Colts @ Steelers....Train kept a rolling all Sunday long

[Fred The Hammer]

Colts -3 (+100)

Don't wait....same thing I said about Bengals/Colts. Indy is 6-1 ATS and one of the top 3-4 teams in football. Vontae Davis is one of the top 3-4 CBs in football and he'll shadow Antonio Brown. The Colts are firing on all cylinders and Pittsburgh is a team in heavy transition. Don't let 4-3 fool you....they got pretty lucky last night when Foster fumbled at his own 3 yd line. That turned the whole game around. Reggie Wayne could miss the game but he's not a big factor anymore for the Colts. Luck is spreading it around all over the place and their O-line is healthy and making holes in the running game too. The Colts just held Cincinnati to 47 yards thru 3 quarters. 47 yards!! Indy's secondary is one of the best in the NFL and that allows them to blitz like crazy and get away with it. The Colts only real weakness right now is they don't have much deep speed besides TY Hilton and he's pretty small but other than that this is a SB type team.

[lukey016]

Nice write up & I love this bet aswell. I Took the colts -2.5 but they should win fairly easily tbh!

[Eddy Munny]

I don't necessarily disagree, but I do think the Steelers will score. I'm not convinced that the Colts have an elite level defense by any means. Maybe they shut down the Bungles, but that was without Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, and AJ Green... and it was in Indy. It's a tough game to call because it's in Pitt and the Colts are laying three. Like I said, I think the Steelers can move the ball on this defense and may sense the urgency to do so right out of the gate. Given this, the line seems about right.

[Fred The Hammer]

I don't necessarily disagree, but I do think the Steelers will score. I'm not convinced that the Colts have an elite level defense by any means. Maybe they shut down the Bungles, but that was without Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, and AJ Green... and it was in Indy. It's a tough game to call because it's in Pitt and the Colts are laying three. Like I said, I think the Steelers can move the ball on this defense and may sense the urgency to do so right out of the gate. Given this, the line seems about right.

I wouldn't say the Colts are great defensively but they do lead the NFL in lowest 3rd down% and the Colts lead the NFL in time of possession which keeps the D fresh

[RickyRoma]

i feel like this might be a tough game for indiana even tho the steelers are very fortunate to win on monday with the texans shooting themselves in the foot so many times yesterday. colts is def the right lean, but i be careful, maybe use in a teaser.

[SmittyZ28]

Colts only allowed 26% conversion on 3rd down, which is top in the NFL. Not saying they an Elite level D, but that is a very impressive stat against a Pitt team converting right around 40% which is average/slightly below in the league

[Eddy Munny]

Third down percentage is directly correlated with the distance needed to convert. Pittsburgh has a formidable ground attack with LeVeon Bell doing damage by air or by land, meaning possibly fewer third and long situations... just saying.

[SmittyZ28]

Third down percentage is directly correlated with the distance needed to convert. Pittsburgh has a formidable ground attack with LeVeon Bell doing damage by air or by land, meaning possibly fewer third and long situations... just saying.

Total valid point, which is also true of Indy most likely forcing 3rd and long situations and not a ton of 3rd and 2's etc. Will be an interesting match up to watch.

[RavensFan2k3]

Third down percentage is directly correlated with the distance needed to convert. Pittsburgh has a formidable ground attack with LeVeon Bell doing damage by air or by land, meaning possibly fewer third and long situations... just saying.

But if that were the case, they wouldnt be below average at converting 3rd downs right?

[Eddy Munny]

But if that were the case, they wouldnt be below average at converting 3rd downs right?

Well, possibly. But many a Colts opponent have fell behind straight from the jump and were forced to pass, which played right into the hands of the Colts defense, who have a decent rush. If the Steelers are aggressive right out of the gate, knowing their defense is not going to shut down Luck, I think they can find yards against Indy's defense and stay ahead of the chains.

