Colts +2.5 @ Denver

[naloboy]

den to win, weather will be a factor. did u c how manning got pushed around even if he got back up. in den. with the weather it hurt more than washington. tough qb. but look for lots of opp. for den. defense. i wouldn't be surprise that den. def. pick two for scores.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

A 13 game home winning streak for the Broncos is not going to scare the Colts...
Since 2003 when Dungy took over, we are an NFL best 26-8 on the road...
A memorable road win was in 2004 I believe against the Chiefs @ Arrowhead Stadium in the divisional round... The Chiefs had won all 8 games @ home that year and we went in there and ran them up and down the field... Then proceeded to get F'ed over against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game before they put illegal contact into play! Marcus Pollard, the reason illegal contact penalties exist in the NFL now!
I'm not saying that we will run the Broncos D up and down the field but we will score atleast 2 TD's on them this Sunday... And the Broncos lousy offense even against our defense will not be enough... "Booger" McFarland will shut the run down! The Bell's will not ring on Sunday!
Colts ML all the way here...

Let's Go Horse!

[nosuzieno]

Indy +3 at Cris...If it hits 3.5, will giddy up go for one lil' unit~

[slacker00]

Plummer cannot match Manning TD for TD. I don't care what the Denver Defense has done so far this year. They haven't faced Manning yet.

Buy Colts on the ML +125, as well as +3 -110, and include the Colts in all 6 pt teasers.

I don't tout the Colts much, because I am very supersitious about betting on my favorite teams, but they roll the Broncos this weekend.

[Razz]

A 13 game home winning streak for the Broncos is not going to scare the Colts (It should, but the best defense in the NFL will have already done that)...
Since 2003 when Dungy took over, we are an NFL best 26-8 on the road (Thanks for mentioning Dungy, which is another great case to fade the Colts here)...
A memorable road win was in 2004 (not against Denver, who beat the Colts 33-14 at Mile High) I believe against the Chiefs @ Arrowhead Stadium in the divisional round (Those Chiefs couldn't stop a beer fart, these Broncos are giving up 7.33 ppg)... The Chiefs had won all 8 games @ home that year and we went in there and ran them up and down the field (won by 7)... Then proceeded to get F'ed over against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game before they put illegal contact into play!(Got blown out, only scored 3 points) Marcus Pollard, the reason illegal contact penalties exist in the NFL now!
I'm not saying that we will run the Broncos D up and down the field (I'd hope not, considering they haven't given up a TD in a game they led by fewer than 17 points) but we will score at least 2 TD's on them this Sunday (Maybe, but I'd take the under 2 touchdowns)... And the Broncos lousy offense even against our defense () will not be enough (Tatum Bell will lead the NFL in fantasy points this week)... "Booger" McFarland will shut the run down! (He's a pash rusher, not a run stopper) The Bell's will not ring on Sunday (They will rush for 200+ yards and 3+ TDs)!
Colts ML all the way (to the poor house) here...

Let's Go Horse!

Good luck with your team, but I really think they're in a bad spot this week.

[slacker00]

Maybe, but I'd take the under 2 touchdowns

Razz, you gotta be drinking some finer stuff than I am tonight. Do you really believe the Denver defense is for real? I think Peyton is gonna slice them up and show them for what they are. Plummer is going to have to get his ass in gear, or this team isn't going anywhere this year, but he's still got half a season to figure out. Plummer doesn't figure it out this week.

[Razz]

Razz, you gotta be drinking some finer stuff than I am tonight. (Absolutely) Do you really believe the Denver defense is for real? (Absolutely) I think Peyton is gonna slice them up and show them for what they are (Have a hard time seeing that. @ NE is a lot tougher game than at home against Indy). Plummer is going to have to get his ass in gear (Absolutely), or this team isn't going anywhere this year (Well, the Broncos could make the playoffs with an actual plumber at quarterback), but he's still got half a season to figure out. Plummer doesn't figure it out this week (He won't need to, the running backs will go wild).

