Official SBR Discussion and Capping thread for week 16

TexansFan · 12-19-06, 01:11 AM

I don't the the Saints are happy at all. After that big and very convincing win against the Cowboys that played badly against the Redskins. It's almost like they didn't even want to play the game.

On the other hand the Giants have a lot to play for. The key to the Giants winning is for Manning to quit turning the ball over. I think they can have success running the ball against the Saints. Should be a good game but there might be some better ones to bet on.

imgv94 · 12-19-06, 01:21 AM

Well let's dicuss another game?

nevadaside · 12-19-06, 01:25 AM

Glad you're gettin it pumped up already im,
Don't trust that NYG game, to me it could go either way given each teams current play & sense of ergency.

Like your thoughts on CAR/ATL, that has got to be one of the better possibilities this week......doubt CAR is going to rise up on the road when they can't get it done @ hm........where go Keyshawn?

I'm focusing in on:
KC-6.5 @ OAK

....looking to make easy $'s off of OAK next couple of weeks. So STL shuts them out....KC can cover 1 score. KC coming off 2 losses with 1 @ hm....will want to prey on a weak unmotivated team that is basically beating themselves at this point with sloppy play/no offensive unity. I'm sure the line will have OAK getting more than a score by weeks end.
Also Under 36.

Only have to worry about one team putting up points for the most part.

BUFF-4.5 @ hm......vs. a TENN team that's been rollin some hard games lately.....TENN may be pretty tired for this one? Need more input on this one.

PHI+7 @ DAL.....a very dangerous team getting a full score. PHI seems to be gaining momentum every week & those guys just seem so pumped up right now....playing with alot of passion & intensity. Feel this will be a close game.

How long will that INDY-9 @ HOU line last after MNF?

Gotta keep that week XV magic rollin hard into XVI!

Razz · 12-19-06, 03:16 AM

Four I am thinking strongly about:

Steelers -3 - I really think the Steelers are playing as well as anyone the past month or so, since the 27-0 loss at Baltimore. I think they revenge that loss, win next week, and slip into the #6 seed in the AFC. Baltimore is a nice team, but Pittsburgh is still miles ahead of them offensively, and the defenses are pretty close to even.

Lions +4.5 - Gee, why is the best team in the NFC only a 4.5 point favorite against the worst? Because they have nothing to play for, their defense is in shambles, and the Lions still have some decent offensive weapons. No telling what Rex Grossman is going to do on the road, and even against the Lions, it's hard to see him having three strong weeks in a row.

Jaguars -3 - The Jags play up and down to the level of their competition, and it looks like New England is pretty much locked into the #4 seed, while Jacksonville needs to win this game to get into the playoffs. The Patriots' 21-0 loss the last time they went to Florida can't be ignored. The Jags have the better defense, run the ball very well, and Garrard makes very good decisions, though you wouldn't know it from last week.

Seattle +4.5 - The Seahawks looked totally abysmal on national TV last Thursday, but they have had a couple extra days to prepare for what is obviously a very good SD team, and I think that is a huge advantage against a team as versatile as the Chargers. San Diego was terrible against the Chiefs, though the score didn't indicate it, and a repeat of that performance will have them getting beat as they travel to a team with one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. Seattle still has loads of offensive weapons, and now that they have the 49ers breathing down their necks, this game will have their full attention.

Also would consider:

Giants -2.5 - I'm not sure I want to lay points with Coughlin/Manning against Payton/Brees. But still, the fact remains that the Saints have now won the division, and the Giants are basically in control of their own destiny in the NFC playoffs. The Saints run defense is not good at all, and Barber/Jacobs should control the tempo of the game, and allow Manning to make plays in favorable situations. The Giants defense is getting healthy enough to hold the Saints offense in check.

Texans +9 - Let's not go crazy about one Colts win. Sure, they're probably going to win this game, and they may win by double digits. Still, the fact that they've lost their last three road games is inescapable, and this could be a nice flat spot. The Texans offense hasn't exactly lit up the scoreboard this season, but they can run the ball enough against a porous run defense to keep this one close.

