Rate the order of importance for these when analyzing NFL Futures

TheIntegrityKid · 06-08-09, 02:40 PM

how bout two other small points... how good a team is and how a team finished the previous season...

usually a team that finishes well goes onto having a big things the following season... as far as order of importance for ur list, ill say

1. Strength of Schedule, who you play goes a long way to not only getting to the playoffs but the momentum u carry into them

2. Qb/Coach- communication is key in all aspects, more so in this tho

3. Off-Season Acquisitions- the Eagles are about to show why

4. Strength of Draft- drafts tend to take a couple of years to impact a SuperBowl run

5. Star Holdouts- Emmitt Smith disproved this a LONG time ago.. plus, guys threaten to sit out but end up going back so they can get PAID

slacker00 · 06-09-09, 11:47 AM

1.QB/Coach situation. It's a QB driven league. It's still a team game, but without a quality QB, a team can only go so far if not flounder entirely.

2.Strength of schedule. For season props, there's no getting around playing quality teams. It's maybe not so critical with playoff related props, proven last year when Pitts took the toughest schedule and went all the way. But as far as season wins for a typical team, you can definitely deduct a few wins playing the toughest versus playing the easiest schedule.

3.Strength of draft. It's worth noting, but only to a point. Talent evaluation should be avoided, because we really don't know how players will perform. I mean, I guess we can expect a top 10 overall pick to be a solid starter on their respective NFL team, depending on position. But don't take it too far. It's tough to measure what a team can expect from the rookie class except in terms of measuring depth. I DO measure depth of the incoming class. For example, the Patriots didn't get any top tier players in the draft, but they've got some awesome depth to serve as backups and special teams players. Don't underestimate this benefit when playing season props. So, in conclusion, when it comes to rookies, measure the rookie crop in terms of added depth to a team, not in terms of superstar talent, etc, which only remains to be seen.

4.Off-season acquisitions. I think this can be overrated. Plus, it's tough to evaluate. Will a player continue to play great after getting their payola and switching to a new team? Some players never live up to the hype. Similar to the draft analysis above, if I can get solid players which won't upset the chemistry, I'll take it for what it is. I'm not a believer in superstar players or game changers. It's a team game and takes a roster of 53 solid players to perform over a long season. Always keep the team concept in mind in regards to player analysis with respect to team season props.

5.Star holdouts. This is a rare enough circumstance that it can basically be ignored. It gets a lot more media hype than it deserves. But in rare cases of a critical player, it can cause discontinuity within a team. I wouldn't put too much stock in it and analyze it on a case by case basis.

One factor which you didn't mention is how a team performed at the end of the previous season. I think this can be a huge factor carrying a team forward into the next season. Especially when the last half is compared to the first half of the previous season. Is a team on the rise or falling off? I'd probably put this factor above #2 on the above list because it's so critical.