NFL Spread Picks (2018)

[MoonPond]

Rules: All bets will be made on 5Dimes. All bets will be selected at -110 the moment they are.

Cardinals pk
The Cardinals aren't bad, they just play in a touch division. Alex Smith won't be able to put up enough points to make up for the Redskins' subpar defense. Bradford is undervalued due to his injury proneness, but he can at least play game 1 of the regular season.

Dolphins +1
Titans were the beneficiary of lots of close wins last season, the current spread reflects the bookmakers' understanding that many bettors will not be aware of that. And Mike Vrabel was a bad hire to replace Mularkey.

Buccaneers/Saints o49.5
Since Winston was suspended the first three games of the season, Fitzpatrick will be the starter. Fitzpatrick will do everything he can to prove he can supplant Winston as starter for Tampa Bay, and that means he's going to play very risky. There may be a lot of interceptions and short fields for the Saints, couple that in with them being pissed over their playoff loss, they can easily put up 30 or more.

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49ers +6
Whether or not their strong finish to last season was a fluke, the team has faith in Shanahan and will go into Minnesota with confidence. They'll win outright or keep the game close. If the 49ers implode, it'll be later on in the season as opposed to now.
Texans/Patriots u51.5
Both teams have upgraded at defensive coordinator; Patricia costed the Patriots a SuperBowl win last season, and the Texans' defense played awful with Vrabel when Romeo Crennel moved from defensive coordinator to assistant head coach. Romeo has his previous slot and now has JJ Watt fully healed. With Brady's declining arm strength the passing game will be shorter and may burn more clock, while Deshaun could be rusty.

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Bills/Ravens o40.5
Bills' offense will be better than expected, and the rule changes favor the 'over' more this season which is not yet accounted for. Scoring 41 or more points is not asking for much.

Buccaneers +9.5
Brees is aging and the window of opportunity for New Orleans to be a Superbowl team is quickly waning. The Sean Payton coaching tree is reaching its expiration date. It won't be dire enough to lose, but I don't trust them to beat Tampa by two scores.

Redskins/Cardinals u43.5
Alex Smith now leads the Redskins and the Cardinals are looking to give Adrian Peterson the starting nod. There may be lots of ball control in this game, which will burn the clock faster. Expect long, slow drives.

Lions -6.5
I don't think Darnold looked very good in the preseason. I thought Bridgewater actually outplayed him outright, and that this move is more of a sign of rebuilding to let Darnold get experience. Lions' defense will dominate them.

Rams/Raiders u48.5
Gruden will stick to fundamentals, he'll put a stop to the fast tempo of the Rams' offense. I also am taking the 'under' for its value as I believe the loss of Khalil Mack will not be as much of a downgrade as the public thinks.

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Chiefs/Chargers u47.5
It's unknown how productive Mahomes will be. Then when you take into consideration Reid's conservative playcalling and Rivers' early season struggles, envisioning 48 or more points being scored becomes a hard sell.

Colts -1
The colts were one of the only teams with a truly legitimate head coach hire this offseason. If Luck plays, he doesn't even need to be fully healthy to outplay Andy Dalton. The largest downside to Luck is his risk of re-injury, which is fairly irrelevant.

[MoonPond]

Cardinals pk loss
Dolphins +1 win
Buccaneers/Saints o49.5 win
49ers +6 loss
Texans/Patriots u51.5 win
Bills/Ravens o40.5 win
Buccaneers +9.5 win
Redskins/Cardinals u43.5 win
Lions -6.5 loss
Rams/Raiders u48.5 win
Chiefs/Chargers u47.5 loss
Colts -1 loss
Week 1: 7-5

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Ravens pk
Dalton has a bad track record in primetime games, and the Ravens will seek retribution for getting knocked out of the playoffs last season. And John Harbaugh's teams tend to be better than Marvin Lewis'. The line seems suspicious if you chalk up the Ravens' win in week 1 to Peterman, but if you look closely, coverage was very tight and the Ravens' defenders won a lot of contested balls.

Chiefs/Steelers u52
Too little data on Mahomes to suggest he'll keep up a high level of play, and Andy Reid is known to make conservative play calls that favor low-scoring games. Then factor in Roethlisburger's struggles in week 1 and the Steelers' defense(under Tomlin, it's usually strong). This is a good time to take the bet since this is the highest the line will be.

[MoonPond]

Panthers +6.5
I'm not convinced that the Falcons' struggles on offense were due to playing in Philadelphia. Ron Rivera is a little spotty, yet he generally produces decent results. The game may be close.

Eagles/Buccaneers o44
I expect Fitzpatrick to continue his stellar play the rest of the season. Based off their last game, asking for 43 or less points seems like a stretch, even without Desean Jackson.

Browns +9.5
This is a tough choice. The way the Browns failed to win in week 1 in spite of getting 6 turnovers was pretty terrible, and a lot of it seemed like a fluke. Still... With their stout defense and Tyrod Taylor being consistent with committing very few turnovers, I see them keeping it within a touchdown.

Cardinals +13
Their week 1 result was quite a difference from the way they were last season; solid, average. So I'll assume their blowout loss was a product of underachieving, and that the odds that were set are an overreaction. Losing Bruce Arians as head coach was a downgrade, but not a huge one.

Patriots -1
Vegas will be heavily on the Jaguars to win this, therefore this appears to be a trap line. But sometimes winning a bet means walking directly into a trap. And the Jaguars' formula for winning football games is simply not sustainable.

Raiders/Broncos o46
Khalil Mack's performance against the Packers demonstrates how big of a loss this was for Oakland's defense. On offense, Gruden will find ways to generate points, and Keenum's quarterbacking involves high productivity with many turnovers.

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Texans -3.5
The Texans overall have more talent on both sides of the ball, Titans' offense has been anemic and their new headcoach hire was questionable. Bill O'Brien has a reliable win/loss track record where he beats weaker teams.

Buccaneers +3(+105)
Nick Foles' struggles are conspicuous. He's known for being streaky, yet, his only two bad seasons were on the Rams(Keenum was bad there, too) and in 2014 where he actually led his team to a 6-2 record. The only logical conclusion is that Foles' preseason injury never fully healed and is lingering, and that's why I'll lean Buccaneers.

[MoonPond]

Vikings -3(+100)
Line moved in favor of the Vikings when it was revealed Packers would be playing. It appears to be a trap line used to get public money on the Packers, leading me to the suspicion that Rodgers isn't in condition to play. Deshone Kizer has looked pretty awful as backup with the little time he's received, if Rodgers at any point in the game can't play then they're in trouble.