2014 Correlation Handicapping System

[ny92mike]

Well Ladies and Gentlemen I’m back not that it warrants a parade by any means, just that I’m really excited for this season to start for two reasons, the adrenaline of crunching the numbers in hopes of a high win percentage against the spread and that my Giants can’t suck two years in a row.

I’ve spent a lot of the offseason making changes to my system in hopes of improving my win percentage against the spread. My back data has been yielding promising results. In back testing my data for the 2013 season my findings are as follows.

Week	Selected	Won	Percentage
Week_02	4	2	50%
Week_03	8	8	100%
Week_04	7	4	57%
Week_05	4	3	75%
Week_06	4	3	75%
Week_07	6	5	83%
Week_08	5	2	40%
Week_09	4	3	75%
Week_10	4	3	75%
Week_11	4	1	25%
Week_12	4	2	50%
Week_13	4	4	100%
Week_14	1	0	0%
Week_15	3	2	67%
Week_16	2	1	50%
Week_17	8	8	100%

While the results look impressive at 71%, I’m not sold on them. There is simply too much variance in win percentage from week to week to know with any certainty that some luck isn’t playing a factor with my calculations which is what I’m currently tooling with at the moment, down to fine tuning this project.
As in the past, I’ll be posting my weekly picks each week with the exception of week 1 as my formula for projecting the winners is based on statistical data. I will however be presenting the picks differently this year. I won’t be projecting the outcome of every single game but just those that the formula deems a higher confidence percentage to beat the spread.

Lets have a great season

[ny92mike]

I obviously won't be betting during the preseason but I am excited to see my Giants kick of the new season come 8 eastern.

Key for the Giants this year is going to be in the trenches. Did they do enough this offseason with their lines. Lost a lot up front in Tuck and Linval Joseph on defense and retooled with offensive line with a lot of name changes.

However, if you're betting good luck to ya.

[ny92mike]

I posted this in the handicappers think cap but because its related to this thread I'd post it here as well, that and I'm bored.

So I’ve been working on this project for a few years with mixed results, this year I started looking at things a bit different. Without divulging my formula its basically ranking each team using weekly stats to determine their grouping (Group 1 = top 4 teams; Group 8 = bottom 4 teams) from there I use a forecast formula to project the scores of future games based on the previous weeks stats. The results vary from week to week with significant drops in percentage wins in weeks 7 and 11. Still working on why it seems to be those two weeks as to why the formula is creating those dips in those weeks as the other weeks typically generate 53% or better.
Below are some color coded charts that illustrate the average Vegas spread based on the visiting team and home team grouping. When running a confidence formula to determine the low and high Vegas spread, I’ve discovered that when the actual Vegas Spread is within the low/ high values I’m getting a better win percentage against the spread.
The charts below are broken down respectfully (Average, Divisional, Conference, and Non-Conference) showing that the Vegas spread changes based on the type of game.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-L...it?usp=sharing

The next image is of my win percentage which is calculated over a four year span 2009 to 2012 or 960 regular season games. Now the current set up is formula based selecting 45% of those games however it’s picking a high win percentage. When I include the variable above its selecting roughly 2% of the 960 games.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-L...it?usp=sharing

My question is if having a better understanding of what the Vegas spread should be based on the match up grouping, I’m thinking that I could use that to adjust the projected scores to either add or subtract points based on the difference of the actual Vegas Spread and the projected Vegas Spread. Does this logic seem right or am I on the wrong path?

I’m hoping I made some sense out of all of this but its late and I’ve been working on this stuff tonight way too long.

If you have questions please ask.

Thanks
ny92mike

[ny92mike]

Week 1 Picks

Going on a limb here and taking the Seahawks. I was working all day to get the preseason statistical data set up for Week 1. I won't be betting on any week 1 games simply because the system I use needs stats but this week I'm working on using preseason stats to get projections for week 1.

I'll be working on the system to get it ready for week 1, so with the thursday night game I'm just making a educated guess, once I get the information loaded I'll post the results but with this nights game rapidly approaching I'm not going to have the time to finish before kick off.

Good Luck guys.

[McCarthyFam]

I'll be checking in to see how this goes. Good luck!

[ny92mike]

I'll be checking in to see how this goes. Good luck!

Sounds good and thanks.

[KVB]

I too will stop by...



Good Luck

[ny92mike]

Week 1 Picks

Alright I’m posting this week’s picks but again I won’t be adding them to my weekly totals as this week’s games are based off of preseason statistics which I haven't attempted before.