I mean, I could be entirely wrong here, but this is the largest NFL bet I've ever placed.

[slacker00]

Have a hard time seeing that. @ NE is a lot tougher game than at home against Indy

Indy is going to put up points. Manning with Harrison & Wayne is much more formidable than Brady & two guys whose names he doesn't even know. NE will be strong offensively on the backside of the regular season, but there was a definite adjustment period going through the Denver game. Indy is firing on all cylinders offensively right now. This one will be a shootout & Denver just can't keep up offensively, unless they devise some bizarre strategy similar to what Pittsburgh used in the playoffs last year. But I still think the Colts overcome. "Fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice, shame on me.". Colts 31 Broncos 27

[imgv94]

Razz you are the man bro!!!! Hilarious input by you in this thread bud.. I agree Den is the way to go in this game...

Not often can you get the much better defense at home and give less than a FG... Dungy vs Shanahan? Please...

[McBa1n]

I mean, I could be entirely wrong here, but this is the largest NFL bet I've ever placed.

With all due respect - saying you're betting so much and not giving 1 reason why... And then coming back and saying it's 'your biggest bet of all time' or something makes me question why anyone should listen. I know you're good at picking college, but I followed your NFL picks last year - and they weren't quite as sound. What makes you believe you have an edge here, for real? If you're willing to make your biggest bet ever, you should probably at least have a reason why... I mean - 1 reason why, or some point that actually means something. I havn't heard ONE argument from a capping standpoint here over this game from the +Broncos side. If you don't wanna talk - then don't. I don't even know why I try giving information if dudes are gonna talk like that... I thought we were playin on the same team.

If not, GL on Sunday, I'm on the other side and wish you the best... Even though I really don't:>. Seriously. Don't spam less you got somethin:> That's all I'm sayin.

[nosuzieno]

Interesting look aheads to week 9, as Indy travels to NE, Denver to Pitt...The winner of this one is probably susceptible in the next. Speaking of Pitt, I assume all the talk of Denver's 13 game home streak is reg season only
_________________________________
"We Won, We won!"...Um, er, but I bet on the other team so we won't be going out for pizza."
Police Chief Wiggums (The Simpsons)

[SYCEONER]

Listen Folks, there is no F'in way Jake the snake and the broncs win this game!!! Are you people nuts??? Peyton will no lose this game, MARK MY WORDS!!!!!!!! All I know is my car will have much better rims after this game is over

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Razz you can go ahead and put your money where your mouth is on the lousy Broncos offense! 13 pts a game this season? They scored a whopping 13 count em 13 points against the Raiders!!! I mean I don't know about you, but I think the Raiders are pretty good this year man! Jake Johnny Bootleg Plummer can bring that garbage all game. Freeney and Mathis will knock him down all game. Bring on Champ Bailey- Mr. Lockdown apparently and Lynch... Manning will throw against anyone at anytime. It doesn't matter who covers Wayne and Harrison, they will be open all day!

[maritime]

Razz you can go ahead and put your money where your mouth is on the lousy Broncos offense! 13 pts a game this season? They scored a whopping 13 count em 13 points against the Raiders!!! I mean I don't know about you, but I think the Raiders are pretty good this year man! Jake Johnny Bootleg Plummer can bring that garbage all game. Freeney and Mathis will knock him down all game. Bring on Champ Bailey- Mr. Lockdown apparently and Lynch... Manning will throw against anyone at anytime. It doesn't matter who covers Wayne and Harrison, they will be open all day!

I see a lot of "we's" and "our's" in this thread. Betting with your heart or on "your" team is generally a recipe for disaster. You want a reason to bet the Broncos. Here's one. Public money is coming in all over the Colts. And guess what the line has done? Hasn't moved a bit, or depending on the book, has gone to -3.

