To hedge or not to hedge

[5918mike]

I have 2 futures bets on the Hawks to win, one made in June was 500 to win 2750 and the other was made during the preseason when they destroyed the Bears at 200 to win 900. The Hawks fan in me says swing for the fences and go for it, the practical, bill paying side of me says take a nice guaranteed payday.

[Big Bear]

I got Seahawks 6 to 1.

$800 to win $4,800

i have 13 days to study and handicap this game from every possible angle. I don't plan to make a decision anytime soon.

[2daBank]

nobody can tell ya the right answer. really just depends how important the money is to you. the "practical bill paying side" statement kinda sounds like you could use the for sure paycheck. if im reading that correctly it sounds like ya should prob take the guaranteed money.. personally i would prob let it ride getting great odds on a virtual pick'em (even tho i like the pats, that besides the point and anyone giving you a answer based upon who they think gonna win is not worth listening to)., but that doesnt mean it the best decision for you and where you at financially at the moment.. gl whatever you decide..

[Big Bear]

Seattle definitely benefits more from the week off. They need this week off badly to recover from injuries and get focused on how they are going to get to Brady and put some hard licks on him. I think this game sets up very similar to last years Super Bowl vs Broncos... you have absolutely got to put the QB on his ass. You have an aging QB going up against a relentless young defense that is hard hitting and with the best secondary in the NFL. Nobody matches up better against the Patriots than the Seahawks.

The week off really hurts the Patriots. I'm sure the Patriots would love to play the Super Bowl tomorrow if they could since they are full of confidence and momentum coming off the 45-7 win. This long lay off will kill the Patriots momentum.

One thing is for certain this will be a much harder opponent than the Patriots faced yesterday. This time they don't get the luxury of playing at home against a weak defense. This time they play an aggressive defense that will hit you you in the mouth. I can't think of a Safety in the NFL i would rather have laying the smack down on Gronk than Kam Chancelor.

I also like that its a longer travel for the Patriots and i take comfort knowing that the public will be all over the Patriots in this game.

Seems like the perfect storm IMO. I think the Patriots may get their ass handed to them like the Broncos did last year.

One thing Tom Brady does not like is when you get physical with him. Remember the Kansas City Chiefs game???? That is the recipe to defeat Brady... you gotta hit him in his mouth. Brady will fold up shop and quit if you kick hiss ass.

I don't care if they take a 15 yard penalty for roughing the passer or not... if the Seahawks get a chance they better lay Brady out the same way Joey Bosa did against Marriota. The tougher more physical team will win this game.

[diondublin]

Why not split the difference?

If you really can't decide between a total hedge and no hedge at all, hedge half of it.

Also what do you mean 'hedge'? Do you just wish to cover your stake so no outcome makes a loss, or lock in a specific profit whatever the outcome?

In any case, if unsure I would split the difference.

However Seattle looks good to me. I have a similar situation to you so hedged one-quarter of it last night though, just in case!

[Ebumdude]

Why not split the difference?

If you really can't decide between a total hedge and no hedge at all, hedge half of it.

Also what do you mean 'hedge'? Do you just wish to cover your stake so no outcome makes a loss, or lock in a specific profit whatever the outcome?

In any case, if unsure I would split the difference.

However Seattle looks good to me. I have a similar situation to you so hedged one-quarter of it last night though, just in case!

This.

[Git Lo]

Hedge Hawks for sure

[firekillex]

Would definitely hedge, love the thrill but it's about the money in the end, be smart about it, can just watch the game as a fan 0 stress and make some $$
cheers

[2daBank]

Would definitely hedge, love the thrill but it's about the money in the end, be smart about it, can just watch the game as a fan 0 stress and make some $$
cheers

it all bout the action for me... any time i been in that spot w a SB future i let it ride, last time was with sf against balty so obviously didnt work out but i still wouldnt change it. makes the gm awesome to watch. if i hedged i wouldnt even watch the damn gm. the money cant make up for that feeling, it only money. ya cant buy that feeling.. some would say im a little messed up tho

[pbaking]

Always hedge. Guaranteed money is the best!

[GunShard]

I got Seahawks 6 to 1.

$800 to win $4,800

i have 13 days to study and handicap this game from every possible angle. I don't plan to make a decision anytime soon.

I'm letting my +550 Seahawks bet ride because defense wins championships and the public is all over the Patriots.
Let it ride!

[pugsondrugs]

If it's a huge portion of your bankroll, then wait until you see it go to pats +2 or +2.5 and grab it. I wouldn't bet it now...

[2daBank]

I'm letting my +550 Seahawks bet ride because defense wins championships and the public is all over the Patriots.
Let it ride!

i think you on the wrong side and id still let it ride.. you getting +550 on a pick'em gm. everyone in here saying to hedge would rebet most the money anyway and where you gonna get better line value than that?

[swag1982]

Y not hedge 1 and roll the dice with the other appease ur bill paying side and the gambler in u at the same time hedge the big let the small ride but that's just what I would do any way BOL whatever ur decision

[Dr.Gonzo]

I have 2 futures bets on the Hawks to win, one made in June was 500 to win 2750 and the other was made during the preseason when they destroyed the Bears at 200 to win 900. The Hawks fan in me says swing for the fences and go for it, the practical, bill paying side of me says take a nice guaranteed payday.

A compromise: $1400 hedge on the ML

Pats = $700 profit
Hawks = $2250 profit

[2daBank]

Y not hedge 1 and roll the dice with the other appease ur bill paying side and the gambler in u at the same time hedge the big let the small ride but that's just what I would do any way BOL whatever ur decision

i could live with that compromise,, really tho it all depends on his financial situation.

[5918mike]

A compromise: $1400 hedge on the ML

Pats = $700 profit
Hawks = $2250 profit

Kind of what I am thinking but I'm hoping the line on the Pats comes back a bit, I'd love to get the Pats with at least +1.5 but I'm not so sure that will happen.

[Snowball]

I have 2 futures bets on the Hawks to win, one made in June was 500 to win 2750 and the other was made during the preseason when they destroyed the Bears at 200 to win 900. The Hawks fan in me says swing for the fences and go for it, the practical, bill paying side of me says take a nice guaranteed payday.

sounds to me like you got a free $3,650 bet on the Patriots.
Take it. Seattle is not winning this game.