Good luck everyone!

Checkerboard · 12-19-06, 03:20 AM

Pittsburgh -3.5 Hosting Baltimore . . .

PS at -3.5 after MNF . . . PITT is a Superbowl defender that looked like they might not make the playoffs a few weeks ago. With CIN's MNF loss (and upcoming games @ DEN and then hosting PITT) the Steelers should show up motivated. Champs who got a whiff of seeing themselves not even making the playoffs. If that doesn't light their pilot, Cowher will, especially since it loos as if it's his swansong season. Even with a win over BALT though, the Steelers remain a stretch for a wildcard because they don't hold tiebreaker over DEN or JAX and with other potential AFC wildcard teams they may not hold up because of weaker inter-conference record.
Basically all this means is that PITT has to pretty much run the table and they still might only just squeak in. So, I don't know if that counts for 3.5 points worth of motivation. BALT is embroiled in race for bye.
I have an early play on PITT -3, but I'm hoping it doesn't end up being one of those 17-16 games in either team's favour. PITT is one of the few teams that I would count on to be motivated in this type of a stretch situation. I'm just hoping the individual players all have enough fire in their bellies.

Razz · 12-19-06, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by nevadaside

BUFF-4.5 @ hm......vs. a TENN team that's been rollin some hard games lately.....TENN may be pretty tired for this one? Need more input on this one.

Not sure I've ever seen a game like this, with one team having covered 7 weeks in a row (Buffalo) and the other team having covered 6 weeks in a row. Bizarre, you sometimes see something like that in college, but not in the NFL. As a result, I'm hesitant to fade either team, but I do feel Buffalo is the play. All of Tennessee's wins have been either at home or in decent weather, but going to Buffalo on Christmas Eve could be much tougher. Losman is making very good decisions, and McGahee should have a nice day against the Titans defense, as long as the Bills limit turnovers.

Checkerboard · 12-19-06, 03:46 AM

RAZZ: I Like The Direction of Your Post . . .

Razz, this morning, I put down on JAX-3, NYG-3, BUFF-4, PITT-3 as well as I'm going to take DET, just watching to see if I can get at least 4.5 . . . also took GB and ATL small.

Re: BUFF, my take on two long winning ATS streaks colliding where something has to give usually goes to the home team especially when they're cold hosts, so I'm in line with your thinking there . . .

I also like your HOU thinking, going to seriously consider that.
Definitely a value-oriented contrarian play . . .

I love SEA. I want 4.5 or better. Waiting to pounce on that one. Quality dog in a very good situation. The stage is set nicely there IMO.

In short, your post makes me feel good about where all my plays were going. Which is appreciated, because I rarely play
more than two NFL matchups a week except for these weeks
in just before Christmas, where I seem to see more stuff that I like and traditionally do pretty well . . . so I kinda load up here and go light if at all in the playoffs . . .

Razz · 12-19-06, 03:53 AM

Glad to hear we are thinking similarly this week. I'd lean to GB as well - Tavaris Jackson's first start is on national TV at Lambeau, in what could be Favre's last home game - but I won't be playing it.

imgv94 · 12-19-06, 06:12 AM

I like Sea +4.5 as well glad to see we are all leaning that way. Qwest field is still a very loud and rockin stadium and is Seattle really going to lose 2 in a row @ Home?

I'm taking Sea +4.5..

Also like GB -3 for the above reasons.. Vikings pass defense is putrid.

Razz you sure are making the Steelers sound good and your right they are sneaking their way into the playoffs it seems and the W-L records is keeping this game close..

Razz you and I will have a similar card this week.

Love ATL though and I doubt u do..

Checkerboard · 12-19-06, 10:05 AM

will HOU eventually reach +10 or more?