It sounds like you Colts backers are thinking they're going undefeated this year because I don't see how the arguments your using couldn't be used for every other game the Colts play the rest of the season. After all, if walking into Denver, one of the best home field advantages in sports, and beating a defense that is playing as well as they are, with a weak ass run defense of your own, is so solid a play, then surely they are going undefeated because I can't see any other scenario on their schedule that would be tougher.

[bside]

Been lurking here for a while, first post...

First of all I wouldn't touch this game with your money. But I can give you several reasons not to take the Colts:

Everyone knows the Broncos haven't had a meaningful win against the Colts in years. Mike Shanahan rebuilt his Defense specifically to deal with the Colts in the post season. He traded Portis for Champ so that he could shut down half the field. In previous match ups the Broncos have thrown every blitz package known to man at Manning. Which Manning of course was able to pick right through. This year however the Broncos are generating good pressure up front without having to blitz. I think they will get to Manning with Dumerville and Lang while dropping their speedy linebackers into coverage to prevent the check down. This is a measuring stick game for this defense. This defense has given up 4 fieldgoals in three home games and I look for them to continue to shut down the Colts offense this week. Not shut them out but definitely slow them down.

Denver will have to score some points to win but I see them being able to run the ball on this depleted defense. Indy is giving up 158 yards a game and 5.2 yards per carry. Only the Titans are worse. This is not a recipe for a win on the road against the stingiest D in the league.

And finally Mike Shanahan was embarrassed by this team twice. He has been scheming for this game since the schedule came out. He has plenty of tape to look at to devise a game plan that will work (Pittsburgh, Jets,Tennessee, Washington (1st half)). So while the Colts have their nemesis on the horizon (@ Pats next week), the Broncos have been gunning for this game all season.

This has all the makings of being a great football game.

[Razz]

This is the best post I've seen here this year:

Been lurking here for a while, first post...

First of all I wouldn't touch this game with your money. But I can give you several reasons not to take the Colts:

Everyone knows the Broncos haven't had a meaningful win against the Colts in years. Mike Shanahan rebuilt his Defense specifically to deal with the Colts in the post season. He traded Portis for Champ so that he could shut down half the field. In previous match ups the Broncos have thrown every blitz package known to man at Manning. Which Manning of course was able to pick right through. This year however the Broncos are generating good pressure up front without having to blitz. I think they will get to Manning with Dumerville and Lang while dropping their speedy linebackers into coverage to prevent the check down. This is a measuring stick game for this defense. This defense has given up 4 fieldgoals in three home games and I look for them to continue to shut down the Colts offense this week. Not shut them out but definitely slow them down.

Denver will have to score some points to win but I see them being able to run the ball on this depleted defense. Indy is giving up 158 yards a game and 5.2 yards per carry. Only the Titans are worse. This is not a recipe for a win on the road against the stingiest D in the league.

And finally Mike Shanahan was embarrassed by this team twice. He has been scheming for this game since the schedule came out. He has plenty of tape to look at to devise a game plan that will work (Pittsburgh, Jets,Tennessee, Washington (1st half)). So while the Colts have their nemesis on the horizon (@ Pats next week), the Broncos have been gunning for this game all season.

This has all the makings of being a great football game.

Since bside mentioned pretty much every reason to play the Broncos, I won't rehash - though it's indescribably important that Shanahan has completely retooled this team to beat the Colts - but I will add some more.
Maritime already mentioned one - the public is on the dog (my numbers show 70%), and yet the line is rising. The public is infatuated by the glitz and glamour of the Colts' passing game, and don't realize that Denver is going to pound out a win in relatively easy fashion.
Also, looking at strength of schedule, the Broncos have played three home games and three road games. Their opponents' record is 18-18. The Colts have played four home games and two road games (against the Giants the first week of the season, when they couldn't play at all, and against the Jets). Their opponents' record is 16-22. Pretty noticable difference for this early in the season.
Plummer only looks bad when he is forced to beat the opposing defense (the Ravens game was a good example of this, even though they won - whenever he plays someone that can't stop the run, he is as good as anyone in the league). That won't be the case this week, as the Colts will be biting on playaction all day.
This is the largest run differential in the NFL this year. This is calculated by adding Denver's ypc (4.5) to Indy's ypc allowed (5.2). Doing the same for Indy's ypc (3.9) and Denver's ypc allowed (3.6). The difference is 2.2. In an average year, about three or four games have differentials over 2, and the ATS record on those games is close to 80%.
First of all, the Broncos secondary IS equipped to handle the Colts' passing game, but more importantly, the Broncos offense will keep Manning and Company on the sidelines.