Obviously, the Colts are the better team at this juncture. But you have to believe that Pittsburgh is going to be jacked up for this game... and every week we see head-scratching type scores and wonder "how the hell did that happen?" Well, I'm just trying to paint a scenario where the Steelers could possibly hang around for four quarters and spring the upset. I could fall in line with everyone and declare the Colts the "lock of the century" but that really doesn't do much to promote critical thinking.

[RavensFan2k3]

Well, possibly. But many a Colts opponent have fell behind straight from the jump and were forced to pass, which played right into the hands of the Colts defense, who have a decent rush. If the Steelers are aggressive right out of the gate, knowing their defense is not going to shut down Luck, I think they can find yards against Indy's defense and stay ahead of the chains.

Obviously, the Colts are the better team at this juncture. But you have to believe that Pittsburgh is going to be jacked up for this game... and every week we see head-scratching type scores and wonder "how the hell did that happen?" Well, I'm just trying to paint a scenario where the Steelers could possibly hang around for four quarters and spring the upset. I could fall in line with everyone and declare the Colts the "lock of the century" but that really doesn't do much to promote critical thinking.

And I appreciate your critical thinking, seems we dont get much of that anymore

[loodachris99]

I feel like it's on a weekly basis that my dad and I discuss what we like on Sunday's n we both say "well I like the colts but the lines so low I feel it may be a trap" and then every week they end up easily covering ... Happened last week... Now I know they're giving points on the road but I'll lay the three and bank on the colts to keep rolling over a mediocre at best steelers team

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Colts are a covering machine and, at the very least, a Top 5 team. Right with you on -3 and big.

[Riceboi]

Fred will you be playing any props for TNF and sunday?

[TheKLB]

I don't necessarily disagree, but I do think the Steelers will score. I'm not convinced that the Colts have an elite level defense by any means. Maybe they shut down the Bungles, but that was without Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, and AJ Green... and it was in Indy. It's a tough game to call because it's in Pitt and the Colts are laying three. Like I said, I think the Steelers can move the ball on this defense and may sense the urgency to do so right out of the gate. Given this, the line seems about right.

Top 4 PPG allowed and Top 3 YPG allowed... and thats with playing DEN, PHI, HOU, and shutting out the Bengals who where scoring 26.8 PPG coming into the game

[Fred The Hammer]

Well, possibly. But many a Colts opponent have fell behind straight from the jump and were forced to pass, which played right into the hands of the Colts defense, who have a decent rush. If the Steelers are aggressive right out of the gate, knowing their defense is not going to shut down Luck, I think they can find yards against Indy's defense and stay ahead of the chains.

Obviously, the Colts are the better team at this juncture. But you have to believe that Pittsburgh is going to be jacked up for this game... and every week we see head-scratching type scores and wonder "how the hell did that happen?" Well, I'm just trying to paint a scenario where the Steelers could possibly hang around for four quarters and spring the upset. I could fall in line with everyone and declare the Colts the "lock of the century" but that really doesn't do much to promote critical thinking.

Thanks....its always good to have critical thinking! Bell and Antonio Brown are as good as it gets and Pitt could def pull it off but I just like the way Indy looks right now. Indy is mixing and matching with all their receivers....the 2 tight ends and the running backs and Luck is hitting them all. Their O-line is getting healthy and Luck had all day most of the time vs Cincy. Their D just got their leading tackler Freeman 2 weeks ago and the German kid Werner from Fla State is starting to look like Jared Allen in his prime. Its just a weekly play for me...not loading up or anything but I'm going to keep riding the Colts til they quit covering.

[Eddy Munny]

Uh Oh!!!!!

Colts are flesh and blood after all.

[Fred The Hammer]

Uh Oh!!!!!

Colts are flesh and blood after all.

I go 5-1 props AGAIN.....and this is the thread that gets hit. This one isn't over but its the NFL and that's why single plays shouldn't get overplayed. I think nearly everyone would say Cincy has better personnel than the Steelers overall but Bengals get shutout while Pitt gets 35 in the 1st half. Crazy???