Week 15 Teaser

[WWCD]

Hit it last week, so going for it again. Playing it early because JAX line is moving against me.

NYJ +3.5
JAX +3
CAR +1.5
SEA -8
(5 Units to win 10.75)

[JayDr3am]

[xzact12]

There's absolutely no value in teasing jacksonville across the zero--- way too erratic a play.

[WWCD]

There's absolutely no value in teasing jacksonville across the zero--- way too erratic a play.

Prove it.

People keep regurgitating old myths with zero data to support it.

[Renegades]

You have two plays crossing 0. Not smart in the long run. Games pretty much never fall on 0,1, or 2 so you are wasting pts in the tease

[Renegades]

I have data to support it. I'd have to dig it up.

[WWCD]

Good luck with that one.

Teasing across the zero definitely has value in the right situations. Do your research.


Someone stated the same old tired argument about my teaser last week and it hit. So maybe your post is the good luck charm again.

[Renegades]

Something like 1-2% of games land on 1 or 2 which is why teasing thru 0 is bad. You want to cross key numbers. Teasing from -8 to -2 and plus 2 to plus 8 hit at around 75% over the last 10 yrs. a 3 team 6 pointer usually pays +180 so with those odds you need to win about 70% of the plays to be +EV. Based on past data you would be +ev if the teams teased thru key numbers continue to hit at 75%

[WWCD]

There have been plenty of people who have shown the data to prove otherwise. Here is one of many.

http://sharpfootballanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/10/teasing-across-zero-other-teaser-myths.html?m=1

"The best 6 point teaser is teasing RIGHT ACROSS ZERO with a -3.5 or -4 point favorite and making that team a +2 or +2.5 point dog. It's hit 10% more than taking a -2.5 or -3 point favorite and making them a +3 or +3.5 point dog. Typically, you would think "why would I want to tease to +2.5? Wouldn't I want to make sure it was at +3? And you would think so, but based on historical lines, you would be wrong."

[JayDr3am]

Good luck with that one.

Teasing across the zero definitely has value in the right situations. Do your research.


Someone stated the same old tired argument about my teaser last week and it hit. So maybe your post is the good luck charm again.

some ppl just don't get it

[Renegades]

Oh I hope it wins. I never root for anyone to lose. You asked for data, I have data. Its okay to disagree. Its good to share insight and learn. I'll look into what you pointed out and see if it has merit.

Back to the games. Jets make me nervous. Everyone is on them and are calling it the "easy" game of the week.

[JayDr3am]

cant trust the cowgirls.

[WWCD]

Not much going for the Cowboys. McFadden won't win the game for them. Cassel sure won't be the hero. A banged up Dez Bryant could have some success going against Revis, but who is going to get the ball to him? Does not sound promising to me.

But crossing the zero sure makes me feel better if somehow Dallas wins a close one.

[WWCD]

Glad that I crossed the zero.

Even bought half a point on my OMGWTF parlay.

Good start. Hope to finish this off tomorrow.

[JayDr3am]

Glad that I crossed the zero.

Even bought half a point on my OMGWTF parlay.

Good start. Hope to finish this off tomorrow.

look at that.. crossing the zero paid off. GL on the other legs boss!