Cfl 2016

HeeluvaGuy · 07-07-16, 08:52 AM

Checking in. It'll be another 2-3 weeks before I start posting my lines, but thought I'd give you a bump to see if anyone is out there.

HeeluvaGuy · 07-19-16, 12:04 AM

I'll go ahead and start posting my lines here. This is how things went last season in the other thread:

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	3	1	1	3
Week 6	4	0	1	3
Week 7	2	2	2	2
Week 8	1	3	3	1
Week 9	1	3	2	2
Week 10	1	3	3	1
Week 11	2	2	3	1
Week 12	3	1	2	2
Week 13	3	1	2	2
Week 14	2	2	2	1
Week 15	2	2	2	2
Week 16	2	3	3	2
Week 17	2	2	1	3
Week 18	3	1	3	1
Week 19	2	2	1	3
Week 20	0	4	1	2

Totals	33	32	32	31

Obviously, Week 20 was a disaster, but that's not surprising since all of the playoff spots were decided the week before. From Week 5 through Week 20 my model went 33-28 (54.1%) on sides and 31-29 (51.7%) on totals. So things were slightly profitable. Hoping to do a little better this season. Best of luck to all!

HeeluvaGuy · 07-19-16, 12:10 AM

Here are my Week 5 lines:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Winnipeg	5	-1.5	-6.5	50	41.5	-8.5
Saskatchewan	7	26.2	19.2	55	72.1	17.1
Edmonton	-4.5	-4.9	-0.4	55.5	58.0	2.5
Toronto	-7	-19.9	-12.9	44.5	34.8	-9.7

I always base my lines off of the home team, so a negative number on a side means the home team is favored. For example, Winnipeg is currently a 5-point underdog at home against Calgary. My model has Winnipeg favored by 1.5 for a difference of 6.5 points from the current line. Feel free to ask questions if something doesn't make sense.

Mike Huntertz · 07-21-16, 03:14 PM

Didn't Cal beat Wpg by 14 earlier?

HeeluvaGuy · 07-21-16, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by Mike Huntertz

Didn't Cal beat Wpg by 14 earlier?

Yup. And it went over pretty easily. There are also several trends that favor Calgary. I'm just providing my numbers as a tool for anyone interested. I certainly am not a CFL expert.

HeeluvaGuy · 07-26-16, 12:32 AM

Not terrible so far, but not what we're looking for.

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	1	3	2	2

HeeluvaGuy · 07-26-16, 11:11 PM

Model has some weird lines this week:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Edmonton	-10	22.5	32.5	55	60.7	5.7
Montreal	0	20.3	20.3	50	52.5	2.5
Calgary	-5.5	6.7	12.2	49	44.7	-4.3
Ottawa	-8	-13.6	-5.6	49	48.3	-0.7

HeeluvaGuy · 08-02-16, 10:36 PM

Not good so far. Looking to improve this week.

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6	2	2	1	3
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	3	5	3	5

HeeluvaGuy · 08-02-16, 10:37 PM

Lines for Week 7:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Winnipeg	4.5	-0.7	-5.2	49.5	43.6	-5.9
Montreal	2.5	8.3	5.8	50	45.3	-4.7
Calgary	-11	-27.6	-16.6	58	71.9	13.9
Ottawa	-4	-18.0	-14.0	58.5	55.0	-3.5

HeeluvaGuy · 08-06-16, 10:25 PM

Nice winning week this time around.

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6	2	2	1	3
Week 7	3	1	2	2
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	6	6	5	7

HeeluvaGuy · 08-08-16, 05:45 PM

Here's what I have for Week 8:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Edmonton	-7.5	-3.9	3.6	51.5	52.8	1.3
Toronto	-4	4.4	8.4	49.5	48.6	-0.9
Saskatchewan	6	9.4	3.4	55	56.1	1.1
BC	-2.5	-10.6	-8.1	54.5	53.7	-0.8

HeeluvaGuy · 08-14-16, 08:05 AM

Another strong week for the sides, but the totals are way off this season.

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6	2	2	1	3
Week 7	3	1	2	2
Week 8	3	1	0	4
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	9	7	5	11

HeeluvaGuy · 08-18-16, 08:38 AM

My lines for this week:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Ottawa	-10	-9.3	0.7	49	41.8	-7.2
BC	-3	-11.5	-8.5	56	58.2	2.2
Toronto	3	-2.5	-5.5	53	45.3	-7.7
Hamilton	-10.5	-6.4	4.1	53	47.7	-5.3

DansPicks · 08-18-16, 08:42 AM

Love the CFL talks. Hamilton should be a good pick down the road with their QB back

HeeluvaGuy · 08-23-16, 08:16 AM

Week 9 was a disaster. Need to find some time to see what's going on with the totals.

