My NFL Spread/Power Ratings

[GSoro]

So I developed my own little Power Ratings/Spread formula. It would be 11-3 right now with the games played so far, figure I'd share em in here from now on moving forward just for fun. I'll put up the new week before Thursday's game every week. For those who care.....enjoy



Week 1 Spread Projections:

Panthers pk
Broncos pk

Steelers -0.5
Redskins

Buccaneers pk
Falcons pk

Bills -5
Ravens

Bears
Texans -14.5

Packers
Jaguars -3.5

Chargers
Chiefs -14

Raiders -9
Saints

Bengals
Jets -6.5

Browns
Eagles -0.5

Vikings -7
Titans


Dolphins
Seahawks -4.5

Giants -7.5
Cowboys

Lions pk
Colts pk

Patriots -5
Cardinals

Rams
49ers -2.5

[POOLSIDE]

You'd have the Bills laying 11 to the Ravens and the Raiders -15 over the Saints if those weren't road games

[GSoro]

You'd have the Bills laying 11 to the Ravens and the Raiders -15 over the Saints if those weren't road games

Actually the Bills game would have been a half point less, and the Raiders would've been -8 at home with my formula. I don't use the standard 3 point home field advantage, each team has there own specific home advantage or disadvantage.

[GSoro]

Week 1 ended up going 12-4. Here are my spreads for week 2...

Week 2 Spread Projections


NY Jets -3.5
Buffalo Bills


SF 49ers -1.5
Carolina Panthers


Baltimore Ravens -4.5
Cleveland Browns


Tennessee Titans
Detroit Lions -3.5


KC Chiefs
Houston Texans -3.5


Miami Dolphins
NE Patriots -4


NO Saints -0.5
NY Giants


Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5


Dallas Cowboys
Washington Redskins -3


TB Bucs -5.5
Arizona Cardinals


Seattle Seahawks -9
LA Rams


Indianapolis Colts
Denver Broncos -6


Atlanta Falcons
Oakland Raiders -2.5


Jax Jaguars -0.5
SD Chargers


Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings -2


Philadelphia Eagles -3
Chicago Bears

[MikeyD323]

Wtf does this mean?

[Time is Money]

Week 1 ended up going 12-4. Here are my spreads for week 2...

Week 2 Spread Projections


NY Jets -3.5
Buffalo Bills


SF 49ers -1.5
Carolina Panthers


Baltimore Ravens -4.5
Cleveland Browns


Tennessee Titans
Detroit Lions -3.5


KC Chiefs
Houston Texans -3.5


Miami Dolphins
NE Patriots -4


NO Saints -0.5
NY Giants


Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5


Dallas Cowboys
Washington Redskins -3


TB Bucs -5.5
Arizona Cardinals


Seattle Seahawks -9
LA Rams


Indianapolis Colts
Denver Broncos -6


Atlanta Falcons
Oakland Raiders -2.5


Jax Jaguars -0.5
SD Chargers


Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings -2


Philadelphia Eagles -3
Chicago Bears

9ers are giving Panthers 1.5 IN Carolina? I can't take this serious.

[Easy-Rider 66]

^ Yeah How can SF be a 1.5 Fav over CAR on the road? Talk about an over reaction to week 1. Another one that is off is TB -5.5 over AZ on the road. Some of them I agree with but a couple are way out there. GL.

[GSoro]

Just to be clear, this is strictly experimental for now....I actually have real bets this week that contradict these numbers, because this is isn't yet proven although I do believe the fundamentals of the formula make sense. I'm not on here to make any claims, I'm just testing out something in real time that I wanted to be publicly documented and currently has a 13-4 record this season now after the Jets game.

[GSoro]

9-6-1 for week 2...........After tonight this spread rating formula is now 23-8-1 for the season.

[sweep]

Wtf is going on here?

[rm18]

Gsoro your drunk guey

[GSoro]

Gsoro your drunk guey

???

[offguard]

9-6-1 for week 2...........After tonight this spread rating formula is now 23-8-1 for the season.

Thanks for sharing your research GSoro. We luv new methods. looking
good so far..

[Time is Money]

Maybe it's early and I'm still out of it but how the fukk are you winning or losing? are you automatically taking the team laying points and then basing win/losses on actual spread?

[sweep]

Maybe it's early and I'm still out of it but how the fukk are you winning or losing? are you automatically taking the team laying points and then basing win/losses on actual spread?

ditto

[GSoro]

Maybe it's early and I'm still out of it but how the fukk are you winning or losing? are you automatically taking the team laying points and then basing win/losses on actual spread?

Example: it has Eagles -3 right?......the bookies have them +3 right? So I bet Eagles +3. Or like when the formula had the Texans favored by 14.5 in Week 1, but they were only favored by like 3 I think it was....u would bet the Texans. And yes the wins/losses are ATS, not straight up.

[GSoro]

For those confused, this Thursday being as how the spread is -2.5 for the Texans but this has them at a pick em, u would bet the Patriots. Not sure how that wasn't understood but anyway here's week 3...

Week 3 Spread Ptojections:

Texans pk
Patriots pk

Cardinals -7
Bills

Vikings -1.5
Panthers

Broncos -1.5
Bengals

Lions
Packers -4

Ravens -3
Jaguars

Browns
Dolphins -12

Redskins
Giants -1

Raiders
Titans -2.5

Fortyniners -14.5
Seahawks

Rams pk
Buccaneers pk

Steelers -5
Eagles

Chargers -6.5
Colts

Jets -9
Chiefs

Bears
Cowboys -5.5

Falcons
Saints -3

Once again take these with a grain of salt, this is just experimental for now even though I believe in the theory of coming up with these numbers.....I am making no claims. Just wanted it publicly documented and if I was on to somethin I just wanted to share and help some people get some money. Almost every bet I made in real life has actually contradicted these numbers, and luckily in real life I was right (I bet the Panthers & the Cowboys Sunday) But good luck though...

[offguard]

My power ratings agree with your Pats pick for tonite Gsoro. Just got down on Pats @ -1. Thanks for sharing your experiments @ bl..

[GSoro]

My power ratings agree with your Pats pick for tonite Gsoro. Just got down on Pats @ -1. Thanks for sharing your experiments @ bl..

No problem, appreciate the feedback. GL

[offguard]

Good to see your system also likes Arizona, just booked'em @ -4 1/2.