Betting Agaisnt "YOUR TEAM"

Bulldog · 10-09-06, 01:36 PM

I know Im just gonna sound like a "sentimental fool" but dont do it man...
It's gotta be bad karma or wrong in some way...
You can make money on other games...
I never bet against the Braves for ex... and honestly I rarely bet for them to win either... its just not wise imo...

r2d2 · 10-09-06, 01:40 PM

very similiar thoughts bulldog. Thanks for your input. I was thinking instead of teasing it out like that, i could just lay some straight lumber on the donkeys -6 or what till it comes down to -5.5. I hear ya about the karma factor. I am sure that would translate into denver winning by 14, and despite the snow denver rolls 35-21 blowing the under as well!

Bulldog · 10-09-06, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by r2d2

very similiar thoughts bulldog. Thanks for your input. I was thinking instead of teasing it out like that, i could just lay some straight lumber on the donkeys -6 or what till it comes down to -5.5. I hear ya about the karma factor. I am sure that would translate into denver winning by 14, and despite the snow denver rolls 35-21 blowing the under as well!

Its unlikely that will happen, but if it does you'll feel like shit instead of feeling good about your team winning a very tough game...
Im sure others here feel differently though...

Ganchrow · 10-09-06, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by r2d2

OK, so here is my dilema tonight. I have been a HUGE donkeys fan since i was 5 years old. I always "root" for the broncos. I never bet agaisnt them. Tonight i am considering the popular teaser of teasing the ravens to +12 and under to 39.5. If i am taking the ravens in the teaser vs the broncos, the question becomes, AM I BETTING AGAISNT MY TEAM? Or I am taking the broncos to win by 11 or less, and therefore trying to make money on the game, while still rooting for my team? Very similar to if "a tree falls in the middle of the woods, and no one is there to hear it, did it actually fall?" Thoughts are welcome from others than have been in this dilema.

You need to ask yourself why you're betting on sports in the first place.

If you're betting to increase your enjoyment of the games you watch, then I'd certainly suggest you avoid betting against "your team".

If, however, you're placing value bets as part of a rigorous and disciplined positive expectancy process, then I'd strongly recommend against even allowing yourself the luxury of having any favorite teams.

r2d2 · 10-09-06, 01:50 PM

ganchrow, thx for the input. That is the perspective that describes my point of view. The "smart" play, i.e. the "money making" play to me seems like the ravens +12 and under 39.5. I unforunately do have fav teams though.

sjelveh · 10-09-06, 01:53 PM

i dont think i could ever bet against the titans

durito · 10-09-06, 02:14 PM

I will bet against the Broncos if there is value on the other side. I've bet against Colorado (buffs) twice this year and won both.

I am still rooting for them to win, but I am placing bets with the intention of winning money. If the other side is the right play, so be it.

r2d2 · 10-09-06, 02:24 PM

Durito, what is your thoughts on tonight's game in Denver? The spread jumping from -4 to -6 is interesting to me. What is your take on the outcome of the game and the total? Insight is appreciated as always. Best of luck to everyone tonight, and GO BRONCOS!!!

Rezzy · 10-09-06, 02:30 PM

If your team isnt going to win take the money and be happy somthing good came out of a bad thing....

r2d2 · 10-09-06, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Rezzy

If your team isnt going to win take the money and be happy somthing good came out of a bad thing....

Love the thoughts/input coming out of this thread. Some of the answers are spot on. Keep it up.

durito · 10-09-06, 02:37 PM

I think we win tonight, but I wouldn't lay the points. I think the game comes down to a field goal.

McBa1n · 10-09-06, 02:42 PM

To be honest, when your team is good and you KNOW they will lose or lose with the spread, it's hard. I never bet Green Bay games when they were a playoff team.... Even when I knew I'd win. I just couldn't do it.
When your team is bad, however, like GB is for me, now - I bet against them over 1/2 the time. Yesterday, GB had a chance to bury me with my action - but a chance to win with the ball instead the 15 with 30 seconds to go (and at worst a chance to tie). When Favre fumbled it, I almost lost my shit. I never felt so low as a Packer fan in my life. Seeing Brett fail in the 2 minute drill is DEVASTATING.

