No -11 & cin -2

[WWCD]

I am going big on these 2 games.

CIN -2

Pats have been exposed - They aren't fixing this in a week. Bengals coming off a BYE - 60% chance to cover.
Pats just lost big on MNF - 70% chance they do not cover.

*Road favorites coming off a BYE is 75% ATS for the last decade.


NO -11

Mike Evans is out.
Saints at home.

*3rd straight road game for TB*
I always circle these and bet them. They hit at about 70% of the time. I have pushed a few times over the years, but 70% is a must play for me EVERY SEASON.


I never claim a lock but in my opinion..
Play these 2 with the same amount on each and you break even minus juice, or win big.

[POOLSIDE]

The way the Saints are playing, I couldn't take them as double digit favorites over anyone. Tampa looks waaaay better with Glennon, they've got McCoy and Doug Martin back, and they look like they're starting to believe they can win football games.

Saints ts haven't looked good on either side of the ball for three weeks now, at home or on the road.

[WWCD]

TB@PIT -7.5
2nd road game coming off a road loss 60% ATS

[POOLSIDE]

Yeah I hear you. I had Tampa (wish I had the money line) but this just seems like a stretch. They're hardly even the same team they were two weeks ago. So many key players didn't play in that game. Plus, New Orleans looks washed up. They had a solid offensive performance week one at Atlanta, but since then the offense has been terrible. The defense has been consistently terrible the whole time.

My stance is less about Tampa being good enough to hang blah blah, and more about New Orleans and whether or not they are any good. This seems like one of those "they're due" lines, sort of like New England being favored today after hardly beating the Raiders (worst team in the league by a long shot?) at home.

[matt1216]

Saints D Is horse shit.

[PickoMoff]

Anything below -6pts Cincy will cover easy!
Saints pass rush is trash!

[WWCD]

@Poolside

Some people were thinking the exact same thing last week when TB went to ATL. I stated that ATL would figure things out and get a couple sacks and they did. I think the Saints will figure this out and make a statement here.