Little Larry's System Picks 2.0

[LittleLarryY]

Hey guys,

I trailed of last year as life got busy but I'm hitting the ground running as this is the first viable week of my system. Any questions, please refer to the thread posted at the bottom from last year. Good luck!

Week 4 2016

		WIN/LOSS
MIA	+7.5
BAL	-3.0
DEN	-3.0
SD	-3.5
SF	+3.0
KC	+5.0
MIN	-4.5
TEN/HOU	UNDER 41
SEA/NYJ	UNDER 40.5
DET/CHI	UNDER 47.5
NO/SD	OVER 53.5
DAL/SF	OVER 45.5

SF +3 and DAL/SF OVER don't make a whole lot of sense to me, but we shall see how it plays out.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/3149035-little-larrys-system-picks.html

[DustyDiamond]

Can you tell us how the system generates picks?

[LittleLarryY]

Can you tell us how the system generates picks?

From post 18 of last year's thread.

In a nutshell, I have derived an equation built upon team based sabermetrics over the last four contests while removing outliers from the mean average. If a significant injury occurs, a separate formula is used in a similar fashion akin to WAR (but statistical not wins) to adjust the team ratings.

The results are my hypothetical scores, straight up winner, and its winning margin.

These results are compared to point spreads and totals with safety buffers built in to derive the play. If the margin crosses a threshold, the units played will increase. The buffers are stringent. Maybe expect 20 two unit plays throughout a season and < 3 three unit plays. For all intents and purposes a three unit play is a "lock". There were two 2 unit plays last week (totals) and they both hit. For the purposes of these posts, I have decided all plays are listed as one unit.

This same system can be applied to power 5 NCAA games in which the teams have had 4 common opponents. So late in season games and conference championships. Caution must still be taken and buffers are increased as ncaa is much more fluid than NFL. I suppose it could also be applied to other games outside of power 5 conferences but I don't have the time to gather the raw data necessary. I'm hoping to learn how to scrub data so the process may be possible and back checked.

[jeffchitown]

Nice seems like your system worked pretty well last year. I wonder though if weather had any impact on any of your picks since they were based solely on stats. I'll definitely keep my eye on these picks.

[freestyle raw]

Thought we lost ya man

Glad your alive

Thanks for the picks

[LittleLarryY]

Nice seems like your system worked pretty well last year. I wonder though if weather had any impact on any of your picks since they were based solely on stats. I'll definitely keep my eye on these picks.

Weather, Day/Time of game, or Team's return from bye week are factored in. Mainly because I can't figure out how to quantify and implement. I'm open to suggestions.

[jeffchitown]

Wow impressive

[shopbar picks]

Are you going to post ncaa?

[LittleLarryY]

Are you going to post ncaa?

Likely no. Maybe for conference championship games. It is quite a bit of data to compile. Plus it's difficult to determine which games qualify.

[shopbar picks]

I can understand that.. Best of luck tomorrow