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6	2	2	1	3
Week 7	3	1	2	2
Week 8	3	1	0	4
Week 9	1	3	0	4
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	10	10	5	15

HeeluvaGuy · 08-23-16, 08:17 AM

Here are my lines for Week 10:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Ottawa	-2.5	9.0	11.5	56.5	57.7	1.2
Montreal	-1.5	9.3	10.8	48	45.2	-2.8
Edmonton	-13.5	-22.2	-8.7	56	55.1	-0.9
Calgary	-5	-10.6	-5.6	53.5	56.8	3.3

HeeluvaGuy · 08-29-16, 02:36 PM

Updated season results. The totals are a terrific fade right now.

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6	2	2	1	3
Week 7	3	1	2	2
Week 8	3	1	0	4
Week 9	1	3	0	4
Week 10	3	1	1	3
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	13	11	6	18

HeeluvaGuy · 08-30-16, 11:09 PM

Just realized we have a game tomorrow. Here are my lines for Week 11. I may adjust the second Toronto game after tomorrow's game.

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Toronto	3	11.8	8.8	54.5	59.2	4.7
Montreal	2.5	-1.7	-4.2	49	48.7	-0.3
Saskatchewan	4.5	18.1	13.6	51.5	50.8	-0.7
Calgary	-7	-10.5	-3.5	54.5	51.9	-2.6
Hamilton	-8	-8.8	-0.8	54.5	54.3	-0.2

HeeluvaGuy · 09-07-16, 09:34 PM

I wish I could bottle and sell the fade material in these totals...

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6	2	2	1	3
Week 7	3	1	2	2
Week 8	3	1	0	4
Week 9	1	3	0	4
Week 10	3	1	1	3
Week 11	2	2	1	4
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	15	13	7	22

HeeluvaGuy · 09-07-16, 09:35 PM

Lines for Week 12:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
BC	-9.5	-2.1	7.4	48.5	42.6	-5.9
Winnipeg	-7	-19.4	-12.4	52.5	50.1	-2.4
Edmonton	2.5	17.9	15.4	53.5	61.1	7.6
Toronto	4	11.2	7.2	56	63.1	7.1

HeeluvaGuy · 09-15-16, 10:28 PM

It's been a crappy week so I'm just getting to this. Here's where we are after last week's games:

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6	2	2	1	3
Week 7	3	1	2	2
Week 8	3	1	0	4
Week 9	1	3	0	4
Week 10	3	1	1	3
Week 11	2	2	1	4
Week 12	1	2	2	2
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	16	15	9	24

HeeluvaGuy · 09-15-16, 10:29 PM

This is what I have for Week 13:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Hamilton	-11.5	-1.5	10.0	53	51.3	-1.7
Winnipeg	-6	1.0	7.0	50.5	42.9	-7.6
Calgary	-9.5	-11.6	-2.1	54	57.3	3.3
Saskatchewan	5	6.5	1.5	55	54.6	-0.4

HeeluvaGuy · 09-21-16, 09:12 AM

Results through Week 13:

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6	2	2	1	3
Week 7	3	1	2	2
Week 8	3	1	0	4
Week 9	1	3	0	4
Week 10	3	1	1	3
Week 11	2	2	1	4
Week 12	1	2	2	2
Week 13	2	2	3	1
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	18	17	12	25

HeeluvaGuy · 09-21-16, 09:13 AM

Here's what I have for Week 14:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Ottawa	-6	0.4	6.4	53	59.4	6.4
Edmonton	-1	8.3	9.3	55	58.5	3.5
Calgary	-9.5	-27.4	-17.9	53	60.2	7.2
Saskatchewan	5	-4.7	-9.7	53.5	51.1	-2.4

HeeluvaGuy · 09-29-16, 11:34 PM

Almost forgot these. Updated results:

	Sides		Totals
	W	L	W	L
Week 5	1	3	2	2
Week 6	2	2	1	3
Week 7	3	1	2	2
Week 8	3	1	0	4
Week 9	1	3	0	4
Week 10	3	1	1	3
Week 11	2	2	1	4
Week 12	1	2	2	2
Week 13	2	2	3	1
Week 14	1	3	2	2
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20

Totals	19	20	14	27

HeeluvaGuy · 09-29-16, 11:37 PM

Week 15:

Home Team	Current Line	Projected Line	Delta (from Current)	Current Total	Projected Total	Delta (from Current)
Winnipeg	-3.5	-7.9	-4.4	53.5	53.3	-0.2
Hamilton	2.5	29.4	26.9	55	57.9	2.9
BC	-5.5	0.5	6.0	53	51.6	-1.4
Montreal	-3	0.3	3.3	49	46.1	-2.9