NFL Plays - Week 1

[LT Profits]

THURSDAY, 9/10
Steelers / Patriots OVER 51.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

SUNDAY, 9/13
Chiefs / Texans UNDER 41 -107 (Heritage)
Jaguars +3 +101 (Heritage)
Saints +2.5 +100 (Heritage)
Ravens +4.5 -105 (Heritage)


2014 FINAL: 79-57-2, +21.50

[LT Profits]

Now a Thursday Side & Total

THURSDAY, 9/10
Steelers +7 +101 (Heritage)
Steelers / Patriots OVER 51.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

SUNDAY, 9/13
Chiefs / Texans UNDER 41 -107 (Heritage)
Jaguars +3 +101 (Heritage)
Saints +2.5 +100 (Heritage)
Ravens +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

[jets2580]

Glad to see you are back LT. Thoughts are with you big guy.

[Vinnie Paz]

Lt do you have an nfl model you use for these?

[Mike Huntertz]

Got same side and ovah!
GL

[lakerboy]

like them all

[bocajuniorska]

thanks for the picks. will hit on them too. gl

[LtDarsh]

go steelers go!

[bettoy]

Hi
Tailing the Jaguars pick
Good luck all

[bettoy]

Whats your confidence for the Ravens?

[POOLSIDE]

Can I ask you to explain the Saints pick? I'm all over Arizona for a multitude of reasons. I don't see any value here at all, especially under +3.

[GunShard]

Good luck with your bets.
I have the opposite perception and on the other side against the Jags, Saints and Ravens.

[LT Profits]

Lt do you have an nfl model you use for these?

Yes, I model everything except preseason NFL.

[LT Profits]

Whats your confidence for the Ravens?

I don't rate my plays because I bet 99% if them the same amount. I suppose if the 1% arises, I could mention it, but for grading purposes all plays are 1 unit. So to answer your question, confidence is no more or less than any of the other plays.

[LT Profits]

Can I ask you to explain the Saints pick? I'm all over Arizona for a multitude of reasons. I don't see any value here at all, especially under +3.

For Week 1, I am just following the model without much "analysis" interjection. And model has this game close to a Pick (Arizona -0.33).

[pavyracer]

LT's model on Week1 is about flipping a quarter. Home team is heads...road team is tails.

[LT Profits]

1 NFL Addition Sunday

SUNDAY, 9/13
Chiefs / Texans UNDER 41 -107 (Heritage)
Jaguars +3 +101 (Heritage)
Saints +2.5 +100 (Heritage)
Titans +3 -107 (Heritage)
Ravens +4.5 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 0-1-1, -1.05

[POOLSIDE]

For Week 1, I am just following the model without much "analysis" interjection. And model has this game close to a Pick (Arizona -0.33).

Gotcha. Good luck Sunday.

[Vinnie Paz]

What's your projection for the Washington game? Been liking the over

[LT Profits]

What's your projection for the Washington game? Been liking the over

Yeah, that could be good. I have 45.77. I'm just worried about Skins offensive line, so holding off personally.

[SharpAngles]

+2.5 is the ugliest number in the NFL. At EV no less, they're begging you to take the saints LT.

If you like +2.5 why not a ML play? You really think they lose by 1 or 2 more often than winning SU?

[LT Profits]

+2.5 is the ugliest number in the NFL. At EV no less, they're begging you to take the saints LT.

If you like +2.5 why not a ML play? You really think they lose by 1 or 2 more often than winning SU?

+2.5 +100 is roughly equivalent to ML of +121. Saw nothing close to that at time of post (even now, consensus is around +115).

[2buckluck]

THURSDAY, 9/10
Steelers +7 +101 (Heritage)
Steelers / Patriots OVER 51.5 -105 (5 Dimes)

SUNDAY, 9/13
Chiefs / Texans UNDER 41 -107 (Heritage)
Jaguars +3 +101 (Heritage)
Saints +2.5 +100 (Heritage)
Ravens +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

I was able to live bet this Game last night in the first quarter Over 42.5 and Steelers +7.5 ... Got lucky on both I guess, but I like your model and I believe you've had success with NFL, (and i've seen the MLB model work so that's reassuring)... thinking I may try this out...

I'm just wondering if live betting the model when odds improve could also lead to good outcomes, and laying off if odds don't get better in game ... hmmm

Either way, thanks for sharing LT!

[LT Profits]

1 NFL Addition

SUNDAY, 9/13
Chiefs / Texans UNDER 41 -107 (Heritage)
Jaguars +3 +101 (Heritage)
Rams +4 -108 (5 Dimes)
Saints +2.5 +100 (Heritage)
Titans +3 -107 (Heritage)
Ravens +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

[NYER5680]

good luck Lt

[LT Profits]

3 More NFL Plays

SUNDAY, 9/13
Chiefs / Texans UNDER 41 -107 (Heritage)
Jaguars +3 +101 (Heritage)
Panthers / Jaguars UNDER 41 -105 (Heritage)
Rams +4 -108 (5 Dimes)
Saints +2.5 +100 (Heritage)
Titans +3 -107 (Heritage)
Raiders +3 -105 (Heritage)
Raiders +1 -109 (First Half) (Heritage)
Ravens +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

[Bs1194]

Damn, missed the Panthers under and it's looking pretty good right now

[LT Profits]

Damn, missed the Panthers under and it's looking pretty good right now

Ya, sorry for the late post, too much going on at one time and I almost missed finalizing my fantasy lineups.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

Fantasy lineups?!! Aw, that's disappointing, man......

[LT Profits]

Fantasy lineups?!! Aw, that's disappointing, man......

Not at all, $250 entry with $1500 for first place. Although the SBR ones are fun too.

[pavyracer]

Model needs a tune up.

[LT Profits]

Model needs a tune up.

It's early. Note the 2014 record in Post 1, no need to panic. And didn't have the best of breaks with New Orleans and Baltimore.

[Ambition]

Tough week 1, LT. But, you're absolutely right, no need to panic. That's why you don't bet the house on each game nor in Week 1. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Best of luck, LT

[Bs1194]

Any plays for tonight?

[LT Profits]

Any plays for tonight?

No, my Week 1 is done.