NFL Week17: line move + motivation thread

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Let's be honest. Week17 is so tricky. So many different angles.

Playoff motivations. Divsion/wildcard/seeding implications. Who cares? And who doesn't care? Who is a good spoiler?

Then there's the tie-in on how another team's performance impacts a team's prospects. NFL cancelled the Wk17 SunNt game. Good call, let em play at same time.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Many different ways to go here. One obvious one:

* Chargers play late-game. They could be going to post as a dead team. BUT they could be drawing live, based on early results.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Need confirmation of this, but I believe Chiefs are locked into 4-seed. Jags have better Conf record than Chiefs.

Denver -3.5 line tells me that Mahomes is starting for Chiefs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Rams/Niners line dropping like a rock.

[johnnyvegas13]

The most obvious is the jags

they should want to lose this week

[Yazworm91]

Spoiler team Cincy +9.5.

Side not that Rams total has me scratching my head at 45

[LT Profits]

Need confirmation of this, but I believe Chiefs are locked into 4-seed. Jags have better Conf record than Chiefs.

Denver -3.5 line tells me that Mahomes is starting for Chiefs.

Yes. Chiefs locked into #4

[LT Profits]

Rams/Niners line dropping like a rock.

Spoiler team Cincy +9.5.

Side not that Rams total has me scratching my head at 45

Probably no Gurley and Goff among others

[Yazworm91]

Probably no Gurley and Goff among others

with how the NFC could play out they should want the 3 seed. Could potentially be hosting the NFC championship game. I’m a firm believer in not breaking your rhythm if you don’t have to.

[LT Profits]

with how the NFC could play out they should want the 3 seed. Could potentially be hosting the NFC championship game. I’m a firm believer in not breaking your rhythm if you don’t have to.

Rams may not mind dropping to 4, potentially facing Eagles in second round instead of Vikings.

[A4K]

The most obvious is the jags

they should want to lose this week

wHAT DOES A jAGS LOSS DO THAT HELPS THEM?

[LT Profits]

The most obvious is the jags

they should want to lose this week

Why? They are locked into #3

[Sam Losco]

i hate betting week 17, its always a perfect week or winless week it seems for me. might have to lay off, we will see...

[ChiLLx]

Value is already gone on Jags and Niners. Jags moved from +6 to +3 (starters will play) and Niners from +4 to pk (Rams starters won't play long)

[LT Profits]

Mahomes is starting for Chiefs

[RMStanley]

Does anybody understand why the Saints are only -315 at Tampa? I feel like there's tremendous value here (then again I thought the same thing about the Eagles ML on Monday night and that almost crushed my balance).

One lesser known fact about this game is that LSU is playing Notre Dame in Orlando the next day, so there will be a ton of Saints/LSU fans (huge overlap of fanbases) who are in central FL making a holiday of the Saints game and LSU game just 20 hours and 85 miles apart.

There will be at least 15,000 (vocal) Saints fans at this game as a result - maybe closer to 20,000.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

RMstan, that's not a bad line.

Bucs were very game last week. Similar effort takes this game to L2 minutes.

I hear u on Saint fans. Buc fans notorious for conceding their home-tickets. Same story here, will be mixed fan-base.

[johnnyvegas13]

Why? They are locked into #3

Yes but not ther opponent

if if they lose they could get titans again instead of bolts

[LT Profits]

Yes but not ther opponent

if if they lose they could get titans again instead of bolts

Ah, excellent point that I hadn't considered. BUT Jags are playing their starters, I wonder if they will pull them at some point?

[LT Profits]

Big Ben and Le'Veon Out for Steelers. Go Browns!

[pokerdevil]

Big Ben and Le'Veon Out for Steelers. Go Browns!

Line still seems crazy low. -6 versus an 0-15 team wtf

[freeVICK]

Player props could be gold this week

[cankid]

Browns get their first win lol

[LT Profits]

Line still seems crazy low. -6 versus an 0-15 team wtf

Browns playing to win (they already clinched #1 pick, so don't want 0-16), Steelers treating game like preseason.

[pokerdevil]

Browns playing to win (they already clinched #1 pick, so don't want 0-16), Steelers treating game like preseason.

Yeah but if that's truly the case then the line should be Cleveland -4 or something. The line is such a strange middle ground, no?

[LT Profits]

Yeah but if that's truly the case then the line should be Cleveland -4 or something. The line is such a strange middle ground, no?

My gut says Browns have value at anything higher than +4, but doubt I have the guts to play them.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Is a Rams bet biggest contrarian bet ever?

Unless McVay tells these guys to tank (or get cut)...the players on field will be trying to win. And any honest matchup tells me Rams = +$ value.

Mannion will have a look. Surely he wants to show his value to the league.

[JoeA1010]

I have loved Denver all week. They have gone from 3 to 4. Denver is at home, with Lynch trying to prove himself and Joseph maybe trying to save his job. The Chiefs will have zero desire to even be there and playing backups. While Denver is weak, they are still at home and going against backups with coaches and other players who have no motivation at all. I got in at -3 with Denver and it just seems too easy, but we'll see.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I have loved Denver all week. They have gone from 3 to 4. Denver is at home, with Lynch trying to prove himself and Joseph maybe trying to save his job. The Chiefs will have zero desire to even be there and playing backups. While Denver is weak, they are still at home and going against backups with coaches and other players who have no motivation at all. I got in at -3 with Denver and it just seems too easy, but we'll see.

Maybe, Joe. How many reps has Lynch gotten for the year, tho?

Hard to lay pts w/ Lynch here, imho.

[JoeA1010]

Maybe, Joe. How many reps has Lynch gotten for the year, tho?

Hard to lay pts w/ Lynch here, imho.

True, but I just don't see KC scoring hardly at all. In Denver with Mahomes at the helmwho has never had an NFL snap. At least Lynch has a half dozen or so games of NFL experience.

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Browns get their first win lol

[johnnyvegas13]

Agree browns finally pat off here

ats and maybe ml

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One other comment on the Ram/Niner game:

* This idea of "resting starters."

The NFL roster, including practice squad, just isn't that big. Sounds like Rams are resting Goff, gurley, Donald, + 2 offensive linemen.

It's not like they have an 80-man roster. If a guy is on the field, I assume that he's trying to win.

Good luck, whatever side u take.

[LT Profits]

True, but I just don't see KC scoring hardly at all. In Denver with Mahomes at the helmwho has never had an NFL snap. At least Lynch has a half dozen or so games of NFL experience.

Mahomes is not even getting a fair look either because no Kelce and no Tyreek Hill. Interestingly I have not seen/heard anything oh Kareem Hunt unless I missed it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

How likely is Seattle to go to kickoff on West Coast w/ nothing to play for?

And if that is the scenario...do they mail it in? Veteran team. Probably won't be interested in mop-up game.