JVP's Machine Learning NFL Picks

[JVP3122]

It's been a while since I've been on here but I thought I'd post picks to keep me honest. I built a machine learning algo using data from all the way back in 2000. Using pro football reference's spreads the model would have hit at just under 58% last season. Not sure how it would do unit-wise but that's what this is for.

ALL BETS ARE HYPOTHETICAL. I HAVE NOT PLACED A BET IN SEVEN YEARS AND AM NOT BETTING ANY PICKS MADE HERE. THIS IS PURELY FOR FUN AND PRACTICING WITH MACHINE LEARNING.

I'll be using bookmaker lines and will also be posting my own lines for comparison.

[JVP3122]

The model needs four weeks worth of data to provide an appropriate line so this week the Eagles, Packers, and Patriots are ineligible bets.

The model's calculated lines are the ones in parenthesis.

Buffalo +2.5 -105 (LA -2)
Atlanta +6 -110 (DEN -4)
Houston +6 -105 (HOU -3.5)
Washington +4 -115 (BAL -3)
Chicago +4 -105 (CHI -1)
New York Jets +7 -110 (NYJ -3.5)
Tennessee +3.5 -120 (MIA -3)
San Diego +4 -110 (SD -1.5)
Cincinnati -1 -110 (CIN -7.5)

I'm considering these bets official, but may "place" offsetting bets if lines cross over my lines. Also worth noting that the line I have for SF/ARZ matches bookmaker's so there is no bet on that yet.

[JVP3122]

Adding San Francisco +4 -110 (ARZ -3)

[las8]

I tried sending you a message because I have been working on my own model. It said you are unable to receive messages. I have a couple questions to ask you. If you are open to discussion about you model I can probably find out how to enable your private messages. If not no worries. Good luck to you either way.

[agendaman]

worthless

[JVP3122]

worthless

It very well may be. Like I wrote in the original post, I'm not betting these picks; this was merely a way for me to learn how to apply machine learning principles to something in which i have an interest. What have you done lately?

[oe473034]

It very well may be. Like I wrote in the original post, I'm not betting these picks; this was merely a way for me to learn how to apply machine learning principles to something in which i have an interest. What have you done lately?

Let me help you out!

2016 NFL WEEK 5 PICKS
——————————————————-
49ERS
RAVENS
PATRIOTS
EAGLES
BEARS
VIKINGS
STEELERS
BRONCOS
BENGALS
RAMS
RAIDERS
PACKERS
BUCCANEERS

[JVP3122]

Let me help you out!

2016 NFL WEEK 5 PICKS
——————————————————-
49ERS
RAVENS
PATRIOTS
EAGLES
BEARS
VIKINGS
STEELERS
BRONCOS
BENGALS
RAMS
RAIDERS
PACKERS
BUCCANEERS

Good luck to you. What lines and prices did you book for those games?

[oe473034]

Good luck to you. What lines and prices did you book for those games?

Take whatever lines you get for these. I normally use 5dimes odds on Thursday.

Oh, expect 85% accuracy.

[JVP3122]

I mean no offense and again I wish you luck, but as soon as you write "Take whatever lines you get for these" and "expect 85%" accuracy it signals to me that you're full of shit. That is, until you tell me what lines you're using. I'm not going to explain the math of spreads and prices but any even amateur bettor with minimal experience knows lines and prices matter.

[oe473034]

I mean no offense and again I wish you luck, but as soon as you write "Take whatever lines you get for these" and "expect 85%" accuracy it signals to me that you're full of shit. That is, until you tell me what lines you're using. I'm not going to explain the math of spreads and prices but any even amateur bettor with minimal experience knows lines and prices matter.

Left me bring you back to reality. This is my own thread for the NFL season so far.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/3305988-nfl-season-2016-2017-picks-p2.html

ALL PICKS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK FROM THURSDAYS.

Week 1 Record: 4-7-2: 40%
Week 2 Record: 10-5-1: 63%
Week 3 Record: 10-3-0: 77%
Week 4 Record: 10-4-0: 71%

You will eat your words.

