Fade the Panthers! +14 49er's will come out strong + 2 picks

[Ralphalph]

This is my 10am lock of the morning. I have another two picks that I will release at afternoon and evening close to game time. Long story short, NFL public wants to see Panthers come out with a fight and in contention for the title this year, but this game will make this outlook seem dim and Panthers barely escape with a "lucky" victory. ESPN media highlights will read "What's wrong with the Panthers??" Okay, i'm getting carried away with the story, but you get what I mean.

What are your thoughts?

[p4$$ion]

wipe the mustard stain off your shirt and take your meds.

[SBRMAN23]

wipe the mustard stain off your shirt and take your meds.

[JayDr3am]

wipe the mustard stain off your shirt and take your meds.

im crying right now

[terpkeg]

This is my 10am lock of the morning. I have another two picks that I will release at afternoon and evening close to game time. Long story short, NFL public wants to see Panthers come out with a fight and in contention for the title this year, but this game will make this outlook seem dim and Panthers barely escape "lucky" victory. ESPN media highlights will read "What's wrong with the Panthers??" Okay, i'm getting carried away with the story, but you get what I mean.

What are your thoughts?

Like pick but don't feel your reasoning. I feel line inflated b/c of Panthers over performance last year going +8 better than the close number per game and fact that old foggy heads can't figure out that the west coast trip east and short week aren't as valuable as they used to be. Some buddy give me the numebrs but I feel since 2008 playing against short week and against 1:00 pm west cost teams is -ev

[Ralphalph]

Like pick but don't feel your reasoning. I feel line inflated b/c of Panthers over performance last year going +8 better than the close number per game and fact that old foggy heads can't figure out that the west coast trip east and short week aren't as valuable as they used to be. Some buddy give me the numebrs but I feel since 2008 playing against short week and against 1:00 pm west cost teams is -ev

Terp, my reasoning comes from that every team, every matchup has got a narrative which the betting public uses to make their bets and the oddsmakers use to artificially create the lines to take the money from the betting public. Panthers played on national television and opening weekend and "should've won". Now this week they're "really going to destroy their opponent." I don't think so. I don't have the numbers to back it up, but the narrative makes a lot of sense. The narrative isn't always as pronounced, but it's something all betters use to more or less sway their judgment. I don't always bet against the public, but I have to here.

Passion...pretty funny.

[arrgy]

Last week the two biggest dogs won. Happens again this week, you cant lay chalk like that in an NFL game.

[Ralphalph]

If anyone cares, my other pick is the Raiders and Falcons under 48