GL everbody this weekend and happy holidays.

bside · 12-19-06, 10:28 AM

Over 45 ARI/Niners - Niners have the 26th ranked pass D and the Cards have the 28 ranked pass D. Neither team has an above average run D. Frank Gore is averaging over 106 a game on the ground for the season. He is averaging over 136 a game in his last six. Arizona is giving up 26.2 pts/game on the road and the niners are giving 23.7/game at home with 26/game in their last three. Should be a high scoring game in SF this weekend.

Also looking at Den -3 at home with Cutler looking good last week on the road against the 28 ranked pass D. This week he gets the 29th ranked pass D at home in a must win game. Cincy is coming off a Monday Night road loss in which they have to travel again on a short week on christmas eve. Both teams are in a must win but I'll take the home team. Cincy only managed 133 rushing yards against the worst ranked rush D in the league who is giving up 173 rush/game. Cincy's running game is being hurt by the loss of both starting tackles. Still waiting to hear about Javon Walker's status before I make a play in this one.

bside · 12-19-06, 10:52 AM

is Seattle really going to lose 2 in a row @ Home?

imgv94 - I think they will. They have a decent chance to cover but I think they have very little chance to win this game. This is two teams going in opposite directions. Seattle is just really not that good. Hasselbeck is making horrible decisions and SD defense will give him fits again this week. SD is a +11 in turnover ratio while Seattle is a -7. Seattle also has the 22nd ranked run D

Not good when you have LT on tap. SD did what they had to do to win in a poor outing last week against a division rival. I would look for them to try and get back on track this week (i.e. - get Gates involved). SD is still playing for home field throughout the playoffs. SD has the superior defense, most prolific offense in the league (outscored closest team by 51 points), and the third ranked running game. All recipes for being able to go on the road and win in December. This is the class of the AFC versus an also ran in the NFC. No contest in my opinion. I think if you play Sea in this game you are playing for a back door cover. Just my two cents...

Checkerboard · 12-20-06, 02:43 AM

I like DEN-3. CIN has had the wind knocked out of their sails and has to go to Mile High where Broncos are hungry for a win at home . . . It sets up nicely . . . There are a lot of strong plays this week IMO, so I have to work now at editing down my card in favour of the games I really like.

I'm thinking of dropping GB, DET, ATL, HOU from my possible
play list, not because I don't like them, but because they aren't as strong play-wise as the games I am liking . . .

The five games I've already put down that I will be keeping are as follows:

BUF-3.5, DEN-3, JAX-2.5, NYG 2.5, PIT-3, SEA+4.5

(I wagered on Tuesday a.m. and bought 1/2 points on all games except for DEN).

Peyton2MarvinN06 · 12-20-06, 09:21 AM

Two games that I really like this week are:
Pitt(-3) and Buff(-4.5)

We'll start with Buffalo... The Titans only accounted for 99 total yards last week on offense. I know that they only had the ball for a couple possessions in the 2nd half, but they couldn't move the ball at all. Vince Young showed he was still a rookie at the end of the game when he should have just taken a sack, but instead throws the ball away and gives JAX a last shot to tie... The Bills it seems like have been playing better and better each week. They have the cold weather advantage here and I think the Titans magical run comes to a screeching hault at the hands of the Bills...

I cashed nicely on Pitt last week as I thought it was apparent that the Panthers had no chance with Weinke man at QB. The guy has lost over 80% of the games he started and he proved once again that he should not be playing in the NFL. As for Pitt/Balt... Both teams have a lot to play for here. Balt still in the running for the #2 seed and Pitt clawing to try and make the playoffs. Baltimore has been suspect on the road this year... I believe Pitt establishes the running game with Parker as they have done in the last few weeks... The Steelers O-line has been doing a fabulous job of blocking for him... I think the only chance Balt has of winning this game is if they get the lead early and make the BURGER start throwing the ball... We saw a few weeks ago in BALT how good the Ravens pass rush is...

Let's make some money this weekend!

