1st stage of my NFL model is complete - I will post it's picks and progressions here.

[PutTogether]

I recently completed a model that can chew through stats through week 7 of the season. I will be running match ups through it to determine my own line differential. I will post the plays here, as well as my predicted differential in points scored. Initial bench mark for me to make something a 'play' will be that an available betting line differs from what I think the line should be by 2.5 points or more.

I will also periodically post adjustments to the model, and why I decided to weight certain things differently as the model progresses. Plays posted will all be flat bet units of 1, unless a line looks seriously off. A UNIT will be $100, because I hate keeping track of 'units.' We will RISK $100 + any applicable juice in order to WIN $100, though occasionally we will risk $100 even on a money line bet on a dog. Plays will be posted in the following format:

GAME: Home Team / Road Team

Predited Point Differential (or PPD): Team - predicted points
Easily available betting line: X

Selection: Team @+ or - Xpts (juice) (Risk $XXX to win $100)

I will sometimes, but not always post a small write up or explanation of why I'm confident.

Results so far: Win/Loss/Tie for a total gain or loss of $XXXX

If it looks confusing, see the post below for my first ACTUAL pick. I WILL NEVER EDIT THE POSTS THAT CONTAIN PICKS!

[PutTogether]

Game: San Diego / Denver
PPD: I predict that Denver will win this game by 3,4,5, or 6 points.
Easily available line: 8.5 available at bookmaker.
Pick: San Diego +8.5 @-110 (Risking $110 to win $100)

My model actually predicts Denver to win this game by 2 pts. I'm not comfortable with 2, as we all probably know the Peyton Manning Bronco's games are VERY rarely decided by less than 6. Either way, I believe +8.5 provides enough margin of safety from my prediction to place a bet.

If you're following me (and I don't know why you would, I'm just some guy you've never met before on the internet) I wish you the best of luck.

[GSoro]

I recently completed a model that can chew through stats through week 7 of the season. I will be running match ups through it to determine my own line differential. I will post the plays here, as well as my predicted differential in points scored. Initial bench mark for me to make something a 'play' will be that an available betting line differs from what I think the line should be by 2.5 points or more.

I will also periodically post adjustments to the model, and why I decided to weight certain things differently as the model progresses. Plays posted will all be flat bet units of 1, unless a line looks seriously off. A UNIT will be $100, because I hate keeping track of 'units.' We will RISK $100 + any applicable juice in order to WIN $100, though occasionally we will risk $100 even on a money line bet on a dog. Plays will be posted in the following format:

GAME: Home Team / Road Team

Predited Point Differential (or PPD): Team - predicted points
Easily available betting line: X

Selection: Team @+ or - Xpts (juice) (Risk $XXX to win $100)

I will sometimes, but not always post a small write up or explanation of why I'm confident.

Results so far: Win/Loss/Tie for a total gain or loss of $XXXX

If it looks confusing, see the post below for my first ACTUAL pick. I WILL NEVER EDIT THE POSTS THAT CONTAIN PICKS!

I have a model too but I'm not a great mathematician it's probably much more simple than yours lol. But I have the Broncos winning by 6 as well. Do youmind sharing your model or at least a few ideas/factors that you input into your model? We can trade ideas. pm me if interested, thanks. and good luck

[PutTogether]

Result: Loss of $110

Final Score: Denver 35, San Diego 21.

Total so far: Win: 0 Loss: 1 Push: 0

Win rate: 0%

Game: San Diego / Denver
PPD: I predict that Denver will win this game by 3,4,5, or 6 points.
Easily available line: 8.5 available at bookmaker.
Pick: San Diego +8.5 @-110 (Risking $110 to win $100)

My model actually predicts Denver to win this game by 2 pts. I'm not comfortable with 2, as we all probably know the Peyton Manning Bronco's games are VERY rarely decided by less than 6. Either way, I believe +8.5 provides enough margin of safety from my prediction to place a bet.

[PutTogether]

Game: Seattle / Carolina
PPD: I predict that Seattle will win this game by 9-10points.
Easily available line: 5 available everywhere.
Pick: Seattle -5 @-110 (Risking $110 to win $100)

I predict that Seattle's rushing game picks up against a Panther's D that is still getting more credit than it deserves. Seattle has had more time to 'get over' the Harvin trade, and will be highly motivated to get back on track. They should find it impossible to think of themselves as a .500 team. Newton might be looking better, but isn't up to facing Seattle's defense.