[JVP3122]

Left me bring you back to reality. This is my own thread for the NFL season so far.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/3305988-nfl-season-2016-2017-picks-p2.html

ALL PICKS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK FROM THURSDAYS.

Week 1 Record: 4-7-2: 40%
Week 2 Record: 10-5-1: 63%
Week 3 Record: 10-3-0: 77%
Week 4 Record: 10-4-0: 71%

You will eat your words.

Except that you already proved my words true by posting lines in your thread, so thank you. Again, I wish you luck and unprecedented success if you hope to hit 85%. Hopefully people aren't betting on my picks considering I've written that I myself am not and that this exercise is purely academic. But thank you for coming to this thread to try and prove that your dick is bigger than mine

[JVP3122]

Adding one more for Monday night.
Tampa Bay +6 -115 (TB -3).

Will summarize week 1 results on Tuesday.

[JVP3122]

Again, will summarize the results (went 6-5 +0.6 units) later. Don't want to write too much because I'm on my phone. Here are this week's picks.

San Diego +3.5 -120 (DEN -2.5)
Los Angeles +3 +100 (LA -3.5)
Jacksonville +3 -125 (JAX -6)
Miami +8 -110 (MIA -7.5)
Baltimore +3 -110 (BAL -2.5)
San Francisco +8 -115 (SF -2.5)
Cleveland +7.5 -115 (CLE -2.5)
Washington +3 -125 (WAS -2.5)
Kansas City +1.5 -115 (KC -6.5)
Green Bay -4 -110 (GB -5.5)
Atlanta +6 -110 (SEA -3.5)
Indianapolis +3 -115 (HOU -1)
New York Jets +7.5 -115 (ARI -0.5)

[JVP3122]

Carolina -3 -115 (CAR -4.5)

[JVP3122]

Buffalo +2.5 -105 (LA -2) +1.00
Atlanta +6 -110 (DEN -4) +1.00
Houston +6 -105 (HOU -3.5) -1.05
Washington +4 -115 (BAL -3) +1.00
Chicago +4 -105 (CHI -1) -1.05
New York Jets +7 -110 (NYJ -3.5) -1.10
Tennessee +3.5 -120 (MIA -3) +1.00
San Diego +4 -110 (SD -1.5) +1.00
Cincinnati -1 -110 (CIN -7.5) -1.10
San Francisco +4 -110 (ARZ -3) -1.10
Tampa Bay +6 -115 (TB -3) +1.00

6-5 +0.6 Units

[JVP3122]

San Diego +3.5 -120 (DEN -2.5) +1.00
Los Angeles +3 +100 (LA -3.5) +0.00
Jacksonville +3 -125 (JAX -6) +1.00
Miami +8 -110 (MIA -7.5) +1.00
Baltimore +3 -110 (BAL -2.5) -1.10
San Francisco +8 -115 (SF -2.5) -1.15
Cleveland +7.5 -115 (CLE -2.5) +1.00
Washington +3 -125 (WAS -2.5) +1.00
Kansas City +1.5 -115 (KC -6.5) +1.00
Green Bay -4 -110 (GB -5.5) -1.10
Atlanta +6 -110 (SEA -3.5) +1.00
Indianapolis +3 -115 (HOU -1) +0.00
New York Jets +7.5 -115 (ARI -0.5)

7-3-2 +3.65 Units - Week 6
13-8-2 +4.25 Units
Crazy how Indy turned what looked like a good win into a push, but nonetheless better than a loss. Will update again after MNF.

Also I had a line of Carolina -4.5 which should have pulled a play on Carolina -3 but I forgot to add it. Thus the record should be 13-9-2 +3.25 units according to the closing line.

