Westgate SuperContest Line Variance Results

[barnstorm]

Does anyone know what the results have been for picking with the Westgate SuperContest Line moves?

There are always a few picks where the line may move away from the Westgate SuperContest's opening and static lines.

Does it pay to go with some of those picks if you are in the Contest?

There may be some trend where it pays to go with the line variance, maybe it's better if it is a Home Dog, Away Dog, Home Fav or Away Fav?

I'm sure this has been tracked but I've tried a lot of Google searches and can't find what I'm looking for on a search for "SuperContest Line variance."

Thanks.

[petermoon]

I am a proxy for the Las Vegas SuperContest. There is no such thing as "line variance".

Westgate creates a contest line based loosely on the opening line at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Had you gone WITH the majority of SuperContest players, you would have hit 50% of your plays.

Had you gone AGAINST the SuperContest majority, you also would have won 50% of the time.

The point spread reduces wagering on any game to a 50/50 proposition.

Why else do you think they let people bet $50,000 a game?

[barnstorm]

There is line variance on at least a couple of games every week in the SuperContest. By that I mean, some of the games are posted at a certain line and remain static at that line even though the actual, dynamic, public line will move half a point, or a full point or more up until the Saturday 11 AM deadline of the Contest. Many players are naturally tempted to take a team at the static Contest line of -3 when the actual line has moved to -4. My question is whether this a profitable trend or not.