FYI, McBain, my NFL record this season is 24-12-1, +19.53 units. Before this game, the most I had ever bet on a game was last year, when I had the Chargers +7.5 and moneyline against the 13-0 Colts. The Colts didn't cover +7.5 in that game. This year's Colts team isn't as good on either side of the ball, and the Broncos match up better with them than they ever have in the past.

[r2d2]

bside, welcome to the forum my friend. feel free to post often. that is some very well thought out material. Like all your takes.

[dave11486]

Also, this game will be much like a playoff game as far as the magnitude and the crowd involvement. We all know how Peyton Manning performs in the playoffs.

Denver is the play whether it is what you want to hear or not.

[nosuzieno]

This is the best post I've seen here this year:

Since bside mentioned pretty much every reason to play the Broncos, I won't rehash - though it's indescribably important that Shanahan has completely retooled this team to beat the Colts - but I will add some more.
Maritime already mentioned one - the public is on the dog (my numbers show 70%), and yet the line is rising. The public is infatuated by the glitz and glamour of the Colts' passing game, and don't realize that Denver is going to pound out a win in relatively easy fashion.
Also, looking at strength of schedule, the Broncos have played three home games and three road games. Their opponents' record is 18-18. The Colts have played four home games and two road games (against the Giants the first week of the season, when they couldn't play at all, and against the Jets). Their opponents' record is 16-22. Pretty noticable difference for this early in the season.
Plummer only looks bad when he is forced to beat the opposing defense (the Ravens game was a good example of this, even though they won - whenever he plays someone that can't stop the run, he is as good as anyone in the league). That won't be the case this week, as the Colts will be biting on playaction all day.
This is the largest run differential in the NFL this year. This is calculated by adding Denver's ypc (4.5) to Indy's ypc allowed (5.2). Doing the same for Indy's ypc (3.9) and Denver's ypc allowed (3.6). The difference is 2.2. In an average year, about three or four games have differentials over 2, and the ATS record on those games is close to 80%.
First of all, the Broncos secondary IS equipped to handle the Colts' passing game, but more importantly, the Broncos offense will keep Manning and Company on the sidelines.

FYI, McBain, my NFL record this season is 24-12-1, +19.53 units. Before this game, the most I had ever bet on a game was last year, when I had the Chargers +7.5 and moneyline against the 13-0 Colts. The Colts didn't cover +7.5 in that game. This year's Colts team isn't as good on either side of the ball, and the Broncos match up better with them than they ever have in the past.

Best game of year, Best quote of year (just happens to support your side), you really hit the jackpot on this one! Would suggest that Denver revamping team to beat non-division foe a stretch and after last year, better logic to prep for teams like Pitt who beat them and whose style closer to division contenders KC and SD... Denver runs because they can't pass and vice versa with Indy...Money (define public otherwise and be careful of sports books figures ALWAYS) is on the colts yet their line is rising. hmm. Maybe this is a good spot for Broncos at-2.5 (only), but why anyone sees this as some lock of the year on either side escapes me. Bet against Denver at home? Lay points to Colts? As someone said, many appear to be capping this with heart than head and on both sides. Would love to see push at den -3, with early broncos and late colts bets both getting pad. Nonetheless, Good luck to all...

