Week 1 NFL Moneyline Bets

[Keepit100]

Posting here with the 4 ML bets I think are the best 4 games to isolate and parlay for week 1. I usually bet on Heritage but will be in Vegas starting Thursday so here we go. In order of my confidence in that team I picked winning unless you change my mind. I'm open to discussing my picks and can handle the criticism or the hate. I usually only bet ML's on NCAA FB, MLB, NFL, and NHL. I usually bet 2 or 3 game parlays in MLB like today I'm betting the Red Sox and Mariners. I like to isolate the 2 easiest wins imo and bet them hard but like anything betting and picking winners isn't easy.

The lines are MGM lines as of now.

1. Minnesota-250 2. Baltimore-280 3. LA Rams-200 4.Pittsburgh-240 5. Jacksonville-170
6. New Orleans-450 7. Green Bay-360 8. Detroit-280

1. San Fran is overhyped so far in my opinion and Minnesota only got better in the offseason. I think easy win for the Vikes.
2. Baltimore Not sold on Flacco but Buffalo is terrible.
3. Rams are legit and the Raiders got worse obviously with the Mack trade I think LA scores 30 in this game and I don't see the Raiders scoring even close to that with Cooper who can't catch the ball and the rest of that squad.
4. Cleveland is improved but not Pittsburgh good.
5. Jacksonville is always a concern for me due to Bortles being the qb but Giants no good and Jax has a top 3-5 defense based on who's opinion you respect about football knowledge.
6. Saints are good and TBay isn't but I almost like Fitz more than Winston either way Saints all day
7. I liked Green Bay much more before Chicago got Mack but still like the Packers.
8. Stafford is great and the Jets well you know they are the Jets How many offensive players can you name on the Jets enough said.
I'm pretty much sold on betting the first 3 teams I listed but the 4th one is a toss up basically between 4 through 8 so I was hoping to get some feedback from you guys.

[Keepit100]

If betting $500 on Rams, Vikings, Ravens, and Jags payout is $1763.

If you had to bet 1 underdog who would it be? My pick right now would be Atlanta over the Eagles.

[Yankfan4life2]

Betting $500 on Rams, Vikings, Ravens, and Jags payout is $1763.

If you had to bet 1 underdog who would it be? My pick right now would be Atlanta over the Eagles.

I got a similar parlay but going vikings and jags is extremely risky, I would've rather gone packers and chargers but good luck bro

[Keepit100]

I got a similar parlay but going vikings and jags is extremely risky, I would've rather gone packers and chargers but good luck bro

Thanks for the response
Why do you think the chargers are less risky than the jags? I have the packers as the possible 4th pick but Mack changes the game. I think the chiefs are a better team than the giants or do you like betting against a qb with little nfl experience. I also think the jags are better compared to the chargers and I also think the chiefs are better than the giants.

[agendaman]

ravens opened at -3 now -7 and rams opened at pk. now -4 lotta sharp money there i love seattle 49rs tenn. and carolina gl now

[Keepit100]

ravens opened at -3 now -7 and rams opened at pk. now -4 lotta sharp money there i love seattle 49rs tenn. and carolina gl now

Gl also why do you like san fran over Minnesota? The other teams you picked are games that I think are tough to pick either way.

[stonebanks]

Betting $500 on Rams, Vikings, Ravens, and Jags payout is $1763.

If you had to bet 1 underdog who would it be? My pick right now would be Atlanta over the Eagles.

I would remove Jaggz and replace with chargers -2 or saints on a reduced spread - something around 5. Giants with a new running game and Solder in their O line, expect points to be scored.

[Keepit100]

I would remove Jaggz and replace with chargers -2 or saints on a reduced spread - something around 5. Giants with a new running game and Solder in their O line, expect points to be scored.

I don't bet spreads so the Chargers are in the running for a ML bet against the Chiefs. Chargers scare me with their early season struggles. I think the Giants are overhyped and overrated already, plus Solder is like the 8th best Tackle in the league. He is good but he is no Orlando Pace or Ogden back in the day. The Jags D is great maybe if the Giants were not playing a top ten team then I would be worried about picking against the Giants. I think the Jags will run all over them. D Line is a joke for Giants and Ogletree misses tackles like all day.

