Cheme82 NFL Plays

slacker00 · 06-29-09, 04:35 AM

Wow, man, I disagree with you on almost every one of these. The only one's I strongly agree about are NE and Indy under. Some of the plays, I don't have a strong feel either way.

My biggest disagreement is Chicago under 8.5, I guess you must really be down on Cutler. Otherwise, Seattle under 7.5, I'm not sure what you are seeing there, the team should be back off the IR and ready to go back to dominating that weak division. Dallas under 9, I'm curious where you're going with this, besides the horrible division, this team has a lot of upside, one drawback is that I can see Dallas landing on the 9. TB over 6.5, ugh, this is my #32 team this year, they are rebuilding and a tough division. Jax underrated, Mai overrated, Jets yuck, Cincy underrated, StL underrated. Plus, remember it's an 8-8 league, you've really got to hate a team to pick them under 5.5 because 6 wins is reasonable even for the most marginal teams.

NFLMAN · 06-29-09, 06:01 AM

You'll only win if this year plays out exactly the same as last year.

Cheme82 · 06-29-09, 09:27 AM

slacker00: I don't hate any teams. Well maybe if they cost me money I hate them for a little but then I forget about it. If you disagree with most of the picks then you should put some cash fading them, you'll be getting great value sice most of your bets will be at + juice

NFLMAN: Let us hope for a repeat from last year then. Specially if I hit at at a >70% clip too

MrMonkey · 06-29-09, 09:55 AM

Originally posted by cheme82

slacker00: I don't hate any teams. Well maybe if they cost me money I hate them for a little but then I forget about it. If you disagree with most of the picks then you should put some cash fading them, you'll be getting great value sice most of your bets will be at + juice

NFLMAN: Let us hope for a repeat from last year then. Specially if I hit at at a >70% clip too

This would be sweet! Cheme, wish I had joined couple months earlier last year since I missed alot of your action, but 2009 is almost here!

Cheme82 · 06-29-09, 02:02 PM

Yes it is Mr. Monkey. And this time you'll be here for the whole thing.

NFLMAN · 06-29-09, 06:08 PM

Scientifically:
Would like to throw this in that teams that play historically bad the previous year (less than 2 wins) have had the propensity to bounce back the next year.

The Dolphins in 2007 were 1-15 and played in the playoffs the next year.
The 2001 Panthers were 1-15 and then won 7 games the next year
The 2000 Chargers were 1-15 and then 5-9 the next year.
The 1996 Jets were 1-15 and 9-7 in 1997.
The 1991 Colts went 1-15 and came back 9-7 in 1992.
The 1990 Patriots went 1-15 and were 6-10 in 1991.
The 1989 Cowboys were 1-15 and then 7-9 in 1990.

TAKE: 2009 Detroit Lions over 4.5 wins -130 (Also basing this on a rookie QB / rookie HC angle that resulted in wild cards for Baltimore and Atlanta last year, providing that the Lions have enough good sense to start the rookie in week one)

slacker00 · 06-30-09, 05:14 AM

Great writeup NFLMan!

I completely agree, except don't dismiss Culpepper as dog meat. He'll be playing for his NFL career as a starter! It's do or die for Culpepper. If he can't beat out a rookie, he might as well retire or else spend the rest of his NFL life carrying a clipboard and making the veteran QB league minimum. I think there's some bite left in that dog and he won't quit without a fight.

NFLMAN · 06-30-09, 06:59 AM

With all due respects, I disagree. In fact, I don't understand the amount of sentiment Culpepper still endures. Not just from the fans, but from the coaches. The last time he was injured in Minnesota, he deserted the team. Instead of joining his teammates on the sidelines the way an injured player does, he went home midway through the season not to be seen or heard from again.

That isn't the sign of a good team player.

I saw him play in Miami, Oakland and finally Detroit last year. I still can't believe that anyone signed him. How could he have passed the tests? It was obvious that he was no longer playing at the same speed as the other players on the field. He seemed to be the only player that was moving in slow motion. Obviously, they signed him for his name. So the typical fan would come to the park.