[r2d2]

OK RAZZ, what gives???? I don't get it my friend. I love your insight, and read all your takes. SO, I now admit i am utterly confused by your remarks in this thread compared to your "best bet" in the beat the prick contest this week. You have marked the indy colts +2.5 as your best bet for week 8 of the contest?????? You damn near had me believing in my broncos. What gives with the change of heart from this thread to the picks??? thanks in advance for your response.

[dave11486]

I am guessing he is gonna fade his own pick in case one of them goes wrong...sometimes it scares me when I am so confident in something

[bside]

Thanks for the welcome.

Nosuzieno-

I didn't say Shanny rebuilt his team to beat Indy. I said Shanny rebuilt his defense to beat Indy. And its not a suppossition it is supported by fact. After the 41-10 trouncing in 2003 wildcard game, Shanny promptly pulled off the biggest marque player swap of this decade with Portis for Champ. He also brought in John Lynch to make his secondary tougher. After the 2004 49-24 embarassment, which was really worse than the score indicated (35-3 at half), Shanny responded by drafting three straight speed corners in Darrent Williams, Domonique Foxworth and Karl Paymah. Surely he didn't need these quality corners to cover Eric Parker, Reche Caldwell, Eddie Kennison, or Samie Parker. Shannahan builds teams to win championships not division titles. His team was already built for division titles. Run first and bootleg when they stack the box. Denver/Shanahan were running long before they couldn't pass. Denver runs the ball because that is what you have to do to win a championship. Like I said before, I wouldn't touch this game. For just the reasons you mentioned - "Bet against Denver at home? Lay points to Colts?" I was just laying out some reasons to be wary of the Colts

[Illusion]

I also like Denver this weekend. Indy never plays well in the cold.

[imgv94]

I am thinking about putting the Seahawks as my bestbet in the BTP contest cause it seems like the BTP contest jinxs my plays.. I left out UCLA last week and they won and the week before I did the same thing...

[r2d2]

I am thinking about putting the Seahawks as my bestbet in the BTP contest cause it seems like the BTP contest jinxs my plays.. I left out UCLA last week and they won and the week before I did the same thing...

so you are saying maybe razz used the colts +2.5 so as not to jinx his real money bet on the donkeys?? I might buy that, just didn't picture razz as the superstitious type. Then again, it is halloween weekend coming up! Anyway, will you please step forward RAZZ and shed some light on this. The people want to know Anyway, I am heading to Vegas Saturday night!!!! Can't wait to view the game with a cocktail or nine at the sportsbook! Wish me lots of luck boys! (and my broncos).

[nosuzieno]

Thanks for the welcome.

Nosuzieno-

I didn't say Shanny rebuilt his team to beat Indy. I said Shanny rebuilt his defense to beat Indy. And its not a suppossition it is supported by fact. After the 41-10 trouncing in 2003 wildcard game, Shanny promptly pulled off the biggest marque player swap of this decade with Portis for Champ. He also brought in John Lynch to make his secondary tougher. After the 2004 49-24 embarassment, which was really worse than the score indicated (35-3 at half), Shanny responded by drafting three straight speed corners in Darrent Williams, Domonique Foxworth and Karl Paymah. Surely he didn't need these quality corners to cover Eric Parker, Reche Caldwell, Eddie Kennison, or Samie Parker. Shannahan builds teams to win championships not division titles. His team was already built for division titles. Run first and bootleg when they stack the box. Denver/Shanahan were running long before they couldn't pass. Denver runs the ball because that is what you have to do to win a championship. Like I said before, I wouldn't touch this game. For just the reasons you mentioned - "Bet against Denver at home? Lay points to Colts?" I was just laying out some reasons to be wary of the Colts

Actually, you did say "it's indescribably important that Shanahan has completely retooled this TEAM" but your reasoning and refinement to defense was very well stated and I appreciate your input. I don't disagree...Just saw on sports center Plummer's 60 rating second worse in his career and the talking heads were predicting Cutler plays before season over......Denver's O and Indy's D reasons enough for me to stay away... Let me add in welcoming you~

[SexyMit]

If I may interject something, Denver has not even givin up a touchdown at home am I correct. Plus only 2 touchdowns on the raod all year. That 13 points a game apparently is all they need when you don't even give up a touchdown at home. So even though they can't score, apparently they don't need too because they are not giving up points anyway. If I also remember correctly Indi almost lost at home to Tenn one of the worst teams, so I would have to take Denver at home one of the hardest fields in the NFL to play on.

