My 2014 NFL Regular Season and Playoff plays

Pattycakes0909 · 09-08-14, 05:46 AM

No plays for this evening, so after week one, 4-1-1 for a +2.306 Units.

First play of week 2 - Thursday night, more to come later in the week

1) Steelers +3.5 (*bought 0.5 points, this is key*) @ -125 : 1.0 Units

Pattycakes0909 · 09-08-14, 09:29 PM

2) 4 Team 10 Point Teaser : Steelers +12.5, Vikings +13.5, Packers +1.5, Broncos -3 @ -120 : 1.2 Units - There is really no need for an explanation for this bet, but in case someone needed it, Steelers, and Ravens always play each other within a field goal, so to give the Steelers this many points after the Ray Rice debacle this week is way too much (I could see the Steelers stealing this one late). As for the Vikings, they are severely underrated this year on both sides of the ball, and although they are a young team who are learning to play together on both sides of the ball, they will be competitive at home this year at TCF Stadium at 13.5 is way too much. The Packers will come out motivated at home after an embarrassing opening game, and although Geno Smith looked alright in week 1, it is a lot to ask a 2nd year QB to come into Lambeau and get a win. Lastly, Peyton will be dominate at home against a weaker Chiefs D, and only a 3 point cover should be no problem.

More to come through out the week. BOL to all.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-09-14, 05:10 PM

Will have more plays throughout the week, but a ton of line movement in the last 12 hours....need to see how this continues over the next 24 hours.

Also would like to note that the goal of this thread will be to exceed a winning margin of 57.5%, (2013 - 56.85%)

Pattycakes0909 · 09-11-14, 07:18 AM

*EDIT* - Play #2 for week 2 was at +120, not -120 - my mistake on the typo

Pattycakes0909 · 09-11-14, 07:26 AM

3)2 Team 7 Point Teaser - Rams +13 & Raiders +10 @ -110 : 0.75 Units - Although the Rams got blown out at home last week, I expect the Vikings to be a better team than people expected this year, so I do not count that as much against the Rams as most. In addition, Josh McCown did nothing in week 1 to show me he is a starter, so to have him beat another team by 2 touchdown's with a mediocre Bucs defense, I like my chances. In addition, 68% of the public is on the Bucs to cover at -6, so if I can go against the public and get 7 points I don't hate that. Next, the Raiders at home should not be beat by Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Clouwney-less Texans, but to spot them 10 points is quite a lot. In addition, 73% of the public is on the Texans at -3 on the road....overreaction to week 1 in my opinion. BOL

slacker00 · 09-11-14, 07:55 AM

Buying points is just bleeding money. If you need extra points, consider a teaser or ML instead of buying points.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-11-14, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by slacker00

Buying points is just bleeding money. If you need extra points, consider a teaser or ML instead of buying points.

Was smart in the Broncos game week 1. ...I agree with you in most circumstances, but sometimes it can be appropriate. BOL

Pattycakes0909 · 09-14-14, 08:05 AM

Week 2, Play #4

4) Browns +7 @ -108 : 1.0 Units - After a close game with the Steelers last week, I expect the Browns to be competitive this week at home. The Saints will be motivated after a lost last week as well, but have always struggled playing up north, and 7 points is too much in my opinion to spot the Browns. Also, 83% of the public is on the Saints, which history has proven is not favorable over time.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-14-14, 08:09 AM

5) Vikings +6 @ -110 : 0.90 Units - Although AP will be out this week, I will say it again. I think the Vikings are drastically underrated this year, and although AP is a big part of the team, Patterson will step up among other young players, and I expect the Vikings to keep it close, and maybe even squeak out a win.

6) Vikings ML @ +195 : 0.25 Units - Worth a small play

Pattycakes0909 · 09-14-14, 08:14 AM

7) Chargers +6 @ -110 : 0.65 Units - Not as confident as the other plays, but also expect the Chargers to keep this close.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-14-14, 08:16 AM

8) 2 Team 7 Point Teaser - Broncos -5.5 and Packers -1 @ -110 : 0.85 Units

Pattycakes0909 · 09-14-14, 08:18 AM

Updated Record: 4-3-1 for a +0.106 Units, with play #s 3-8 open for week 2

slacker00 · 09-14-14, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Pattycakes0909

Was smart in the Broncos game week 1. ...I agree with you in most circumstances, but sometimes it can be appropriate. BOL

Not really. You were able to turn a loss into a push and paid a premium to do it. The tease & ML won.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-14-14, 10:20 AM

ML at -300 or more on Peyton week 1 won in hindsight, but you payed a ton in vig for that. My play of buying that half point was key to avoid a loss like the majority of the public who took them at -7.5 or -8. I don't recommend buying points all the time, just off of key numbers like that game. I assume we will agree to disagree on this. BOL

Pattycakes0909 · 09-14-14, 10:20 PM

May have a play tomorrow evening, but updated record of 7-6-1 for a +0.706 Units as of this point.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-16-14, 06:58 AM

Week 3 -

1) 2 Team, 6.5 point teaser - Browns +7.5 and Browns/Ravens under 49 : 0.90 Units - Expect AFC North rivals to keep it close in Cleveland and stay well below the total here. Ton of public opening money on Ravens (79%) after a great home performance in week 2, but disagree with the public, and think Cleveland has a shot to win this.

slacker00 · 09-16-14, 07:08 AM

Originally posted by Pattycakes0909

ML at -300 or more on Peyton week 1 won in hindsight, but you payed a ton in vig for that. My play of buying that half point was key to avoid a loss like the majority of the public who took them at -7.5 or -8. I don't recommend buying points all the time, just off of key numbers like that game. I assume we will agree to disagree on this. BOL

You bragged about buying a half point using hindsight on that game. You aren't being consistent in your reasoning.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-21-14, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

You bragged about buying a half point using hindsight on that game. You aren't being consistent in your reasoning.

