Yep Its Eerly but this is my week 1 leans

slacker00 · 06-18-09, 06:21 AM

Here's mine, that I posted in this thread a few weeks ago:

Titans +5.5
Dolphins+4
Chiefs +8
Eagles+2
Bengals +2
Vikings -3
Texans -3.5
Jaguars +7
Lions +12
Cowboys -3
49ers +7
Redskins +5
Rams +6.5
Bears +3
Patriots -10
Raiders +7

We disagree about the Titans/Steelers NFL opener. I think the Steelers are the better team, but the Titans are plenty capable. There's a trend of betting against the Super Bowl winner ATS, which has been proven over time. So, these teams should be pretty much even week 1. Getting 5.5, I'll take the dog.

Miami/Atlanta should be a good game. I also have these two teams fairly even. In reality, this game is probably a no-play for me. Otherwise, I'll take the +4 in a game that probably comes down to whoever has the ball last.

Lions/Saints, I'd take the Saints all day, but the Saints shouldn't be laying 12, not even to the lowly Lions. I expect the Lions to come out and play tough. I don't expect the Lions to win, but they should be able to cover the 12.

Rams/Seahawks. This is probably another no-play for me when it really comes down to it. Otherwise, I'll take the 6 1/2 points in a division rivalry game. Also, I like the Rams this year as one of my surprise teams.

Chargers/Raiders. Another tough division rivalry game. I love the Chargers going into 2009, but laying 7 on the road to their toughest division rival is too much, IMHO. Also, I like the Raiders to maybe make a minor push towards a playoff berth. The Raiders probably end up around 8-8, but that's good enough to take the 7 at home against pretty much anyone.

So, in conclusion, we only disagree on a handful of games. In each case, I'm preferring the dog simply because the favorite is laying too many points to make it worthwhile. A couple of the games aren't even serious plays for me, which means I could probably go either way on those anyway. So, pretty good analysis.

kroyrunner89 · 06-20-09, 07:41 PM

Originally posted by slacker00

There's a trend of betting against the Super Bowl winner ATS, which has been proven over time.

ughhhhh! come on people! trends are so so stupid i can't believe people bother looking at these things. how well past super bowl winners have done in their openers will have absolutely nothing to do with the titans steelers game. there aren't forces in the universe at work that will make the steelers less likely to cover because they happened to win the superbowl. i'm undecided on how i feel about this game at this point, so i'm not saying your titans pick is wrong. just please don't use trends to guide your betting. trust me, i used to try to profit with trends and it's just a losing battle. you can find better ways to find value in bets

slacker00 · 06-21-09, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

ughhhhh! come on people! trends are so so stupid i can't believe people bother looking at these things. how well past super bowl winners have done in their openers will have absolutely nothing to do with the titans steelers game. there aren't forces in the universe at work that will make the steelers less likely to cover because they happened to win the superbowl. i'm undecided on how i feel about this game at this point, so i'm not saying your titans pick is wrong. just please don't use trends to guide your betting. trust me, i used to try to profit with trends and it's just a losing battle. you can find better ways to find value in bets

Read chapter 17 of Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong and get back to me. I'm not going to reinvent the wheel by explaining to you or anyone else. It's been covered to death. Don't worry, your mistake is an honest rookie mistake. I forgive you.

ManOfValue · 06-21-09, 05:08 PM

My week one plays , Bengals -1½ , RedSkins +6 , Bills +10 ...And I really like Texans -4...

pinnacle212 · 06-21-09, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by slacker00

Here's mine, that I posted in this thread a few weeks ago:

We disagree about the Titans/Steelers NFL opener. I think the Steelers are the better team, but the Titans are plenty capable. There's a trend of betting against the Super Bowl winner ATS, which has been proven over time. So, these teams should be pretty much even week 1. Getting 5.5, I'll take the dog.

Miami/Atlanta should be a good game. I also have these two teams fairly even. In reality, this game is probably a no-play for me. Otherwise, I'll take the +4 in a game that probably comes down to whoever has the ball last.

Lions/Saints, I'd take the Saints all day, but the Saints shouldn't be laying 12, not even to the lowly Lions. I expect the Lions to come out and play tough. I don't expect the Lions to win, but they should be able to cover the 12.

Rams/Seahawks. This is probably another no-play for me when it really comes down to it. Otherwise, I'll take the 6 1/2 points in a division rivalry game. Also, I like the Rams this year as one of my surprise teams.

Chargers/Raiders. Another tough division rivalry game. I love the Chargers going into 2009, but laying 7 on the road to their toughest division rival is too much, IMHO. Also, I like the Raiders to maybe make a minor push towards a playoff berth. The Raiders probably end up around 8-8, but that's good enough to take the 7 at home against pretty much anyone.

So, in conclusion, we only disagree on a handful of games. In each case, I'm preferring the dog simply because the favorite is laying too many points to make it worthwhile. A couple of the games aren't even serious plays for me, which means I could probably go either way on those anyway. So, pretty good analysis.

I would watch the Seahawks and Patriots bet.

Seahawks are just one year removed from being the division champs. The had a lot of injuries last year could turn around fast. I would take the Bills because they are going to get a lot of points from Patriots backers. Bills have TO now. They had a pretty good running game last year. Add a good WR could be trouble for +12. The line will be high as hell.

Sharp will be on this +12

kroyrunner89 · 06-21-09, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by slacker00

Read chapter 17 of Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong and get back to me. I'm not going to reinvent the wheel by explaining to you or anyone else. It's been covered to death. Don't worry, your mistake is an honest rookie mistake. I forgive you.

haha i'll be sure to check it out... i'm interested to see what he has to say. i suppose your trend may be reasonable, i can at least think of ways that one would make sense. but the ones that have like 3 or 4 conditions are just absolutely ridiculous. i don't care what wong says (if he for some reason backs them), i'll never buy into those.

slacker00 · 06-22-09, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

haha i'll be sure to check it out... i'm interested to see what he has to say. i suppose your trend may be reasonable, i can at least think of ways that one would make sense. but the ones that have like 3 or 4 conditions are just absolutely ridiculous. i don't care what wong says (if he for some reason backs them), i'll never buy into those.

He backs up his claims with numbers. His book is considered the Bible of sports betting. Nobody worth anything at sports betting disputes any of his claims. Anyone with any experience has already read the book and already understands the claim I am making.

slacker00 · 06-22-09, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by pinnacle212

I would watch the Seahawks and Patriots bet.

Seahawks are just one year removed from being the division champs. The had a lot of injuries last year could turn around fast. I would take the Bills because they are going to get a lot of points from Patriots backers. Bills have TO now. They had a pretty good running game last year. Add a good WR could be trouble for +12. The line will be high as hell.

Sharp will be on this +12

I semi-agree about the Seahawks. That's why the game is a no-play for me. Remember the Rams also had injury issues last season. Both teams are entering a new coaching regime. I kinda like the Seahawks as a sleeper team this year, but it still remains to be seen for me.

The Pats/Bills game, you might want to check that line, everyone has the Pats laying 10, not 12. Otherwise, I'm not convinced that T.O. adds instant success to this team. Although, week one, the T.O. drama factor will be minimized. It does take some time for a QB & WR to get a chemistry going. I also think that T.O. isn't the same player he was 3 or 4 years ago, he's definitely getting old. But the Bills will be healthy and Dick Jaraun will be fighting for his job this year. I expect the Bills to be playing inspired football week 1. 12 is a lot of points for week 1, I'm doing my breakdown with the line still at 10.