NFL Picks

PhilTheTHRILL · 09-11-14, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by Chcbleachers

I've learned over the years that predicting football games is virtually impossible....that being said, my buddy and I noticed a trend with his company's particular pool ATS over the last few years: teams that are chosen by 80%+ of the entrants lose about 2 out of 3 games ATS, while teams chosen by 70%-79% lose about 3 out of 5 times.

Using this method, we went 3-0 on the 80% games last week (chose Buffalo, TN, and Atlanta) and 2-1 on the 70% games. Tonight, 80% had Pittsburgh, so we went with Baltimore. Note, I'm a Bears fan, so wagering against them was tough on Sunday...

Anyway, I will post what the pool is showing us before kickoff on Sunday for everyone's consumption. GLTA

Innnnnnnnnteresting.

Looking forward to seeing it. However, this seems to me like its just fading the public. What type of place does your friend work at?

Chcbleachers · 09-15-14, 11:00 PM

Not sure if the players in this pool are any worse than the general public's performance that you can find on the betting trends section of a lot of sites, yet this week they picked mostly losers, again. He works at a finance consulting firm (though I suspect that many of the players are outside of that field.) You are correct though - this is certainly 'fading the public' as you stated.

Wish I had posted these earlier so people could have taken them, yet 2 kids under 3 years of age suck the time out of you...next week I won't miss.

The plays that were 80%+ (so we took the teams in the parentheses) - all W's

NO Saints (Cleveland Browns)
Seattle (San Diego Chargers)
Indianapolis (Philadelphia) - note, this was a 58/42 split over the weekend yet players can flip their selections up through game time and everyone went with Indy. Missed the large bet before kickoff yet got an in-game line of +3' when they were down 7-3 so it was a moot point.

The 70%:

New England (Minnesota) - LOSS (some passed on this though due to AP being a child beating scumbag and the line moving with his suspension)
Tampa Bay (STL)
Detroit (Carolina)
Pittsburgh (Baltimore)
SF (Bears) - still don't understand how the Bears won this game...
Arizona (Giants) - LOSS (wow, the Giants SUCK....so that means I'll probably have to bet them again next week)

So for the last 2 weeks, going opposite the 80% picks are 6-0 and the 70%+ ones are 6-3. Too bad I hedged out of both the Cleveland and SD Games to guarantee cash with in-game lines....never seems to work in the end.

recon1 · 09-16-14, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by Chcbleachers

I've learned over the years that predicting football games is virtually impossible....that being said, my buddy and I noticed a trend with his company's particular pool ATS over the last few years: teams that are chosen by 80%+ of the entrants lose about 2 out of 3 games ATS, while teams chosen by 70%-79% lose about 3 out of 5 times.

Using this method, we went 3-0 on the 80% games last week (chose Buffalo, TN, and Atlanta) and 2-1 on the 70% games. Tonight, 80% had Pittsburgh, so we went with Baltimore. Note, I'm a Bears fan, so wagering against them was tough on Sunday...

Anyway, I will post what the pool is showing us before kickoff on Sunday for everyone's consumption. GLTA

ding, ding ding,You are onto something. now with a healthy roll take this philosophy to Vegas and you'll get your ass thrown out. Don't dare bet on the books money side. for next week be cautious because the public has been rapped first 2 weeks. They may back off, just don't know.

Chcbleachers · 09-18-14, 10:18 AM

Pool result - tonight

77% of the players in the pool took Atlanta -6.5 tonight (23% took Tampa)....that being said, I bet TB and bought it up to 7.

I think that TB is going to get smoked tonight, so that is a good sign and all the more reason to bet it.

More results will be posted on Friday.