NFL Draft Prop bet - Any value here?

brooks85 · 04-24-09, 03:22 PM

RB drafted in the first round UNDER 2.5 is a great bet

slacker00 · 04-24-09, 05:45 PM

QB over 2.5 -400 seems solid. Stafford will be #1 overall, Sanchez will go no lower than #8 overall, that basically leaves Freeman whether he lands in the 1st round or not. Most projections have Freeman in the top 20, so that's plenty of leeway, despite the heavy -400, I'll take it.

Jeremy Maclin draft position o7 -260 seems just as good. There's no way he's going top 6. I've got him slotted at #7 to the Raiders and I think I'm being very generous. But, it sucks setting up a bet that I see being a push probably 50% of the time. Otherwise I think it's a freeroll in case he slides.

Chris Wells - Draft Position o14 -240. I like this one too. Everyone's gonna be gunning for the QBs, OTs, WRs, DLs & LBs. I don't think I saw Wells crack the top 14 in a single Mock draft I've looked at. Those teams in the 10-14 range have bigger issues than RB.

oBaMa_MaNiA · 04-24-09, 05:57 PM

Okay. I'm going in blind here pretty much. I got some spare birthday cash that I have no use of right now, so I'll be spending!

How big should each of them be played? small (1/2 unit), regular (1 unit), x2 bet (2 units), big (x3 unit) or heavy (x4)?

Should be good fun come the week!

ATB515 · 04-24-09, 06:01 PM

no way. There is a good chance Donald Brown gets drafted in the first round. Not worth the risk

Originally posted by brooks85

RB drafted in the first round UNDER 2.5 is a great bet

ATB515 · 04-24-09, 06:03 PM

over 2.5 QBs in the first round is an absolute lock.

brooks85 · 04-24-09, 08:34 PM

-120 is surely worth the "risk". However, laying juice on the O2.5 QB is not worth the risk. Even though it will happen.

slacker00 · 04-24-09, 09:21 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

-120 is surely worth the "risk". However, laying juice on the O2.5 QB is not worth the risk. Even though it will happen.

You seriously think Freeman can drop out of the 1st round?! Man, I mentioned in another thread that it wouldn't surprise me if he went in the top 10. I must be out of my mind.

There's way too many teams looking at QB in the top half of the draft for Freeman to fall all the way to the second round. If Freeman drops out of the top 20, somebody is trading up to get him in the mid to late 20's. No way he lands in the second round.

brooks85 · 04-24-09, 10:46 PM

No, I definitely think Freeman is going in the first. The prop opened for me at -400, now its -570. If i could parlay it, absolutely, but at those odds no thanks.

oBaMa_MaNiA · 04-25-09, 12:50 AM

Originally posted by brooks85

RB drafted in the first round UNDER 2.5 is a great bet

That line has moved to +110 from -120

FreshCoast · 04-25-09, 11:21 AM

What book do you gt these props at? Out of the 4 I'm using only the greek has props but is just o/u for offensive defense and by # of players by conference.... ex.

# of Pac 10 players taken in first round
over 6 +160
under 6 -200

brooks85 · 04-25-09, 12:32 PM

im using 5dimes

Ratterman · 04-25-09, 12:55 PM

Any thoughts on # of ACC players in first round? Sportsbook.com has under 5 at +200, and I looked at a few mocks and they all had either 4 or 5 ACC players in the first round - I didn't see any that had over 5. Did I miscount?

ATB515 · 04-25-09, 01:32 PM

Aaron Curry, Everette Brown, Heyward-Bey, Eugene Monroe, and BJ Raji are locks. Hakeem Nicks, and Michael Johnson are possibilites. There will be at least 5 taken in the first. Not worth it

Originally posted by Ratterman

Any thoughts on # of ACC players in first round? Sportsbook.com has under 5 at +200, and I looked at a few mocks and they all had either 4 or 5 ACC players in the first round - I didn't see any that had over 5. Did I miscount?

Ratterman · 04-25-09, 01:39 PM

I'm seeing quite a few mocks that have Everette Brown in the 2nd round, and very few mocks that have anyone outside the five you listed in the first. I have no idea what the reputation is of any of these sites is though.

oBaMa_MaNiA · 04-25-09, 05:04 PM

Easiest QB money ever, went all in on one betting account, albeit it was only $500. But can't complain about $125!