Peyton2MarvinN06 · 12-20-06, 01:01 PM

Is anyone else liking the Skins this weekend? If their defense plays the way they did against the Saints, I can see them easily winning this game... I thought the Skins had packed it in for the year, but it appears that Gibbs won't let them...
Would love some feedback on this game...

Seattle Slew · 12-20-06, 03:04 PM

I really like the board this week. A lot of nice games to choose from.

I've been on Buffalo 5 consecutive weeks, all as underdogs or picks, and now they are favored. Little worried about that, but I think the Titans run ends here in a big way. I also like Buffalo next week at Baltimore, so I might wait for them to be underdogs again.

I also like Seattle +4.5 at home. Last week's game was awful, but the turnovers are what killed the Seahawks. If they protect the ball, I see this as a 20-17 type of game.

Dallas is the only team in the league that can allow 70 points in two games and be a 7-point favorite over an 8-6 team. I think Philly will play well and possibly win this outright. I usually have no luck with or against Dallas, so I'll go light here.

I also see Pitt winning big against Baltimore. I don't like the Ravens at all and will bet against them in the playoffs. Cowher will have Pitt ready after the beating they took in Baltimore a few weeks ago.

imgv94 · 12-20-06, 06:53 PM

Buffalo seems like a good bet, only thing that scares me is the fact that the Titans have a horseshoe up their ass.

I also decided that I'm going to take Cleveland..

Going to post the plays and writeups very soon!!

nosuzieno · 12-20-06, 09:59 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

This thread is for discussion and capping.

Let's exchange stats,trends,angles,thoughts and whatever else will help with our decision makings.

I believe this thread will help out everyone..

Let's do this..

Saints vs Giants- The Saints should have tons of success throwing the ball, but have to wonder if their deflated considering they have the division wrapped up. Giants are fighting for their playoff lives and might want this game more. Eli sure isn't dependable anymore..

Will the Giants lose twice in a row @ Home?

Any thoughts on this one or any other game you are thinking about?

NYG has dropped 5 of last 6 and is 3-4 SU at home in 2006. Although NO did lose to WAS last week, they have beaten NFC EAST Philly and Dallas and while I agree with you that Giants SHOULD have more motivation, that line of thinking cost me last week v. Phil. I also agree with razz that NYG running game provides opportunity against NO def, but I am done with the Giants so staying off this one...

love KC at Oak (i got -5) but wish I would have gotten on them sooner, as line opened at -3.5...Sharps pounded this one immediately and it has now gone to -6.5 (which I would still take.) Oak has no offense and is reduced to third string running back along with brooks behind center. New Off coordinator has done nothing (with no tools) since he took over.

imgv94 · 12-20-06, 10:09 PM

I'm staying off the Giants as well. Saints pass D is preety good and might just pick off Manning 2-3 times..

http://forum.sbrforum.com/pro-football-handicapping/22630-imgv-week-16-plays-writeups-included-ytd-80-60-23-89-units-get-here.html

nevadaside · 12-21-06, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by nosuzieno

love KC at Oak (i got -5) but wish I would have gotten on them sooner, as line opened at -3.5...Sharps pounded this one immediately and it has now gone to -6.5 (which I would still take.) Oak has no offense and is reduced to third string running back along with brooks behind center. New Off coordinator has done nothing (with no tools) since he took over.

Damn, -3.5 is a true Christmas gift. That moved hell fast.......ya snooze ya looze.

Ridin it myself for a 4* play @-6.5

......it defenitately falls into my "play against terrible teams" theme this week. Won't be surprised if ChOakland gets shutout again, but I know that's wishfull thinking......it could happen though.

GL this week nosuz & Happy Holidays.

nosuzieno · 12-21-06, 09:42 AM

Originally posted by nevadaside

GL this week nosuz & Happy Holidays.

Same 2 ya, this is my game of the month

*****Official SBR Discussion and Capping thread for week 16*****

Official SBR Discussion and Capping thread for week 16