In the future I'll get the formatting worked out.

Thanks

Match Up	Vegas Spread	Over / Under	Away Proj. Score	Home Proj. Score	Proj. Total	Difference	Proj. ATS Winner	Proj. O/U
Week_01 | GreenBayPackers @ SeattleSeahawks	5	47	25.3	29.4	54.7	0.8	GreenBayPackers	Over
Week_01 | NewOrleansSaints @ AtlantaFalcons	-3	51.5	21.3	21.7	43.0	-3.3	AtlantaFalcons	Under
Week_01 | BuffaloBills @ ChicagoBears	6.5	47.5	18.3	20.1	38.4	4.7	BuffaloBills	Under
Week_01 | WashingtonRedskins @ HoustonTexans	3	44.5	27.2	18.4	45.6	11.7	WashingtonRedskins	Over
Week_01 | TennesseeTitans @ KansasCityChiefs	3	43.5	19.9	20.6	40.5	2.2	TennesseeTitans	Under
Week_01 | NewEnglandPatriots @ MiamiDolphins	-4	46.5	22.8	23.4	46.2	-4.6	MiamiDolphins	Under
Week_01 | OaklandRaiders @ NewYorkJets	5.5	39.5	21.4	20.0	41.5	6.9	OaklandRaiders	Over
Week_01 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ PhiladelphiaEagles	10.5	52.5	20.1	27.2	47.3	3.5	JacksonvilleJaguars	Under
Week_01 | ClevelandBrowns @ PittsburghSteelers	6.5	41.5	20.5	18.5	39.0	8.5	ClevelandBrowns	Under
Week_01 | MinnesotaVikings @ St.LouisRams	3.5	43.5	26.4	25.1	51.5	4.8	MinnesotaVikings	Over
Week_01 | CincinnatiBengals @ BaltimoreRavens	1	42.5	23.3	30.2	53.5	-5.9	BaltimoreRavens	Over
Week_01 | SanFrancisco49ers @ DallasCowboys	-4	51	19.1	16.6	35.7	-1.5	DallasCowboys	Under
Week_01 | CarolinaPanthers @ TampaBayBuccaneers	2.5	39	19.8	18.7	38.5	3.7	CarolinaPanthers	Under
Week_01 | IndianapolisColts @ DenverBroncos	7.5	55.5	18.4	30.8	49.2	-4.8	DenverBroncos	Under
Week_01 | SanDiegoChargers @ ArizonaCardinals	3	45	19.8	23.3	43.1	-0.5	ArizonaCardinals	Under
Week_01 | NewYorkGiants @ DetroitLions	6	47	22.0	26.7	48.8	1.3	NewYorkGiants	Over

[Ytown6]

I will be following you again, Mike!

[ny92mike]

I will be following you again, Mike!

Thanks.

Still haven't found a great way to include injuries into the formula or at least not this late in the game but I am starting to pull data from strength of schedule. Doing some back testing on it this week along with perhaps another process for calculating the match ups. I'll keep you all posted on the back testing figures.

Again, I wouldn't recommend using any of the picks I've posted for this weeks games as its all predicated on preseason statistics. I'm hopeful that this years run yields a higher percentage ATS but more importantly the Over/ Under.

If you can't tell I'm excited that the season is finally here, I just hope that I've done enough with the changes to the formulas to produce a better outcome.

[2daBank]

were skins preseason statistics good enough or hou defensive preseason statistics really bad enough for you to project skins for 27 points? im honestly just curious cause i dont really look at preseason stats, assuming if it is so that a lot of skins numbers came when cousins was in the gm cause i caught a few 1st qrts of skins 1st team and there no way they put up any kind of numbers..

[ny92mike]

were skins preseason statistics good enough or hou defensive preseason statistics really bad enough for you to project skins for 27 points? im honestly just curious cause i dont really look at preseason stats, assuming if it is so that a lot of skins numbers came when cousins was in the gm cause i caught a few 1st qrts of skins 1st team and there no way they put up any kind of numbers..