He is so well-done.

slacker00 · 06-30-09, 09:42 AM

NFLMan, good points. Maybe you're right.

Culpepper's first 5 years in the league were second to none, with him having an NFL MVP caliber year in 2004 except for the fact that Peyton Manning happened to break every NFL record in the book that year. Granted Culpepper was throwing to some awesome weapons and surrounded by a great team all around.

Then the injuries came. That knee he got in Minny probably would have ended a career for many guys. He's never really been right since then. But I chalk it up to the fact that he's been on bad teams, getting reinjured, learning new offenses and never really given a fair chance to succeed.

Granted, Detroit is just another bad team and new offense for him to learn. But he's got a whole offseason to get right, get confidence, sort it out however he needs to with regard to coaches, teammates, even the community. Plus, he does have a Megatron WR to throw to, which he hasn't really had since his great years in Minny. I've gotta give him a break for his 0-5 in Detroit, coming in cold on such a terrible team.

If anything, I see Culpepper pushed to thie limit with the rookie looking over his shoulder. Culpepper is a veteran enough player that he knows what it takes to grab the starting job and hold it, at least as long as he can. Because once the rookie gets in the game, he's never coming out.

Culpepper is living in the moment in 2009, playing for his next contract as well! For me, all of these things add up to a great year for Culpepper as long as he can stay on the field. As for the rookie, I think Schwartz will give Culpepper some rope as long as he's leading the team and winning some games. As soon as the Lions get 4 or 5 games behind .500, then the rookie will go. Culpepper will start week 1 or die trying, IMHO. But I accept your opinion that Culpepper is already "dead" as an NFL QB. We'll see. Should be fun to see this one unravel.

Cheme82 · 06-30-09, 05:52 PM

I agree with you bro, the rookie won't start until about the middle of the season.

slacker00 · 07-01-09, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by cheme82

I agree with you bro, the rookie won't start until about the middle of the season.

The buy week is week 7. So, I think the rookie probably starts week 8. The Lions start with a brutal schedule: @Saints, Vikings, Redskins, @Bears, Steelers, @Packers, bye. I suppose if Culpepper can get them to the bye at 2-4, he might hang on by his fingernails. But if they are 1-5 or 0-6, the rookie starts after the bye.

Now if Culpepper can get to 2-4, maybe surprising the Redskins and stealing one in Green Bay, Culpepper should like his chances with the Rams @ Detroit week 8, if he manages to keep his job through the bye. That will give him a fighting chance to hold on maybe through Thanksgiving with @Seahawks, @Vikings, Browns, Packers. If they are 4-7 or worse, then the rookie will finish out the last 5 games.

But if Culpepper gets them this far with 5-6 or better, he might stay in there until mathematical elimination from the playoffs. Finishing up: @Bengals, @Ravens, Cards, @49ers, Bears. Obviously, it would take a miracle for the Lions to get into the playoffs, but if Culpepper can recapture his youth, he might play out a nice string of games until the inevitable elimination happens.

Cheme82 · 08-13-09, 01:06 PM

Ok, here we go guys:

Thursday 8/13/9 Plays:

Washington +3 -115 $100
Oakland -2 -105 $100

Good luck.

MrMonkey · 08-13-09, 01:10 PM

Cheme my friend, wasn't here then, but did you bet preseason last year also? Good luck tonight!

Cheme82 · 08-14-09, 05:14 PM

No sir, just regular season.

Cheme82 · 08-14-09, 05:15 PM

Results:

1-1 -$15

Cheme82 · 08-14-09, 05:15 PM

Friday action:

NYJ -2.5 -115 $100
Min -2.5 -115 $100
Min under 36 $100
Denver +3 -135 $100

Good luck.

Cheme82 · 08-15-09, 01:21 PM

Results:

3-1 +$185

Cheme82 · 08-15-09, 01:21 PM

Saturday Action:

Cleveland +3.5 -115 $100

Good luck.

