My book is offering o1.5 TD passes -165, under +135
After doing some poisson calculations, under fair conditions, I came up with a no vig line of -135/+135
Considering the 80%+ chance of rain and heavy winds tonight and the sloppy field in Oakland, I definitely see the edge in the under.
Whether you determine it's enough of an edge to bet it, that's up to you.
Similarly Derek Carr o2 -150, u2 +120, I came up with a no vig line of +105. Probably not worth a bet with under if normal conditions, but again, with the weather, this may be the better bet since with the option of 2TDs here vs Rivers 1.5, you are less likely to lose than you would with Rivers (need 3TDs to lose vs 2 with Rivers).
I'll be on under 2 with Carr at +120
After doing some poisson calculations, under fair conditions, I came up with a no vig line of -135/+135
Considering the 80%+ chance of rain and heavy winds tonight and the sloppy field in Oakland, I definitely see the edge in the under.
Whether you determine it's enough of an edge to bet it, that's up to you.
Similarly Derek Carr o2 -150, u2 +120, I came up with a no vig line of +105. Probably not worth a bet with under if normal conditions, but again, with the weather, this may be the better bet since with the option of 2TDs here vs Rivers 1.5, you are less likely to lose than you would with Rivers (need 3TDs to lose vs 2 with Rivers).
I'll be on under 2 with Carr at +120