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Survivor Week 1
Welcome boys and girls, I hope you had a great Labor Day weekend! A large audience of people think that the day after Labor Day is one of the more depressing days of the year. This is because summer is over, school is back, and Winter is on the Horizon. Howevah (Stephen A. Smith voice), I believe optimism is all around us! Fall is back soon (September 22nd, I didn’t know that until I googled it), which usually brings the best weather of the year. Fall also means that Football is back! That means Football is on TV all weekend, constant gambling and drinking, Fantasy Football, Survivor Pools, Tailgates, and more! I find a lot of other days more depressing than the day after Labor Day. A few include the day after the Super Bowl and the day after New Year’s Day. But let's put a vote to it, comment below on the most miserable day of the year.
Anyways, I will be doing a weekly Survivor Pool preview of matchups I like. Follow me on this journey as I make my weekly selections. I will be picking the matchup, not the spread because I am under the assumption that most Survivor Pools are run like this. I will be giving 1 low risk lock pick and 2 medium risk picks per week. Once it gets later in the year I will be doing some higher risk picks when we all get desperate. So here we go:
Low Risk Lock of the Week presented by Saverio’s Master Locks
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s easy to look at the schedule and the spreads and see that the Saints are at home facing Ryan Fitzpatrick. They’re almost 10 point favorites and I really can’t see them losing this game. The only reason to not pick this game is if you wanted to save them for future weeks like week 2 vs. Cleveland or week 5 vs. Washington. But one could make the argument that the spread in those games will not be as high as this game. According to Pro Football Focus, the Saints have one of the best offensive lines in Football. They also have a 3 headed monster at the skills positions with Drew Brees at QB, Alvin Kamara at RB, and Michael Thomas at WR . The Bucs do have a good rush stopping defense but their secondary is one of the worst in the league. Somehow Chris Conte starts in their secondary and he was terrible 5 years ago when he was faster and more athletic. This game should not be close. Feel good about the Saints in this one and celebrate with some Bourbon, Jambalaya, and watch maybe the most underrated Disney movie of all time in Princess and the Frog.
Other Low Risk Picks: Packers vs. Bears, Rams @ Raiders (scares me more than the others)
Medium Risk Picks
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
I know, I know. I am asking you to trust Joe Flacco. But Baltimore is a 7 point favorite at home this weekend in a juicy matchup against Buffalo. Obviously it’s no lock the Ravens win this game, but using Baltimore this early in a survival pool is advantageous in the long run. You save all the elite teams and cross Joe Flacco off the list. Baltimore has one of the better defenses in the league with great run stoppers and an excellent secondary led by Jimmy Smith and Eric Weddle. They also have the luxury of playing Nathan Peterman and the Bills who have pretty much no offensive talent besides Lesean McCoy. The Bills also have one of, if not THE worst offensive line in the league. If you are feeling even a little risky, I would take the Ravens this week. The last time Peterman started he threw 5 interceptions and 6 completions. I think the Ravens channel their inner Ray Lewis and murder the Bills on Sunday.
Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets
Similar to the above write up about the Ravens, this is about saving some of the more elite teams in the league for later in the year. I don’t usually trust the Lions but they are at home against a rookie QB in Sam Darnold. The Lions strength is their pass attack and the Jets have maybe the worst pass rush in the league which will allow Stafford to sit back and throw all night. The Lions also have the 8th ranked offensive line in the league according to Pro Football Focus, furthering the point that Stafford will have plenty of time to throw. The weak point of the Lions is their front seven, but the Jets also have a terrible offensive line so that mitigates the risk of picking the Lions. Trust the Lion King!
Also bonus video Tony Scheffler (former Detroit TE) vs Barstool all time classic:
What team you pick may depend on a few things. Looking ahead to next week the two juiciest games look to be Cardinals @ Rams and Browns @ Saints. So if you are confident in the Rams next week against the Cardinals I would pick the Saints this week. If you get a little nervous about the division rival stuff, I would roll with the Ravens or Lions and save the Saints for next week.
*Tony’s official pick is the Ravens as I will be likely saving the Saints for next week when they play the Browns at home.