Rixsaw · 08-15-09, 01:55 PM

Good luck this season buddy.

therber2 · 08-15-09, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by cheme82

Saturday Action:

Cleveland +3.5 -115 $100

Good luck.

I'm with ya on Cleveland bud. Let's rock this one.

Cleveland +3.5 (1 unit)

Cheme82 · 08-16-09, 01:30 PM

Rixsaw: Thanks bro, good luck to you too.

therber2: Cleveland needs a lot of of work bro (my future on Cleveland under 7 wins is looking solid though

)

Cheme82 · 08-16-09, 01:30 PM

Results:

0-1 -$115

chopperocker · 08-17-09, 12:29 AM

My Totals plays:

AFC
East
Buffalo Ov 7.5
North
Cleveland Un 7
Cincinnati Ov 6.5
South
Houston Ov 8
West
Oakland Ov 5.5

NFC
East
Philadelphia Ov 9.5
North
Chicago Ov 8.5
South
Tampa Bay Un 6.5

head_strong · 08-17-09, 12:31 AM

Betting against my Skins Under 8.5 wins.....sorry but I hope you are wrong.

Cheme82 · 08-17-09, 02:48 AM

With all the juice I had to lay on that bet I certainly hope I'm not. I have them right at 7 wins, a good year would be 8-8 but getting that extra win would mean they will be in the mix to win the NFC East. I believe 9-7 will probably win that division, 10-6 definitely will.

They have to play Philly, NYG, and Dallas twice. I'm thinking they win 2 out of those 6. So let's say they have a possible 12 wins now. They have to host NO and go to Car, Atl, and SD. I have them winning 1 of those 4. So now they have a possible 9 wins. So they will have to be perfect in all the games they are "supposed" to win to cash the over. Washington is known to be very capable of shitting the bed at any point. They lost in SF and Cinci last year. Worst of all, they let St. Louis go into their house and beat them.

That's why I think another 8-8 season will be a good season for Washington.

solobass · 08-17-09, 12:24 PM

washington will improve dramatically on defense and depending on the oddsmakers i expect more than 8 unders for the skins. they were gold as an under last year though and i expect lower totals to be installed by the oddsmakers so we will see. best of luck cheme82 and all others!

Cheme82 · 08-17-09, 06:28 PM

True, I'm thinking totals averaging in the high 30's for Washington this year.

Cheme82 · 08-17-09, 06:34 PM

Last updated on 8/17/9
Starting Bankroll $10,000
Current Bankroll $17,015
NFLX 4-3 +$55
CBB 140-142-9 -$3,783
NBA 162-134-10 +$14,889
NHL 47-49 -$4,979
SOC 8-14-3 -$1,976
MLB 395-352-15 -$686
Boxing/MMA 5-1 +$2,800
WNBA 12-10 +$95
Horse Racing 2-0 +$600

I joined SBR at the beginning of football season last year, I was rating my plays in units where 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll. I started at 0 units so the results are the profit/loss for each type of bet. I am posting bets with the actual amounts now to make it easier to keep track.

Football Results:

NFL
53-21-1 +438.95
NFL Teasers
2-7-1 -79.5
CFB
50-36 +145.35
CFB Teasers
2-4 -23.5

Cheme82 · 08-20-09, 01:17 PM

Thursday 8/20/9 Bets:

N.E. -6.5 -110 $300

Good luck.

JimmyJet · 08-20-09, 04:28 PM

U2 good luck for the season...JJ

Cheme82 · 08-20-09, 06:09 PM

Adding:

Philly -2.5 -125 $300

Good luck.

Cheme82 · 08-20-09, 10:20 PM

Results:

0-2 -$705

Cheme82 · 08-21-09, 06:43 PM

Friday action:

Min -2.5 -105 $100
Atl -2.5 -110 $300

Good luck.

masr · 08-21-09, 06:45 PM

Also on ATL -2.5 GL