ryan keeps throwing it all over the field with little resistance.

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Week 6 results:

- 3.00 NY GIANTS +112 ML ---> score 34-13 home loss vs PHI (PHI closed -1.5 spread)
- 2.20 TAMPA BAY +3 -110 ---> score 34-29 road loss at ATL
- 1.40 TAMPA BAY +143 ML

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Week 6 = -6.60 units (W/L = 0-3)

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OVERALL THREAD = +1.72 units (W/L = 8-12-3 = .400 pct)
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Been running ice cold ever since baseball season.

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Week 7

Sun. Oct.21

TENNESSEE +255 ML // 1 unit to win 2.55

CINCINNATI +235 ML // 1.70 units to win 4

CLEVELAND +3.5 -115 // 3.45 units to win 3

UNDER 41.5 -115 DAL@WSH // 3.45 units to win 3

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Week 7 results:

- 1.00 TENNESSEE +255 ML ---> score 20-19 road loss vs LAC (LAC closed -6.5 spread)
- 1.70 CINCINNATI +235 ML ---> score 45-10 road loss at KC (KC closed -6.5 spread)
+3.00 CLEVELAND +3.5 -115 ---> score 26-23 road loss at TB (Overtime)
+3.00 UNDER 41.5 -115 DAL@WSH ---> score 20-17 WSH home win vs DAL

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Week 7 = +3.30 units (W/L = 2-2 = .500 pct)

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OVERALL THREAD = +5.02 units (W/L = 10-14-3 = .416 pct)
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Tennessee went for the 2-point conversion at the very end, instead of just kicking the extra point to tie the game and force Overtime.... which I was glad to see because I only had the Moneyline and not the spread, but they called bad passing plays TWICE in fact, because the first try was a Charger penalty.

[pimike]

Plus is still good.

Nice job

[hotcross]

Week 8 = made no plays, just didn't have a good grasp on the games, and focusing more time on hockey

my BTP picks went 1-4

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Week 9

CLEVELAND +8 -107 // 1.07 units to win 1

UNDER 46.5 -107 ATL@WSH // 1.07 units to win 1

DALLAS -4 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1

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adding ::

DETROIT +190 ML // 1 unit to win 1.90

DETROIT +4.5 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1

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adding ::

DENVER -1 -115 // 4.60 units to win 4

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Week 10

UNDER 44.5 -110 DET@CHI // 2.20 units to win 2

LA RAMS -9 -110 // 1.10 units to win 1