Washingtons preseason statistics were pretty impressive actually, a lot better than I would have expected, while Houston was outplayed in basically every statistical category. With that said, preseason stats don't mean much when it comes to the regular season. Starters get limited playing time, both offensive and defensive schemes are basic game plans, etc. So its hard to put much stock in preseason stats outside of determining the value of depth for each team.

http://www.nfl.com/teams/washingtonredskins/statistics?season=2014&team=WAS&seasonType=PRE

http://www.nfl.com/teams/houstontexans/statistics?season=2014&team=HOU&seasonType=PRE

Based on the current preseason statistics my projected win totals for each team is as follows:

PROJECTED WINS	Team
15	DenverBroncos
13	MinnesotaVikings
12	BaltimoreRavens
12	GreenBayPackers
12	SeattleSeahawks
11	DetroitLions
11	WashingtonRedskins
11	ArizonaCardinals
10	CincinnatiBengals
10	PhiladelphiaEagles
10	NewYorkGiants
9	NewEnglandPatriots
9	MiamiDolphins
9	NewOrleansSaints
8	St.LouisRams
8	ClevelandBrowns
8	OaklandRaiders
8	CarolinaPanthers
7	JacksonvilleJaguars
7	TennesseeTitans
6	SanFrancisco49ers
6	TampaBayBuccaneers
6	AtlantaFalcons
6	SanDiegoChargers
5	PittsburghSteelers
5	NewYorkJets
4	HoustonTexans
4	ChicagoBears
4	KansasCityChiefs
4	IndianapolisColts
4	BuffaloBills
3	DallasCowboys

Now with that posted, I'm basically laughing because it looks crazy to even think that half of it could be correct, again preseason stats just fail with this system because I'm taking all of the stats, not just the starters.

In talking about the Washington/Houston game or any game this week using this system I wouldn't put much stock in the scores simply because I'm using preseason stats for this first week, take the thursday night game formula projected scores of GB 25 and Sea 29 pts, which wasn't even close to accurate outside of picking Seattle to win straight up.

I wont' pretend to say I've watched all the preseason games, actually I've only watched the Giants preseason games and a couple Dallas games so I can't comment of if they played better with Cousins, McCoy or RG3 at quarterback but I will say this though that statistically the entire unit both offense, defense and special teams played better than their competition this preseason. But their comp was a missed bag of talent against NE, Cle, Bal and TB.

With the home team 3 pt favorites and my system aside I think I'd take Washington in this game.

Good luck which ever team you choose. If I do any betting this week it'll be on the over and unders.

[ny92mike]

Can't help myself

Taking a small wager on a 4 team teaser

buffalo +12½-110

washington +9+105

carolina +9-120

philadelphia -5-110

[ny92mike]

Perhaps if Washington was better with ball security the teaser might of paid out. Not a huge loss, didn't wager much so I can live with it.

With the posted picks I stand at 62% ATS, 46% O/U, and 54% Straight Up. Won't be happy until the percentages are better but for week 1 it aint bad.

Feel strong about Denver and Arizona games this week but the Giants at Detroit I'm not sold on either team.

GL and I'll see ya next week.


After this week I'll try to get more information available to you each week. In terms of Sos percentages, how each team is winning or losing within the system, stdev, confidence low / high etc.

[ny92mike]

Week 1 Results

ATS = 50%

O/U = 56%

Straight Up = 63%


Not a great week of results but considering I was using preseason stats I can't complain.

I'm working on getting this weeks projections out but I'll be adding another formula to the mix, see if over time one establishes as a better system.

I'll have that information out late tonight.

Thanks

[Turfgrass]

interesting...I can't wait to see how it pans out.

Best of Luck! I'm along for the ride.

[PhilTheTHRILL]

interesting...I can't wait to see how it pans out.

Best of Luck! I'm along for the ride.

Ditto! Looks pretty interesting

[ny92mike]

Week 2 Projections

Alright little frustrated with nfl.com this is the second year in a row that their team stats site is behind the times. This go around they don't have offensive line stats at all and kick return is only listing 25 of the 32 teams.

I'm hoping that they get it corrected soon, for now. I'll post what I've got and if they get it corrected over the next couple days I'll re-run the numbers.

The first group of match ups is based on the team's grade and forecasting a projected score, obviously strength of schedule isn’t factored into the formula so use your best judgment in making your selections but at the end of this I’ll be posting my picks based on what I’m seeing.