[Keepit100]

I'm definitely sold on my top 3 ML bets of Ravens, Rams, Vikings unless some really bad news comes out before the games start. I like NO but don't like paying that big of a price -450 right now and almost all of the other books in Vegas have the line worse at like -500 as of now. Might go Lions as my 4th still doing some research. Several people don't like the Jags I'm guessing because of Bortles which I totally understand and I'm also included in that group but man that Defense is so good in Jax. Some people don't like the Vikes against the 49ers which I don't understand basically the Vikes are the Jags D with a way better qb and wr's in Minnesota compared to Jax. Honestly I don't think the 49ers will score more than 17-20 against the Vikes. I like this discussion we are having about teams.

[stonebanks]

Ravens Rams Vikings looks solid. Vikings have only strengthened, ravens will get the job done, expensive price though if you are taking them ML but I cant see how they don't win. Rams look like a steal. I'm staying off the jags giants game.

lol I did have the same thoughts on the chargers, they can go 5-0 or 0-5.

Thoughts on Arizona? I think they will take the W over Washington.

[agendaman]

well keep100 i am a lifelong 49r fan yeh pickin them with my heart i guess but they finished last season going 6-0 signed grappolo to 137m dollar contract i see lotta parity in nfl this yr. adding raiders and chiefs to my picks

[Keepit100]

Ravens Rams Vikings looks solid. Vikings have only strengthened, ravens will get the job done, expensive price though if you are taking them ML but I cant see how they don't win. Rams look like a steal. I'm staying off the jags giants game.

lol I did have the same thoughts on the chargers, they can go 5-0 or 0-5.

Thoughts on Arizona? I think they will take the W over Washington.

The Arizona game is tricky and hard to predict so I'm staying away from that game but If I had to pick I would pick Arizona but I'm not touching that game and any of the 3 possible bets. I think week 1 has better games to isolate and pick from imo that involve little stress trying to figure out which team to bet. That is why I'm also not even considering the Carolina/Dallas game because that seems like a tossup to me just like the Cincy game, or the Miami game, or the Philly Thursday game.
I'm basically ML the 3 picks I discussed and then a 4th ML parlay out of the teams I discussed about earlier in this thread. My way of thinking about betting is I look at the whole schedule for that day and then try to isolate the easiest wins and then bet those games imo. Obviously I just pick teams off of my analytics and confidence in those isolated teams or games that give me the best chance to win my bet. No easy choices when it comes to betting sports but I like my chances. So for week 1 nfl its Vikes, Rams, Ravens. I'm probably going to make multiple parlay bets involving those 3 teams and a 4th undecided team out of Packers, Jags, Lions, Saints, Steelers. I'm bringing 9K to Vegas so I should be able to make a few bets unless I lose it all betting baseball before Saturday and then college football on Saturday but I don't think that will happen. Could also lose it playing poker at the Wynn or Aria that is basically 2 buyins for the stakes I play at poker but I'm a way better poker player than sports bettor. I play poker and sports bet very similar with regards to analytics, mathematical data, and discipline. Anyways way too much babbling by me with this post.

[Keepit100]

well keep100 i am a lifelong 49r fan yeh pickin them with my heart i guess but they finished last season going 6-0 signed grappolo to 137m dollar contract i see lotta parity in nfl this yr. adding raiders and chiefs to my picks

I never bet with my heart learned that from me being an OU football fanatic over the years. NFL definitely has a ton of parity due to the salary cap but the Vikes are basically the best team in the NFC which is obviously up for discussion. Sorry to tell you San Fran isn't even in that debate but then again it is the NFL and any team can beat any team on any given Sunday. God I hate cliches but that one fits. San Fran did go 3-0 on the road during that streak at the end of last year but they beat Chicago by 1, Houston without a qb and the rams with a backup qb starting for them in a meaningless game. FYI they finished 5-1 in their last 6 games. Minnesota was 7-1 last year at home and I expect them to have a very similar home record this year. I don't see the 49ers going up to Minnesota and winning.

[Yankfan4life2]

Thanks for the response
Why do you think the chargers are less risky than the jags? I have the packers as the possible 4th pick but Mack changes the game. I think the chiefs are a better team than the giants or do you like betting against a qb with little nfl experience. I also think the jags are better compared to the chargers and I also think the chiefs are better than the giants.

Rookie qb on the road against a top 5 defense and a really good offense. Cheifs D will be terrible this season and I'm really down on them as a whole this year.

Giants are a team I'm really high on (cowgirls fan btw) and they're at home against blake bortles. OBJ + barkley will transform that offense and cause havoc. As for the packers. I do like bears to cover but packers should win.

[boss_of_um]

Would rather play Chargers at home than Jags on the road. Even though Chargers dont really have a home field advantage.