There's a reason this SB line is a FG.... both of these teams have been protecting their QBs (+ Brady's been showcasing his ability to avoid pressure) and both have the ability to close scoring gaps if need be. There is a very good chance this winds up being close at some point in the 4th quarter.
If not, there are arguments to be made for either team being on the side that winds up with a big win. Atlanta's offense is historic-- and that's not sensationalist, it is a historic offense, setting records for points and their ability to spread the ball to a record number of individual pass catchers both per-game and over the course of the season-- plus they played a respectable defensive schedule, unlike NE. However, the fact that NE had a cake schedule should not be held against their offense, which remains explosive as well.
Anyone who says this is 100% for sure NOT going to be close, in favor of one of these teams over the other, is doing extra work to justify a scenario.
The best play is on the ATL total, being the lower of the two, sitting at 28.
Atlanta has scored under 28 four times this season-- 24 hosting TB week 1, and then on the road AT 3 of the toughest places/teams to score in/against in the NFL: 23 in Denver, 24 in Seattle and 15 in Philly. Also note, all grass fields except for Seattle (SB is played on turf, and this offense is based on spacing/speed-- RBs and even fullbacks (see last week) getting to the outside). Also note, after the Eagles loss in week 10, they had their bye and since then have averaged 37.5 points (including the 2 postseason wins).
I think the total is a smart play too, but the lower value at 28 with the falcons seems way too low and should be an excellent value, considering that the offense is a top 10 scoring offense of all time and citing those scores above. NE has shown big play ability so far these playoffs and whatever you think about the pick on a side here, ATL should be able to hit 30-- either NE's defense can't contain them, NE both scores big themselves and contains them and ATL is forced to play catchup, or some combo of both.
If not, there are arguments to be made for either team being on the side that winds up with a big win. Atlanta's offense is historic-- and that's not sensationalist, it is a historic offense, setting records for points and their ability to spread the ball to a record number of individual pass catchers both per-game and over the course of the season-- plus they played a respectable defensive schedule, unlike NE. However, the fact that NE had a cake schedule should not be held against their offense, which remains explosive as well.
Anyone who says this is 100% for sure NOT going to be close, in favor of one of these teams over the other, is doing extra work to justify a scenario.
The best play is on the ATL total, being the lower of the two, sitting at 28.
Atlanta has scored under 28 four times this season-- 24 hosting TB week 1, and then on the road AT 3 of the toughest places/teams to score in/against in the NFL: 23 in Denver, 24 in Seattle and 15 in Philly. Also note, all grass fields except for Seattle (SB is played on turf, and this offense is based on spacing/speed-- RBs and even fullbacks (see last week) getting to the outside). Also note, after the Eagles loss in week 10, they had their bye and since then have averaged 37.5 points (including the 2 postseason wins).
I think the total is a smart play too, but the lower value at 28 with the falcons seems way too low and should be an excellent value, considering that the offense is a top 10 scoring offense of all time and citing those scores above. NE has shown big play ability so far these playoffs and whatever you think about the pick on a side here, ATL should be able to hit 30-- either NE's defense can't contain them, NE both scores big themselves and contains them and ATL is forced to play catchup, or some combo of both.