That said, though - the fact StLouis covering teaser points and the ML spread won me quite a bit of money and it eased my pain somewhat... My heart is still broken, though.
I feel better, though, that I got something out of their loss... Last year I was in full-on depression until I started fading GB. Once I started fading them, I felt a LOT better.... I probably will keep fading them for the next decade, until I they become competitive again. It's going to take a LONG time. I still love that team as much as I can love something - but I'll take what I can get to numb the pain. There's no worse feeling than supporting a crappy NFL team week in/week out and the constant depression when you become emotionally tied to them, and all they do is break your heart.

Thank god for betting.:>

Jay Edgar · 10-09-06, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by McBa1n

There's no worse feeling than supporting a crappy NFL team week in/week out and the constant depression when you become emotionally tied to them, and all they do is break your heart.

Dead on, and I think it explains why people bet sports and why the public supports (and shuns) the teams it does.

Betting shifts the focus of your fandom from those lovable hometown losers to (1) yourself and (2) that prettier team down the street that you want to be associated with.

Razz · 10-09-06, 03:43 PM

Just put the Broncos in the teaser. Let me preface this by saying at the beginning of the season I predicted the Ravens going to the Super Bowl. Still, I think there is a much better chance they lose by 13+ than that they win outright.

Baltimore is 4-0, but has played teams with a combined record of 4-13. Denver is 2-1, but has played teams with a combined record of 10-4.
The Ravens actually haven't been as impressive as some seem to believe, as they have played only one good team. Baltimore's win over SD last week was a fluke, the result of Marty's poor coaching, and McNair's numbers are terrible.
Denver has won 11 in a row at home, and has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL under any circumstance, let alone a night game in extreme weather.
Denver has played three teams, and all are averaging over 20 points per game. Yet, Denver has only given up 1 touchdown all season.
Ravens defense is good enough to keep this one low-scoring and close, but I believe it is highly unlikely Baltimore moves to 5-0. Broncos & under is the correct teaser, IMO.

rta21 · 10-09-06, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by r2d2

OK, so here is my dilema tonight. I have been a HUGE donkeys fan since i was 5 years old. I always "root" for the broncos. I never bet agaisnt them. Tonight i am considering the popular teaser of teasing the ravens to +12 and under to 39.5. If i am taking the ravens in the teaser vs the broncos, the question becomes, AM I BETTING AGAISNT MY TEAM? Or I am taking the broncos to win by 11 or less, and therefore trying to make money on the game, while still rooting for my team? Very similar to if "a tree falls in the middle of the woods, and no one is there to hear it, did it actually fall?" Thoughts are welcome from others than have been in this dilema.

my 2 teams are the bucs and the gators and every week i bet against both of them for a few reasons 1 its a catch 22 if my team wins then i dont feel "AS" bad about losing money on the other hand if my team loses atleast i made money to take away the pain. another reason its doing ok for me is the bucs always lose and the gators have'nt covered every spread. just my 2 cents

ivyconniver · 10-09-06, 03:56 PM

I'd stay away from betting for or against them. emotional plays aren't a good idea when it comes down to how big your wallet is.

r2d2 · 10-09-06, 04:07 PM

thinking about taking razz's lead here. think i am going for a small play on the

broncos +.5
under 39

have fun everyone. GO BRONCOS!

Jay Edgar · 10-09-06, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by Razz

Just put the Broncos in the teaser. Let me preface this by saying at the beginning of the season I predicted the Ravens going to the Super Bowl. Still, I think there is a much better chance they lose by 13+ than that they win outright.

Razz, glad you're still in the neighborhood!

Solid analysis. Agreed that this is far from the perfect spot for BAL, and that DEN @ pick may ultimately be less risky than BAL @ +13, as prime time home teams never need all that much to get rolling, it seems.