[JVP3122]

San Diego +3.5 -120 (DEN -2.5) +1.00
Los Angeles +3 +100 (LA -3.5) +0.00
Jacksonville +3 -125 (JAX -6) +1.00
Miami +8 -110 (MIA -7.5) +1.00
Baltimore +3 -110 (BAL -2.5) -1.10
San Francisco +8 -115 (SF -2.5) -1.15
Cleveland +7.5 -115 (CLE -2.5) +1.00
Washington +3 -125 (WAS -2.5) +1.00
Kansas City +1.5 -115 (KC -6.5) +1.00
Green Bay -4 -110 (GB -5.5) -1.10
Atlanta +6 -110 (SEA -3.5) +1.00
Indianapolis +3 -115 (HOU -1) +0.00
New York Jets +7.5 -115 (ARI -0.5) -1.15
Carolina -3 +100 (CAR -4.5) -1.00

Including the Panthers "loss" as an official play even though I didn't post it here.
Week 6: 7-5-2 +1.5 Units
Overall: 13-10-2 +2.1 Units

[JVP3122]

Week 7
Chicago +9 -110 (CHI -2.5)
New York Giants -2.5 -125 (NYG -3)
Philadelphia +2.5 -105 (PHI -2.5)
Baltimore +1 -110 (BAL -1)
Cleveland +9.5 -110 (CLE -3)
New Orleans +7 -120 (KC -2.5)
Indianapolis +3 -120 (IND -3)
Miami +3 -115 (MIA -2.5)
Washington +1 -110 (WAS -2)
Jacksonville -1 -110 (JAX -7)
Tampa Bay -1.5 -110 (TB -2)
San Diego +6.5 -110 (SD -3)
Pittsburgh +7 -115 (PIT -2.5)
Arizona -2 -105 (ARZ -2.5)
Houston +7.5 -115 (HOU -2.5)

[JVP3122]

Chicago +9 -110 (CHI -2.5) -1.10
New York Giants -2.5 -125 (NYG -3) +1.00
Philadelphia +2.5 -105 (PHI -2.5) +1.00
Baltimore +1 -110 (BAL -1) -1.10
Cleveland +9.5 -110 (CLE -3) -1.10
New Orleans +7 -120 (KC -2.5) +1.00
Indianapolis +3 -120 (IND -3) +1.00
Miami +3 -115 (MIA -2.5) +1.00
Washington +1 -110 (WAS -2) -1.10
Jacksonville -1 -110 (JAX -7) -1.10
Tampa Bay -1.5 -110 (TB -2) +1.00
San Diego +6.5 -110 (SD -3) +1.00
Pittsburgh +7 -115 (PIT -2.5) -1.15
Arizona -2 -105 (ARZ -2.5) -1.05
Houston +7.5 -115 (HOU -2.5) -1.15

Week 7: 7-8 -1.80 Units
Total: 20-18-2 +0.35 Units

[JVP3122]

Week 8
Jacksonville +3.5 -115 (JAX -8)
Washington +3 -115 (WAS -1)
Carolina -1 -110 (CAR -3)
Buffalo +5.5 -110 (BUF -4)
New Orleans +3.5 -115 (SEA -2.5)
Tampa Bay Pick -120 (TB -3)
Jets/Browns No Line (NYJ -0.5)
Indianapolis +2.5 -105 (IND -2.5)
Houston -3 100 (HOU -4)
San Diego +6.5 -110 (DEN -2)
Green Bay +2.5 100 (GB -2.5)
Philadelphia +4.5 -110 (PHI -6.5)
Chicago +4.5 -110 (CHI -2.5)

[JVP3122]

Week 8 - Updated to Include Jets/Browns
Jacksonville +3.5 -115 (JAX -8)
Washington +3 -115 (WAS -1)
Carolina -1 -110 (CAR -3)
Buffalo +5.5 -110 (BUF -4)
New Orleans +3.5 -115 (SEA -2.5)
Tampa Bay Pick -120 (TB -3)
Cleveland +3 -105 (NYJ -0.5)
Indianapolis +2.5 -105 (IND -2.5)
Houston -3 100 (HOU -4)
San Diego +6.5 -110 (DEN -2)
Green Bay +2.5 100 (GB -2.5)
Philadelphia +4.5 -110 (PHI -6.5)
Chicago +4.5 -110 (CHI -2.5)

