I don't follow NFL much but here's a model

[aznbluff]

I've never bet NFL before (only casually I guess here and there) because lines are so sharp in this league, but I had nothing else to do for a while so made a model that I want to test and adjust for the next 3 years. Don't expect to beat NFL because lol at everyone else if they've been trying their whole lives to develop workings predictive models for the NFL and failing and this crude piece of garbage works. I will give credit to the human race and expect it to not be that simple. I can already see some flaws in it but don't know how/what to adjust it, so only way to learn that is by testing it for a good sample size (I chose 3 years as a random number, who knows how long it will take; if I even decide to learn about the NFL at all in the meantime as well will be a factor)

Looking for a 4+ perceived edge for a 1 unit bet and a 7.5+ for 2 units. Key numbers blah blah blah. Here's week 1 results:

Again, I don't know shit about the NFL except that athletic black people run around and gamblers lose a lot of money to watch them do it.

GB	62.9		56.36	35.42226	27.47774	65.8		72.68647752	815.7746478	961.7209	29.41465859	30.83637	30.86494	1	0.94	30.86494	27.38695		25.15493	O/U	Offered	Value
CHI	62.8		64.68	40.65138	22.14862	61.7		93.41687124	877.8665511	775.2017	27.81027265	29.10809	29.13506	0.66	0.63	19.22914	19.44491		23.30805	48.46297	49	0.537
	62.85											59.94445							Spread	-1.15312	6.5	7.653
KC	60.1		56.34	35.63505	24.46495	60.4		84.6688788	753.324957	856.27325	28.1908001	28.23778	27.96807	0.74	0.69	20.69637	22.10203		20.13701	O/U	Offered	Value
HOU	66.4		48.07	30.40428	35.99573	56.5		79.35515775	601.2445381	1259.850375	29.22364565	32.34083	32.03193	0.75	0.7	24.02395	19.57765		23.06299	43.2	40	3.200
	63.25											60.57862							Spread	-5.92598	0	5.926
CLE	63.1		52.87	34.07472	29.02529	58.8		84.23269548	701.2576347	1015.884975	28.54794461	30.02292	29.06249	0.66	0.55	19.18124	17.01563		18.30937	O/U	Offered	Value
NYJ	65.8		51.81	33.39155	32.40846	60.2		79.73900946	703.5598532	1134.295925	29.14277793	31.95991	30.93751	0.57	0.6	17.63438	17.43749		17.32501	35.63437	39.5	3.866
	64.45											61.98283							Spread	-2.01564	-3.5	1.484
IND	68.3		62.48	41.26804	27.03196	58.6		102.5098114	846.4075004	946.1186	27.74576738	31.58393	31.60452	0.9	0.99	28.44407	28.11153		24.33548	O/U	Offered	Value
BUF	63.8		60.59	40.0197	23.78031	54.3		109.7340037	760.5743035	832.310675	26.6868179	28.37698	28.39548	0.72	0.64	20.44475	20.22689		24.27814	48.61362	45	3.614
	66.05											59.96091							Spread	-2.94266	2.5	5.443
MIA	65		61.63	39.41239	25.58762	61.9		90.09671211	853.869321	895.566525	28.30050089	30.65888	30.79791	0.81	0.76	24.9463	22.19359		22.32848	O/U	Offered	Value
WSH	62.9		60.14	38.45953	24.44047	59		94.6104438	794.1892945	855.41645	27.7299871	29.07027	29.20209	0.61	0.64	17.81328	19.71066		20.00344	42.33192	43	0.668
	63.95											59.72915							Spread	-0.67495	3	3.675
CAR	66.9		54.69	35.19302	31.70699	59.5		85.51902645	732.8945374	1109.744475	28.82149535	32.13597	32.09922	0.66	0.69	21.18549	19.25154		17.49408	O/U	Offered	Value
JAX	61.8		63.5	40.86225	20.93775	58.9		100.7663085	842.3752838	732.82125	27.11913984	27.93271	27.90078	0.57	0.43	15.90344	13.80267		17.57749	35.07157	40.5	5.428