[imgv94]

so you are saying maybe razz used the colts +2.5 so as not to jinx his real money bet on the donkeys?? I might buy that, just didn't picture razz as the superstitious type. Then again, it is halloween weekend coming up! Anyway, will you please step forward RAZZ and shed some light on this. The people want to know Anyway, I am heading to Vegas Saturday night!!!! Can't wait to view the game with a cocktail or nine at the sportsbook! Wish me lots of luck boys! (and my broncos).

Razz and I spoke on the phone the other night and him and I discussed how it seems the games we enter in the contest are jinxed and how we should just leave our real best bets out of the contest...

So I can almost guarantee that is what Razz is doing..

[goldengoat]

i really don't know who will win

denver needs a fast start more than the colts do

the 1st quarter will tell so much, i wish this were a live bet capable game

[Knoxy]

Colts +9.5 Over 39.5

Denver has played great at home (well the defense anyway) but this trend cannot continue I don't think. I think most decent teams would have found some success against them this week but since it's Indy, all the more so.

[Razz]

OK RAZZ, what gives???? I don't get it my friend. I love your insight, and read all your takes. SO, I now admit i am utterly confused by your remarks in this thread compared to your "best bet" in the beat the prick contest this week. You have marked the indy colts +2.5 as your best bet for week 8 of the contest?????? You damn near had me believing in my broncos. What gives with the change of heart from this thread to the picks??? thanks in advance for your response.

Yeah, I'm like 80% on my regular plays and 20% on my best bet plays since the start of the BTP contest. Hoping that continues this week (all my regular picks I actually like).

[josebla89]

Peyton manning will for sure be one of the best qbs of all time but this sunday the colts will fall short. Once again home field advantage means something espically when your talking about stadiums like Milehigh. Peyton manning has never played very well in playoff atmosphere games and this game is definitely going to be like that. Everyone keeps saying that the colts are running on all cylinders; well the same can be said for denver defense. If the broncos lose this game its going to be jake plummer that does it turning the ball over. The denver D will do enough to keep them in the game. Personally i dont think i'm going to touch this game but i'm not on the colts bandwagon. If Peyton plays well in a bigtime game i'll gladly eat my words but i just simply do not see it happening. small play on denver . Going to go big on Carolina again they should have beaten the bengals and will make amends this week against the struggling cowboys anyhow thats my 2 cents good luck to all

[Jay Edgar]

This is a terrific thread -- passionate, informed, respectful.

Really a pleasure to read.

Welcome bside, and to all.

I played DEN -2 @ Skybook, normal size bet. May add to it later, but only slightly and at 2.5 or 3. I've only backed DEN once this year -- at NE. Anything can happen here, but I see that kind of big-game performance by DEN, with the Colts having trouble in every phase. Granted it's a very important position, but QB is the ONLY position where DEN gives anything at all away to IND, in my view. In fact it's not particularly close anywhere else that I can think of.

[imgv94]

It's quite simple

If you like

Offense- Indy
Defense- Denver

Thank you...

[Razz]

Pointless stat: Denver has covered its seventh game of the year 9 times in a row at home.

Not-so-pointless stat: The Colts have failed to cover their last five tries as a road underdog. The thinking here is that when the public sees the Colts as an underdog, they immediately jump on them, but the oddsmakers aren't idiots, and Indy is always a dog for a reason.