Match Up	Vegas Spread	Over / Under	Away Proj. Score	Home Proj. Score	Proj. Total	Difference	Proj. ATS Winner	Proj. O/U
Week_02 | PittsburghSteelers @ BaltimoreRavens	2.5	44	21.5	20.5	42.0	3.5	PittsburghSteelers	Under
Week_02 | MiamiDolphins @ BuffaloBills	-1.5	43	24.8	26.7	51.5	-3.5	BuffaloBills	Over
Week_02 | DetroitLions @ CarolinaPanthers	2.5	43.5	27.2	27.9	55.1	1.7	DetroitLions	Over
Week_02 | AtlantaFalcons @ CincinnatiBengals	5	48.5	22.9	27.8	50.8	0.1	AtlantaFalcons	Over
Week_02 | NewOrleansSaints @ ClevelandBrowns	-6.5	47.5	20.8	22.8	43.6	-8.5	ClevelandBrowns	Under
Week_02 | NewEnglandPatriots @ MinnesotaVikings	-3	49	17.1	30.4	47.5	-16.3	MinnesotaVikings	Under
Week_02 | ArizonaCardinals @ NewYorkGiants	-3	43	22.2	17.1	39.3	2.1	ArizonaCardinals	Under
Week_02 | DallasCowboys @ TennesseeTitans	3	49.5	17.6	32.1	49.7	-11.5	TennesseeTitans	Over
Week_02 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ WashingtonRedskins	6	43.5	18.4	19.1	37.5	5.3	JacksonvilleJaguars	Under
Week_02 | SeattleSeahawks @ SanDiegoChargers	-6	44	25.0	21.3	46.2	-2.3	SanDiegoChargers	Over
Week_02 | St.LouisRams @ TampaBayBuccaneers	6	37	15.9	18.9	34.7	3.0	St.LouisRams	Under
Week_02 | KansasCityChiefs @ DenverBroncos	12.5	51.5	16.2	29.5	45.6	-0.8	DenverBroncos	Under
Week_02 | NewYorkJets @ GreenBayPackers	8	46	23.4	19.7	43.1	11.8	NewYorkJets	Under
Week_02 | HoustonTexans @ OaklandRaiders	-3	39.5	23.0	18.0	41.0	2.0	HoustonTexans	Over
Week_02 | ChicagoBears @ SanFrancisco49ers	7	48.5	20.2	28.6	48.8	-1.4	SanFrancisco49ers	Over
Week_02 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ IndianapolisColts	3	53.5	23.7	20.5	44.2	6.2	PhiladelphiaEagles	Under

This next set of numbers is the second formula I mentioned. It got better results last week and with what little back testing I did shows that it might be a bit more accurate against the spread.
With this set up there are 8 groups 1 thru 8 with 1 being the best and 8 the worst, the VScore and HScore are the projected scores based on the average of what those groups have done in the past when matched up. The Stdev is the standard deviation, so the lower the number the better the odds that the score will be close to the projected score. The Low/ High is formulated using the confidence formula at 65%. The Avg./ Low / High Dif. is the various possible outcomes with taking the vscore + spread – hscore. The Low Dif. is the Visitor Low + spread – Home High and the High Dif. is the opposite.
When the formula matches all three to either the home or away team it denotes them with an asterisk. In the back testing these method has been more accurate than the above.