	64.35											60.06868							Spread	-3.08341	3	6.083
SEA	63.5		48.56	29.93724	33.56276	63.4		65.74217904	664.3073556	1174.6966	29.99600212	31.74577	31.79395	0.76	0.83	24.1634	23.41102		21.30195	O/U	Offered	Value
STL	59.8		58.73	36.20705	23.59296	61.6		83.42103168	780.6238902	825.753425	28.25749744	28.16331	28.20605	0.69	0.58	19.46217	18.44049		21.4366	42.73854	40.5	2.239
	61.65											59.90907							Spread	-3.13465	4	7.135
NO	68.4		62.92	40.77216	27.62784	66.2		82.68594048	944.6909472	966.9744	29.15718257	33.23919	32.23639	0.82	0.82	26.43384	22.76616		22.40429	O/U	Offered	Value
ARI	61.2		60.38	39.12624	22.07376	62.6		87.79928256	857.2559184	772.5816	28.0659608	28.62728	27.76361	0.65	0.57	18.04635	18.37474		20.40626	42.81054	48.5	5.689
	64.8											61.86647							Spread	-1.00197	-2.5	1.498
DET	65.4		62.41	40.09843	25.30158	59.6		97.1985822	836.4531455	885.555125	27.81661854	30.32011	30.07461	0.63	0.67	18.94701	20.05001		19.84924	O/U	Offered	Value
SD	63.1		60.56	38.9098	24.1902	64.7		82.4109564	881.112421	846.657	28.68748617	30.16967	29.92539	0.7	0.69	20.94777	20.75148		20.49889	40.34813	45.5	5.152
	64.25											60.48979							Spread	-3.64965	-3	0.650
CIN	63.4		52.41	32.88728	30.51273	61.6		75.7722816	709.049649	1067.945375	29.22345908	30.87946	31.5609	0.75	0.72	23.67067	20.47615		19.25215	O/U	Offered	Value
OAK	62.1		66.1	41.47775	20.62225	58.1		104.2750635	843.4500463	721.77875	26.88412012	27.82506	28.4391	0.56	0.47	15.9259	14.83362		18.20103	37.45317	43.5	6.047
	62.75											58.70452							Spread	-1.94888	3	4.949
BAL	63.9		56.43	36.87701	27.023	60.5		87.39850185	780.8705809	945.804825	28.38926303	30.23457	28.90998	0.86	0.8	24.86258	24.87201		26.45263	O/U	Offered	Value
DEN	66.8		59.21	38.69374	28.10627	65.5		80.09603145	887.0538749	983.719275	29.20462846	32.51449	31.09002	0.98	0.97	30.46822	28.04268		27.67012	54.12275	48	6.123
	65.35											62.74905							Spread	-4.21748	-4.5	0.283
NYG	67.9		58.66	38.21699	29.68301	59		94.0137954	789.1808435	1038.90535	28.30780543	32.035	30.55005	0.77	0.8	23.52354	23.55996		27.03679	O/U	Offered	Value
DAL	62.4		50.36	32.80954	29.59046	65.2		68.50631952	748.7137028	1035.6661	29.69368786	30.88144	29.44995	0.89	1	26.21046	30.55005		24.88521	51.922	51.5	0.422
	65.15											62.91644							Spread	-0.84842	-6	5.152

With my buffer zone, the bets are
CHI +6.5 2u
HOU pk 1u
BUF +2.5 1u
CAR/JAX Under 40.5 1u
JAX +3 1u
STL +4 1u
NO/ARI Under 48.5 1u
DET/SD Under 45.5 1u
CIN/OAK Under 43.5 1u
OAK +3
BAL/DEN Over 48 1u
NYG +6 1u

I'm not even betting these myself since its way too many, although I agree with some of the underrated home dogs picked. Particularly STL, BUF, and OAK. Hate unders in week 1, since all the defenses suck, but it is what it is. Also hate the BAL/DEN Over since Peyton can't throw a football anymore and the coaches have emphasized POUND THE ROCK but whatever, we'll see. Thanks for reading my thread; if you don't like it no one really cares. Enjoy your weekend guys.

[slacker00]

I don't know what your spreadsheet numbers mean or how you came up with them, column headers are missing...

But at least you posted a bunch of picks, we'll see how you do. GL!

[dfish]

Again, I don't know shit about the NFL except that athletic black people run around and gamblers lose a lot of money to watch them do it.