[JVP3122]

Jacksonville +3.5 -115 (JAX -8) -1.15
Washington +3 -115 (WAS -1) +1.00
Carolina -1 -110 (CAR -3) +1.00
Buffalo +5.5 -110 (BUF -4) -1.10
New Orleans +3.5 -115 (SEA -2.5) +1.00
Tampa Bay Pick -120 (TB -3) -1.20
Cleveland +3 -105 (NYJ -0.5) +0.00
Indianapolis +2.5 -105 (IND -2.5) -1.05
Houston -3 100 (HOU -4) +1.00
San Diego +6.5 -110 (DEN -2) -1.10
Green Bay +2.5 100 (GB -2.5) +1.00
Philadelphia +4.5 -110 (PHI -6.5) -1.10
Chicago +4.5 -110 (CHI -2.5) +1.00

Week 8: 6-6-1 -0.6 Units
Total: 26-24-3 -0.25 Units

[JVP3122]

Week 9
Tampa Bay +3.5 -105 (TB -5)
Cleveland +7 -110 (CLE -6)
Detroit +6.5 -110 (MIN -2.5)
Jacksonville +9.5 -110 (JAX -7)
Philadelphia/NYG No Bet (NYG -2.5) - Current line matches book's line
New York Jets +4 -115 (MIA -1)
Baltimore -3 +105 (BAL -3.5)
San Francisco +3 +105 (SF -6.5)
Los Angeles +3 -105 (CAR -2)
Indianapolis +7 -105 (IND -4)
Tennessee +5 -105 (SD -3)
Denver Pick -110 (DEN -3)
Buffalo +6.5 -105 (BUF -2.5)

[JVP3122]

Week 9 - Updated to Include Eagles/Giants
Tampa Bay +3.5 -105 (TB -5)
Cleveland +7 -110 (CLE -6)
Detroit +6.5 -110 (MIN -2.5)
Jacksonville +9.5 -110 (JAX -7)
New York Giants -2 -115 (NYG -2.5)
New York Jets +4 -115 (MIA -1)
Baltimore -3 +105 (BAL -3.5)
San Francisco +3 +105 (SF -6.5)
Los Angeles +3 -105 (CAR -2)
Indianapolis +7 -105 (IND -4)
Tennessee +5 -105 (SD -3)
Denver Pick -110 (DEN -3)
Buffalo +6.5 -105 (BUF -2.5)

[JVP3122]

Tampa Bay +3.5 -105 (TB -5) -1.05
Cleveland +7 -110 (CLE -6) -1
Detroit +6.5 -110 (MIN -2.5) +1.00
Jacksonville +9.5 -110 (JAX -7) +1.00
New York Giants -2 -115 (NYG -2.5) +1.00
New York Jets +4 -115 (MIA -1) +0.00
Baltimore -3 +105 (BAL -3.5) +1.00
San Francisco +3 +105 (SF -6.5) -1.00
Los Angeles +3 -105 (CAR -2) +0.00
Indianapolis +7 -105 (IND -4) +1.00
Tennessee +5 -105 (SD -3) -1.05
Denver Pick -110 (DEN -3) -1.10
Buffalo +6.5 -105 (BUF -2.5) +1.00

Week 9: 6-5-2 +0.75 Units
Total: 32-29-5 +0.30 Units

[JVP3122]

Week 10
Cleveland +10 -115 (BAL -2)
Tampa Bay/Chicago NL (TB -2)
Philadelphia -1.5 -105 (PHI -4)
Los Angeles +2 -110 (LA -2.5)
Green Bay -2 -115 (GB -2.5)
Denver +1.5 -110 (DEN -6.5)
Kansas City +3 -105 (CAR -2.5)
Jacksonville +1.5 -110 (JAX -3)
Minnesota +3 -115 (MIN -2.5)
Miami +3.5 -105 (MIA -3)
Pittsburgh -2 -115 (PIT -5.5)
San Francisco +13 -105 (SF -3)
New England/Seattle NL (SEA -3.5)
New York Giants -2 -105 (NYG -3)

Will update again once I remember to check to see if lines have been posted for the two NL games.