But I just can't turn away from a Super Bowl contender at +6 in a 33-point game. If that atypical NE performance hadn't happened with DEN in the building, this line would be very different. Even there, Broncs 'exploded' for all of 17 pts.

rob · 10-09-06, 04:37 PM

I've never had a problem betting against my favorite team...Da Bears!...been a fan for over 40 years. I have my systems and stick with them no matter what they play is.
I look at it as a win-win situation. Usually I win my bet or the Bears win. Kind of like the half-full, half-empty glass deal.
On the other hand, if I bet on the Bears as a dog and they don't cover...

.

bigboydan · 10-09-06, 04:43 PM

This is the exact reason why I don't have a favorite team.

You can't have anything distraction at all what so ever when your wagering on sporting event. I think Ganchrow said it best above though. You gotta remember why your gambling. Be objectionable, and look for value whenever it's there period.

Bulldog · 10-09-06, 04:59 PM

Im not buying it...
Some of you make it seem like if you're not betting against your own team or you happen to be a sports fan then you're not a "true betting pro"...
Of course you can have a favorite team and not bet against it and yet be a good capper, and have your system and stick to it and be succesful...
Trying to make some $$ doesnt mean you cant just sit back, grab a beer, relax, watch a game, and root for your team...

McBa1n · 10-09-06, 06:42 PM

I don't care about the $ when I bet GB.
If anything, being such a HUGE fan for so long has given me a tremendous edge.
It's not only the team I love, but the team I know 'best'. If I feel emotion in say... A big rivalry game, I just can't touch it.
Emotion and betting will kill you. Being a knowledgeable fan that can detach while you put down your money is just being smart... IMO.
Easier said than done, though.
If you aren't sure how to play it - then you're better off just enjoying watching your team.

primo_skillz · 10-09-06, 06:44 PM

I find no enjoyment in games that I am not betting on, besides watching my Eagles play where I dont have any action on it.

r2d2 · 10-10-06, 10:09 AM

worked like a charm razz. took a 2 unit teaser with broncos +.5 and the under 39!!!

Originally posted by Razz

Just put the Broncos in the teaser. Let me preface this by saying at the beginning of the season I predicted the Ravens going to the Super Bowl. Still, I think there is a much better chance they lose by 13+ than that they win outright.

Baltimore is 4-0, but has played teams with a combined record of 4-13. Denver is 2-1, but has played teams with a combined record of 10-4.
The Ravens actually haven't been as impressive as some seem to believe, as they have played only one good team. Baltimore's win over SD last week was a fluke, the result of Marty's poor coaching, and McNair's numbers are terrible.
Denver has won 11 in a row at home, and has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL under any circumstance, let alone a night game in extreme weather.
Denver has played three teams, and all are averaging over 20 points per game. Yet, Denver has only given up 1 touchdown all season.
Ravens defense is good enough to keep this one low-scoring and close, but I believe it is highly unlikely Baltimore moves to 5-0. Broncos & under is the correct teaser, IMO.

nosuzieno · 10-10-06, 11:35 AM

As a Bears backer, I like to bet on other NFC north teams. Always worth a unit to see Pack lose or to be compensated for their rare victories in the alternative

Bulldog · 10-10-06, 11:54 AM

Nice call there R2D2 and Razz...
I placed a really small teaser with Ravens and the Under and won it too..
I almost never do that since I dont bet on totals but it worked out...

Dark Horse · 10-10-06, 03:37 PM

Favorite NBA team: PHX Suns. Bet on and against them all the time. Just playing the numbers.

So many games in basketball that I think it helps to have one or a few favorite teams. Allows you to get deeper into their habits.

onlooker · 10-10-06, 08:41 PM

Being a homer, wont get you very far in this bizz.

I have some favorite teams, but I wont think twice about betting against them if I find the value on the other side of the game. And there is no way in hell Im just going to bet on my favorite team, just for the hell of it.

Tommy Nosepicks · 10-11-06, 06:45 AM

Not saying one way or the other is "wrong" but I definately will pick against my favorites from time to time. Being a fan makes you know the team better and you can use this advantage in different ways. Whether or not I have money going against my team I'll still root for them to win. It's like paying for insurance against losses.