[THam12]

Game: Seattle / Carolina
PPD: I predict that Seattle will win this game by 9-10points.
Easily available line: 5 available everywhere.
Pick: Seattle -5 @-110 (Risking $110 to win $100)

I predict that Seattle's rushing game picks up against a Panther's D that is still getting more credit than it deserves. Seattle has had more time to 'get over' the Harvin trade, and will be highly motivated to get back on track. They should find it impossible to think of themselves as a .500 team. Newton might be looking better, but isn't up to facing Seattle's defense.

With the model, I believe a write up of "highly motivated" should not b be necessary.... shouldn't your math speak for itself?

[PutTogether]

Game: Houston / Tennessee
PPD: My math model shows Houston winning by 4 pts, but see below for more reasons I like this game
Easily available line: 3.5 available everywhere.
Pick: Houston -3.5 @-110 (Risking $110 to win $100)

I wish I would have thought about this game more before it crossed the three. In fairness, I'm sticking with the line available while I type this. My math thinks Houston wins by 4, but I'm counting on Houston being fired up after dominating Pittsburgh for 55 minutes last week and suffering a loss from an incredibly lucky 3 minutes of play. The Titans will be on their third QB, and barring something huge coming from Walker, Wright and Hunter coalescing with Mettenberger - should continue to struggle offensively beyond what math is showing. (Math depends on results that Mettenberger didn't have anything to do with)

Houston still ostensibly has a chance in the AFC south, and Tennessee simply doesn't.

No one feels good betting on Fitzpatrick, but Houston has other offensive weapons that Tennessee just does not.

[PutTogether]

With the model, I believe a write up of "highly motivated" should not b be necessary.... shouldn't your math speak for itself?

My math predicts a 9 point margin of victory - 4 points more than the available line. I do still believe that Seattle's motivation provides an extra margin of safety.

I wouldn't bet AGAINST my own math, but don't mind looking for reasons to go a bit beyond it.

[PutTogether]

Result: Loss
Final Score: Seattle 13 Carolina 9
Predicted a 9 point win, only got a 4 point win on a 5 point line.

Results So far: Win: 0 Loss 2 -$220

Winrate 0$

Game: Seattle / Carolina
PPD: I predict that Seattle will win this game by 9-10points.
Easily available line: 5 available everywhere.
Pick: Seattle -5 @-110 (Risking $110 to win $100)

I predict that Seattle's rushing game picks up against a Panther's D that is still getting more credit than it deserves. Seattle has had more time to 'get over' the Harvin trade, and will be highly motivated to get back on track. They should find it impossible to think of themselves as a .500 team. Newton might be looking better, but isn't up to facing Seattle's defense.

[PutTogether]

Result: Win
Final Score Houston 30 Tennesse 16

Predicted 4 pt win got a 14pt win

Results so far: Win: 1 Loss: 2 -$120

Winrate: 33%

Game: Houston / Tennessee
PPD: My math model shows Houston winning by 4 pts, but see below for more reasons I like this game
Easily available line: 3.5 available everywhere.
Pick: Houston -3.5 @-110 (Risking $110 to win $100)

I wish I would have thought about this game more before it crossed the three. In fairness, I'm sticking with the line available while I type this. My math thinks Houston wins by 4, but I'm counting on Houston being fired up after dominating Pittsburgh for 55 minutes last week and suffering a loss from an incredibly lucky 3 minutes of play. The Titans will be on their third QB, and barring something huge coming from Walker, Wright and Hunter coalescing with Mettenberger - should continue to struggle offensively beyond what math is showing. (Math depends on results that Mettenberger didn't have anything to do with)

Houston still ostensibly has a chance in the AFC south, and Tennessee simply doesn't.

No one feels good betting on Fitzpatrick, but Houston has other offensive weapons that Tennessee just does not.

[PutTogether]

Game: New Orleans / Carolina
PPD: Every which way I run it this game comes up as a pick.
Easily available line: 3 available everywhere.
Pick: Carolina +3 @EV (Risking $100 to win $100)

My math says this game is a dead even pick. In that case, I think I have to take a home team getting a field goal and even money against a road team on a very short week.