[JVP3122]

Week 10 Updated to Include Extra Available Lines
Cleveland +10 -115 (BAL -2)
Tampa Bay +2 -105 (TB -2)
Philadelphia -1.5 -105 (PHI -4)
Los Angeles +2 -110 (LA -2.5)
Green Bay -2 -115 (GB -2.5)
Denver +1.5 -110 (DEN -6.5)
Kansas City +3 -105 (CAR -2.5)
Jacksonville +1.5 -110 (JAX -3)
Minnesota +3 -115 (MIN -2.5)
Miami +3.5 -105 (MIA -3)
Pittsburgh -2 -115 (PIT -5.5)
San Francisco +13 -105 (SF -3)
Seattle +7.5 -119 (SEA -3.5)
New York Giants -2 -105 (NYG -3)

[JVP3122]

Cleveland +10 -115 (BAL -2) -1.15
Tampa Bay +2 -105 (TB -2) +1.00
Philadelphia -1.5 -105 (PHI -4) +1.00
Los Angeles +2 -110 (LA -2.5) +1.00
Green Bay -2 -115 (GB -2.5) -1.15
Denver +1.5 -110 (DEN -6.5) +1.00
Kansas City +3 -105 (CAR -2.5) +1.00
Jacksonville +1.5 -110 (JAX -3) -1.10
Minnesota +3 -115 (MIN -2.5) -1.15
Miami +3.5 -105 (MIA -3) +1.00
Pittsburgh -2 -115 (PIT -5.5) -1.15
San Francisco +13 -105 (SF -3) +1.00
Seattle +7.5 -119 (SEA -3.5) +1.00
New York Giants -2 -105 (NYG -3) -1.05

Week 10: 8-6 +1.25 Units
Total: 40-35-5 +1.55 Units

[JVP3122]

Week 11

Carolina -3 -125 (CAR -5)
Buffalo +3 -105 (BUF -2.5)
Baltimore +7 +100 (BAL -9)
Cleveland +8 -110 (CLE -3.5)
Indianapolis -3 -105 (IND -4)
Tampa Bay +7.5 -120 (TB -2.5)
Arizona -1 -110 (ARZ -2.5)
Jacksonville +6.5 -115 (JAX -7)
Chicago +7 -105 (CHI -1)
Los Angeles 0 -115 (LA -1)
Philadelphia +6 -105 (PHI -2.5)
San Francisco +12.5 -110 (SF -7)
Green Bay +2.5 +100 (GB -3)
Houston +6 -110 (HOU -3.5)

Some of these picks have me questioning whether I coded the model correctly (why is Jacksonville always favored???) but that is something I'll address in the off season.

[Notorious_Donk]

Are you able to scrape off pro football reference site or is this manual data pull?

[JVP3122]

I scrape the data using Python scrapy.

[Notorious_Donk]

I scrape the data using Python scrapy.

Nice, i've messed around with that tool but never did anything extensive. Do you pull the data right into a spreadsheet?

[JVP3122]

I used xpath with scrapy, and it was a bit of a pain because some of the tables were done using js, so I had to filter out comments and such.

Yes, I pulled it directly into a CSV. One thing I recommend if you go that route is to make sure you code in a pause into your bot because otherwise your IP will get temporarily blocked by the site.

[Notorious_Donk]

I used xpath with scrapy, and it was a bit of a pain because some of the tables were done using js, so I had to filter out comments and such.

Yes, I pulled it directly into a CSV. One thing I recommend if you go that route is to make sure you code in a pause into your bot because otherwise your IP will get temporarily blocked by the site.

Thx for the tips man. Best of luck with your system