Bragging? LOL, I simply stated that it was smart to do in that specific game....not exactly "bragging" by my account, but to each there own....

Pattycakes0909 · 09-21-14, 11:23 AM

2) 2 Team, 7 Point Teaser @ -110 : Steelers +10 and Steelers/Panthers Under 49 – (0.90 Units)

3) 49ers ML @ -170 (1.0 Units)

slacker00 · 09-21-14, 11:45 AM

Originally posted by Pattycakes0909

Bragging? LOL, I simply stated that it was smart to do in that specific game....not exactly "bragging" by my account, but to each there own....

Nitpicking my use of language only evades my point about your inconsistency. Forget I said "brag", why focus on words?

Pattycakes0909 · 09-21-14, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by slacker00

Nitpicking my use of language only evades my point about your inconsistency. Forget I said "brag", why focus on words?

I usually sit back and laugh at the people who have these pointless arguments on sbr, so to save any bit of integrity, I am going to wave the white flag on this one and just let you have it. I'll stop responding on this little thing we have going on here. Best of luck on your picks, and I am going to limit my energy on this site solely for posting my plays.

slacker00 · 09-21-14, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by Pattycakes0909

I usually sit back and laugh at the people who have these pointless arguments on sbr, so to save any bit of integrity, I am going to wave the white flag on this one and just let you have it. I'll stop responding on this little thing we have going on here. Best of luck on your picks, and I am going to limit my energy on this site solely for posting my plays.

Fine. Then we agree that buying points is bad value.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-22-14, 06:02 PM

Updated record: 8-8-1 for a -0.337 Units. Have a small play on the game tonight, then on to week 4.

4) Bears +2 @ -101 : 0.60 Units

Pattycakes0909 · 09-24-14, 05:52 AM

9-8-1 for a +0.257 Units after week 4

1) 2 Team, 6.5 point teaser - Bears +8 and Steelers -1 @ -110 : 1.0 Units - I cannot see the Bears getting beat at home in an NFC north rivalry game by more than a TD (Actually think they should win this game), and as long as the Steelers show up to play Sunday, they are the superior team and should get the win.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-24-14, 06:05 AM

2) 2 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser - Jets +8 and Eagles +12 @ -110 : 0.95 Units - Jets should be motivated at home this week after dropping one on MNF, and to spot them 8 points at home is too many against the Lions who are not as good on the road. The Eagles are 3-0 and although they are going into a tough environment in San Fran, the Eagles strangely play better on the road, and I cannot see them losing by double digits against a 49ers team that have not met expectations through 3 weeks.

Pattycakes0909 · 09-24-14, 06:11 AM

3) Vikings +3 @ -118 : 0.65 Units

4) Vikings ML @ +129 : 0.35 Units

Pattycakes0909 · 09-24-14, 06:17 AM

5) 3 Team ML Parley - Steelers (-340), Colts (-345), Vikings (+129) @ +282 : (0.35 Units)

Pattycakes0909 · 09-25-14, 05:52 PM

6) Redskins -3 @ -105 : 0.40 Units

7) Redskins ML @ -160 : 0.60 Units

Pattycakes0909 · 09-30-14, 05:49 AM

Week 4 record of 3-4-0 for a -0.484 Units, which brings the overall thread record to 12-12-1 for a - 0.227 Units

Pattycakes0909 · 10-05-14, 11:46 AM

Week 5

1) 2 Team 6.5 Point Teaser – Broncos -1.0 and Steelers win @ -110 : 1.0 Units
2) 2 Team 6.5 Point Teaser – Broncos -1.0 and Seahawks -1.0 @ -110 : 1.0 Units
3) 2 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser – Seahawks -1.0 and Steelers win @ -110 : 1.0 Units
4) 3 Team, 10 Point Teaser – Broncos +2.5, Steelers +3.5, and Seahawks +2.5 @ -110 : 1.0 Units
5) Patriots +3 @ -110 : 1.0 Units
6) Eagles -5 @ -105 : 1.0 Units

Pattycakes0909 · 10-07-14, 06:07 AM

6-0-0 for week 5, which brings the overall record to 18-12-1 for a +5.271 Units overall.

Pattycakes0909 · 10-07-14, 06:18 AM

Week 6 -

1) 3 Team, 10 Point Teaser - Vikings +12.5, Steelers +12.5, Broncos +0.5 @ -110 : 1.0 Units
2) 2 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser - Vikings +9.5, Steelers +9.5 @ -110 : 1.0 Units
3) Eagles -2.5 @ -110 : 1.0 Units

More to come as week goes on when more information becomes available.

Pattycakes0909 · 10-08-14, 06:31 AM

This bet in my mind shows why you should have money at many reputable places. Such different line placements from site to site.

Although I am not a fan of Bovada most of the time for placing bets, they occasionally lay an egg and price a line aggressively, and the Texans are currently +3.5, O/U 46.

4) 2 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser - Texans +10 and Over 39.5 @ -120 : 1.0 Units - These teams met in 2012 in Houston where the Texans won 29-17, and in 2013 in Houston where the Colts won 27-24. I cannot see the Texans getting beat by double digits at home, and these teams not getting to 40 pts combined. BOL

Pattycakes0909 · 10-10-14, 04:57 AM

5) 2 Team, 6.5 Point Teaser - Broncos -2.5 and Seahawks -1.5 @ -120 : 1.0 Units - Anytime you can take the Seahawks at home the last 3 seasons for under a field goal, this has been basically automatic, and the Jets are in rough shape while Peyton and the Broncos seem to have found there stride.