NFL week 15 (Dec15-19)

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  • phil_abuster
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-28-16
    • 506

    #1
    NFL week 15 (Dec15-19)
    thurs:

    seahawks will win, obviously, but the ML is waaay too high and i dunno if i like a 3 score spread either
    but
    i do like the total because my stat analysis estimates a total likely from 40-51 pts which is wholly above the line. actually seattle could come close to the total themselves! i will not expect a 12 pt total like their first meeting in mid-september. and the rams have played awful defense recently and just got eliminated from any remote hope of a playoff shot so i wont figure motivation will b high against a pi$$ed off seahawk squad who r quite capable of scoring 28+ against sub-par opps at home! so
    LA/sea ov 39

    and because i have the seahawks estimated for 28-36 pts, again this is wholly over the tt line for seattle so
    sea tt ov 27.5
  • phil_abuster
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-28-16
    • 506

    #2
    0-2 to start my week

    not posted here was my win last night on dolphins,
    going AGAINST the so-called "sharps" who bet jets +3
    the lines have moved toward jags, colts, falcons, redskins, vikings, lions, packers, eagles, bucs, cards

    bitter cold in chicago, kc, buffalo
    stats indicate this favors the home team significantly, higher turnovers, and lower scoring

    lions +4.5
    bears +4.5
    texans -3.5
    steelers -170 ML
    Comment
    • phil_abuster
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 03-28-16
      • 506

      #3
      line on total rose in a cold weather game, inexplicably
      extreme cold in chicago about 1 degree thru game and wind chill -13. ugh
      anything can happen but bitter cold tends toward under 38 pts
      and w/key injuries on both sides,

      pack/bears un 40
      Comment
      • phil_abuster
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 03-28-16
        • 506

        #4
        more line moves on totals in bad weather games

        adding:
        clv/buf un 43
        det/ny un 42
        pit/cin un 45.5
        Comment
        • phil_abuster
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 03-28-16
          • 506

          #5
          so lions narrowly miss a game-tying TD pass when the ball is underthrown
          but the long gain gets them inside the 15
          first play is a good hole up the middle to the 4
          but the ball is fumbled into the endzone
          and the lucky giants were the ones to fall on it.
          1st down giants at the 20 and of course they quickly get it deep into lion territory
          threatening another score
          Comment
          • phil_abuster
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 03-28-16
            • 506

            #6
            adding:
            2h ind/min un 21.5
            Comment
            • phil_abuster
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 03-28-16
              • 506

              #7
              adding:
              pit/cin 2h un23.5
              Comment
              • phil_abuster
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 03-28-16
                • 506

                #8
                bad week
                will i finish on a high note?
                probably not
                anyway trying something new,

                panthers alt line +14.5 -280
                Comment
                • phil_abuster
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 03-28-16
                  • 506

                  #9
                  live inplay, panthers up 13-3 just into 2q, PK -140
                  Comment
                  • phil_abuster
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 03-28-16
                    • 506

                    #10
                    adding
                    live inplay 13-3 8:45 left in 2q, UN 50.5
                    Comment
                    • phil_abuster
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 03-28-16
                      • 506

                      #11
                      finished 9-6 on my posted bets this week
                      still down on the year
                      Comment
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