			Visitor Scoring Info.					Home Scoring Info.
Match Up	Vegas Spread	Over / Under	Vgroup	Vscore	Stdev	Low	High	Hgroup	Hscore	Stdev	Low	High	Avg. Dif	Low Dif.	Hgh Dif.	Projected ATS Winner	Projected Total	Projected O/U
Week_02 | PittsburghSteelers @ BaltimoreRavens	2.5	44.0	Group 4	24.9	7.9	24.0	25.7	Group 6	21.5	6.0	20.8	22.1	5.9	4.4	7.4	* - PittsburghSteelers	46.4	Over
Week_02 | MiamiDolphins @ BuffaloBills	-1.5	43.0	Group 2	18.5	10.7	17.1	19.9	Group 3	24.4	7.0	23.5	25.3	-7.4	-9.7	-5.1	* - BuffaloBills	42.9	Under
Week_02 | DetroitLions @ CarolinaPanthers	2.5	43.5	Group 1	19.4	8.4	18.2	20.6	Group 2	23.9	8.1	22.7	25.1	-2.0	-4.4	0.4	CarolinaPanthers	43.3	Under
Week_02 | AtlantaFalcons @ CincinnatiBengals	5.0	48.5	Group 4	24.2	11.0	22.9	25.4	Group 3	28.1	12.7	26.6	29.5	1.1	-1.6	3.8	AtlantaFalcons	52.3	Over
Week_02 | NewOrleansSaints @ ClevelandBrowns	-6.5	47.5	Group 5	23.8	9.8	22.0	25.6	Group 5	17.0	8.3	15.5	18.5	0.3	-3.0	3.7	NewOrleansSaints	40.8	Under
Week_02 | NewEnglandPatriots @ MinnesotaVikings	-3.0	49.0	Group 7	15.9	6.7	15.0	16.8	Group 1	33.7	15.3	31.6	35.8	-20.8	-23.8	-17.8	* - MinnesotaVikings	49.6	Over
Week_02 | ArizonaCardinals @ NewYorkGiants	-3.0	43.0	Group 4	24.3	7.9	23.3	25.2	Group 8	16.7	8.0	15.7	17.6	4.6	2.7	6.5	* - ArizonaCardinals	40.9	Under
Week_02 | DallasCowboys @ TennesseeTitans	3.0	49.5	Group 7	15.9	6.7	15.0	16.8	Group 1	33.7	15.3	31.6	35.8	-14.8	-17.8	-11.8	* - TennesseeTitans	49.6	Over
Week_02 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ WashingtonRedskins	6.0	43.5	Group 6	18.9	8.3	17.9	20.0	Group 7	19.9	6.4	19.1	20.7	5.0	3.1	6.9	* - JacksonvilleJaguars	38.8	Under
Week_02 | SeattleSeahawks @ SanDiegoChargers	-6.0	44.0	Group 2	25.3	10.4	24.0	26.7	Group 5	20.2	6.6	19.3	21.0	-0.8	-3.1	1.4	SanDiegoChargers	45.5	Over
Week_02 | St.LouisRams @ TampaBayBuccaneers	6.0	37.0	Group 8	23.1	11.1	21.6	24.5	Group 7	27.8	9.8	26.5	29.0	1.3	-1.4	4.1	St.LouisRams	50.8	Over
Week_02 | KansasCityChiefs @ DenverBroncos	12.5	51.5	Group 8	14.1	10.3	12.9	15.2	Group 1	34.9	10.4	33.7	36.0	-8.3	-10.6	-6.0	* - DenverBroncos	48.9	Under
Week_02 | NewYorkJets @ GreenBayPackers	8.0	46.0	Group 3	26.5	8.6	25.3	27.7	Group 6	26.0	10.5	24.5	27.5	8.5	5.8	11.2	* - NewYorkJets	52.5	Over
Week_02 | HoustonTexans @ OaklandRaiders	-3.0	39.5	Group 4	24.3	7.9	23.3	25.2	Group 8	16.7	8.0	15.7	17.6	4.6	2.7	6.5	* - HoustonTexans	40.9	Over
Week_02 | ChicagoBears @ SanFrancisco49ers	7.0	48.5	Group 5	16.0	10.0	14.7	17.3	Group 2	32.8	7.9	31.8	33.8	-9.8	-12.0	-7.5	* - SanFrancisco49ers	48.8	Over
Week_02 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ IndianapolisColts	3.0	53.5	Group 3	26.5	8.6	25.3	27.7	Group 6	26.0	10.5	24.5	27.5	3.5	0.8	6.2	* - PhiladelphiaEagles	52.5	Under

I know I said I’d be posting my picks at the end of this but I’d really like to hold out to see if nfl.com corrects the stats so that I can include the offensive line stats and the rest of the special teams. I’ll have it posted before kick off though.

Thanks and good luck this week.

[ny92mike]

My picks

6 Team Teaser
BuffaloBills	+7
NewOrleansSaints	-.5
SeattleSeahawks	PK
HoustonTexans	+3
DenverBroncos	-6.5
SanFrancisco49ers	-1
Straight Bet
PittsburghSteelers	+2.5
CarolinaPanthers	-3
BuffaloBills	+1
MinnesotaVikings	+3
NewOrleansSaints	-6.5
AtlantaFalcons	+5
St.LouisRams	+6
SeattleSeahawks	-6
HoustonTexans	-3
SanFrancisco49ers	-7
PhiladelphiaEagles	+3

[ny92mike]

Betting Question

Even though I'm working on a formula to project the winners and have been for several years now I found that actual betting on games isn't as easy as I thought it would be.

My last post shows my betting habits in that I typically will bet between a 4 to 6 team teaser, sometimes a parlay consisting of anywhere from 2 to 4 match-ups and several individual match ups.

I've noticed that most members when posting their projections typically select anywhere from 1 to 4 games for the week and not the entire weeks games. I'm guessing that this is the better strategy rather than what I'm doing.

Stupid question I'm sure but is it best to find that "lock" or couple "locks" and just bet heavy on those rather than a little on a lot of games?

