Contrarian Pool Picks - Week 1

Chcbleachers · 09-08-16, 01:58 PM

2015's Contrarian Results

80%+ games: 10-11
70%+ games: 35-30 (2-0 week 17)

These are the final results from 2015's season....had to go 5-1 on the last two weeks to get over the break-even mark. That being said, it was the worst year in history yet still 4 games over .500.

POOLSIDE · 09-08-16, 02:39 PM

Love this thread. Thanks.

Shark · 09-08-16, 03:33 PM

How do we back the trucks up on the 80%s if they went 10-11?

thekoreanmang · 09-08-16, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by Chcbleachers

This is the third year that I'm posting these picks....year 1 was great, year 2 was slightly above average yet still in the black.

In short, these are the picks from a large sample size of bettors from my buddy's work pool. Year after year, they are terrible. If 70% of the pool is on one side, chances are they are going to lose. If 80%+ is on one side, back up the truck against them.

There will be a gutter ball week from time to time, yet year after year this is how I make my cash to fund blowouts in LV. Anyway, here are the picks for week 1 - I will track the results from this point forward.

GOING OPPOSITE ON THESE:

Green Bay (85%)
Indy (80%)

Pitt (77%)
Carolina (76%)
Houston (73%)
KC (70%)

If any of these change before Saturday, I'll update this thread.

Interesting that your buddy's office pool which seems like a good resemblance to the betting public at large is on the opposite of what most of the public is doing on tonight's game. I want to bet CAR so bad but your 76% on them makes me hesitate.

Good luck, tonight. Are you fading all of these personally?

Shark · 09-08-16, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Interesting that your buddy's office pool which seems like a good resemblance to the betting public at large is on the opposite of what most of the public is doing on tonight's game. I want to bet CAR so bad but your 76% on them makes me hesitate.

Good luck, tonight. Are you fading all of these personally?

Do you have any numbers supporting the public is on Denver? I have not seen that as the case anywhere.

POOLSIDE · 09-08-16, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by thekoreanmang

Interesting that your buddy's office pool which seems like a good resemblance to the betting public at large is on the opposite of what most of the public is doing on tonight's game. I want to bet CAR so bad but your 76% on them makes me hesitate.

Good luck, tonight. Are you fading all of these personally?

Maybe you read this incorrectly. 76% of his pool is on Carolina.

Chcbleachers · 09-09-16, 02:41 PM

I understand what you are saying....last year was the first year the 80% picks were under .500 (though not by much.) For 2014, they were 20-10. It should return to the historical average this year I would assume.

Chcbleachers · 09-09-16, 02:41 PM

76% were on Carolina, so I went the opposite and took Denver.

Chcbleachers · 09-09-16, 02:44 PM

Yep, these are the only NFL games that I wager on. Since I took my faulty logic out of the equation years ago and just relied on this pool to tell me what to wager by going against the public, it's been profitable.

I backed up the truck on Jacksonville this Sunday....I don't see how Green Bay doesn't win by 28 points, so that's probably a good sign that I am going the opposite of my initial leanings.

POOLSIDE · 09-09-16, 02:48 PM

Surprised not to see Cincy here

ericool007 · 09-09-16, 03:02 PM

so is this with or without the spread

Chcbleachers · 09-11-16, 07:21 AM

Updated percentages....

GOING OPPOSITE ON THESE:

Green Bay (84%)

Indy (78%)
Pitt (77%)
Carolina (76%) - W
Houston (72%)
NYG (71%)

KC fell to 69% so no play on their opponent today.

Chcbleachers · 09-11-16, 07:22 AM

with spread...