NFL week 14 (Dec08-12)

[phil_abuster]

split my games last week

thursday:
close matchup but have to give the edge to chiefs
they beat daRaaaidus 26-10 on the road earlier
and now they have them w/ home field adv.
key stat:
raiders have achieved their record having played 2 extra HOME games
while chiefs achieved their record having played 2 extra ROAD games!
oakland is good, yes, but they r also lucky.
luckier than most.
i say it ends here

chiefs in a close and cold one -185 ml

[phil_abuster]

so the lucky raiders escape a fumble then score 3.
chris collinsworth said it right, that was a very iffy call reversal.
yes, he lost control of the ball on his way to the ground
but that was because he was being tackled, not his own movements.
fumble call should have stood, but for the luck of daRaaaaidus

[phil_abuster]

well
chiefs bust their tails, skilfully, to get a 21-3 lead,
then lose their middle lb (johnson)
and the game changes.

more fortune for daRaaaiduhs

[phil_abuster]

so w/Johnson out, that half-ending raider drive looked too easy
now they feel like they r back in the game
and i agree.
both teams will score in the 2h but oakland may score a few more, like maybe 14-1o or 17-10
so
2ndHalf raaaiduhs PK -110

added bet:
2ndHalf ovr 23.5

[phil_abuster]

2-1 on thursday
split last week

sunday:

dolphins +2 _ near even matchup but leaning to dolphins AND they get free pts at home!
dolphins tt ov 20.5*
*best bet! playing on the road the cards have allowed 38, 33, 30, 30, and 21 pts, w/the lowest allowed being still 21 pts against the weak-ass 49ers. dolphins have exceeded 20.5 in 5 of their 6 home games. if averages hold this one is a no-brainer. of course averages might not hold

charlie browns +5.5 _cold, snow, lost 12 straight, new qb (again) and bengals desperate. all points to cinci covering, therefore my bet is on the charlie browns

eagles +2 __ an EVEN matchup, so i always like the home dog in such situations

bills +2 __ another EVEN matchup. i always like the home dog in such situations the fact that the steelers won last week and the bills lost, actually strengthens this play. bills played a soft home sched, and overall have lost 5 of 6 against decent teams w/ at least 7 wins (today). steelers have won 3 straight and appear to b on a roll! not much reason to take bills here, as it seemingly all points to betting the steelers, which is what most r doing! thus, im betting the bills

[phil_abuster]

2-1 on thursday
split last week

sunday:

dolphins +2 _ near even matchup but leaning to dolphins AND they get free pts at home!
dolphins tt ov 20.5*
*best bet! playing on the road the cards have allowed 38, 33, 30, 30, and 21 pts, w/the lowest allowed being still 21 pts against the weak-ass 49ers. dolphins have exceeded 20.5 in 5 of their 6 home games. if averages hold this one is a no-brainer. of course averages might not hold

charlie browns +5.5 _cold, snow, lost 12 straight, new qb (again) and bengals desperate. all points to cinci covering, therefore my bet is on the charlie browns

eagles +2 __ an EVEN matchup, so i always like the home dog in such situations

bills +2 __ another EVEN matchup. i always like the home dog in such situations the fact that the steelers won last week and the bills lost, actually strengthens this play. bills played a soft home sched, and overall have lost 5 of 6 against decent teams w/ at least 7 wins (today). steelers have won 3 straight and appear to b on a roll! not much reason to take bills here, as it seemingly all points to betting the steelers, which is what most r doing! thus, im betting the bills

adding
broncos +2

[phil_abuster]

too many negatives affecting both the jets and 49ers
niners appear to lack talent but still try, but i think jets have tossed in the towel

frisco -3

[phil_abuster]

adding:
falcons -4.5
bucs -2
seahawks -3

[phil_abuster]

mnf:
ravens 1q +.5-110

[phil_abuster]

6:28 left, break, 23-20
and i just bet NE -371 to win because they r 90-0 when leading in 4Q