Donk's ELO Point Spread System
Last year I closely followed point spreads generated by FiveThirtyEight and decided to continue this year. For those of you who don't know, FiveThirtyEight is a website that does countless numbers of projections including NFL. They have an Elo point spread system where they generate a point spread for every NFL game based on team skill level, previous games, and locations of each game.
Since I like to crunch numbers when I get bored, I decided to compare the Elo point spreads with the closing odds from Vegas. As a result, I created 3 types of wagers based on the system. I was not planning on posting the results of this system anytime soon, however, after 3 weeks of NFL I actually have some interesting results. Here are the three types of wagers...
FOX: name derived from FiveThirtyEight's logo; this wager is when Elo has the same projected winner as Vegas, but Elo has a larger spread
PIG: first three-letter animal I could think of; this wager is when Elo has the same projected winner as Vegas, but has a smaller spread than Vegas.
DOG: named because this wager is technically the underdog; this wager is when Elo and Vegas have different projected winners based on the spread.
If this is confusing right now, I promise there will be much more clarity once the results are posted. Again, this system was only created because I got bored one night and simply started crunching numbers. I have created a few "systems" in the past, including a MLB first inning system being very successful. However, I have also had some systems completely flop.
As of now, this system is being entirely used for tracking but feel free to tail if you would like. Depending on how the system progresses throughout the season, I may lay down real wagers. Questions, comments, and concerns are more than welcome. Without further ado...
Since I like to crunch numbers when I get bored, I decided to compare the Elo point spreads with the closing odds from Vegas. As a result, I created 3 types of wagers based on the system. I was not planning on posting the results of this system anytime soon, however, after 3 weeks of NFL I actually have some interesting results. Here are the three types of wagers...
FOX: name derived from FiveThirtyEight's logo; this wager is when Elo has the same projected winner as Vegas, but Elo has a larger spread
PIG: first three-letter animal I could think of; this wager is when Elo has the same projected winner as Vegas, but has a smaller spread than Vegas.
DOG: named because this wager is technically the underdog; this wager is when Elo and Vegas have different projected winners based on the spread.
If this is confusing right now, I promise there will be much more clarity once the results are posted. Again, this system was only created because I got bored one night and simply started crunching numbers. I have created a few "systems" in the past, including a MLB first inning system being very successful. However, I have also had some systems completely flop.
As of now, this system is being entirely used for tracking but feel free to tail if you would like. Depending on how the system progresses throughout the season, I may lay down real wagers. Questions, comments, and concerns are more than welcome. Without further ado...