Any advice to this newbie would be much appreciated.

Thanks.


Also, would love to have some feedback on this weeks formula projections. For example, the formula selections for this week have the Jets out right winning against NE, I know that strength of schedule and injuries aren't factored into my formula at least not this early into the season but feedback would be valuable to me in pointing out such things.

When I run the matchup for each team in an offense vs defense approach the results are as follows:

Visitor Team	Home Team	VSCN	HSCN	SCN	Projected SU Winner
PittsburghSteelers	BaltimoreRavens	1.26	-1.60	2.86	PittsburghSteelers
MiamiDolphins	BuffaloBills	0.46	-1.31	1.77	MiamiDolphins
DetroitLions	CarolinaPanthers	0.86	-1.80	2.65	DetroitLions
AtlantaFalcons	CincinnatiBengals	-0.11	0.63	-0.74	CincinnatiBengals
NewOrleansSaints	ClevelandBrowns	1.72	0.82	0.90	NewOrleansSaints
NewEnglandPatriots	MinnesotaVikings	-3.81	2.87	-6.69	MinnesotaVikings
ArizonaCardinals	NewYorkGiants	1.92	-2.72	4.64	ArizonaCardinals
DallasCowboys	TennesseeTitans	-3.76	3.35	-7.11	TennesseeTitans
JacksonvilleJaguars	WashingtonRedskins	0.55	-0.83	1.38	JacksonvilleJaguars
SeattleSeahawks	SanDiegoChargers	2.07	-3.00	5.07	SeattleSeahawks
St.LouisRams	TampaBayBuccaneers	-0.91	0.05	-0.95	TampaBayBuccaneers
KansasCityChiefs	DenverBroncos	-3.67	3.14	-6.81	DenverBroncos
NewYorkJets	GreenBayPackers	1.44	-2.52	3.96	NewYorkJets
HoustonTexans	OaklandRaiders	2.04	-3.12	5.16	HoustonTexans
ChicagoBears	SanFrancisco49ers	-1.15	1.75	-2.90	SanFrancisco49ers
PhiladelphiaEagles	IndianapolisColts	2.22	-2.02	4.24	PhiladelphiaEagles

The current strength of schedule listing is as follows; however keep in mind that with only one week of data this is going to look rather skewed.

team	SoS Records
ChicagoBears	2.3
SanDiegoChargers	2.3
OaklandRaiders	2.3
PittsburghSteelers	2.0
NewOrleansSaints	2.0
TampaBayBuccaneers	2.0
DallasCowboys	2.0
IndianapolisColts	2.0
ArizonaCardinals	1.7
NewEnglandPatriots	1.7
GreenBayPackers	1.7
MinnesotaVikings	1.7
KansasCityChiefs	1.7
SeattleSeahawks	1.7
St.LouisRams	1.7
CincinnatiBengals	1.7
JacksonvilleJaguars	1.7
NewYorkGiants	1.7
HoustonTexans	1.7
SanFrancisco49ers	1.3
AtlantaFalcons	1.3
DetroitLions	1.3
CarolinaPanthers	1.3
BuffaloBills	1.3
DenverBroncos	1.3
MiamiDolphins	1.3
BaltimoreRavens	1.3
PhiladelphiaEagles	1.3
TennesseeTitans	1.3
ClevelandBrowns	1.3
NewYorkJets	1.0
WashingtonRedskins	0.0

Again Good Luck this week.

[ny92mike]

Way off tonight's game.

[ny92mike]

Week 2 Results

System 1

ATS = 50%

O/U = 44%

Straight Up = 56%


System 2

ATS = 50%

O/U = 44%

Straight Up = 50%


Looks like the nfl.com site has fixed the kick return page error of having only 25 teams listed but still the offensive line page is down. Not certain to what degree it would of helped last weeks projections but it would be nice if they would hurry up and get it corrected.

[ny92mike]

Week 3 Early Picks

Chargers +2.5

Ravens -1.5


These two games stood out to me while the formula picked the Bills to win, I went with my own judgement in that SD has had the toughest strength of schedule to date 100% while buffalo fell in the below average range at 19%. With projected score of 24 to 31, I'm hoping that the SOS percentages makes up for the points needed to cover the spread.

In the Baltimore vs Cleveland game its projecting the Ravens to win by 2 points but their sos is 55% vs 0% again going with sos.

Note: Not all games have a spread or o/u assigned yet so please pay attention to that.

System 1

Match Up	Vegas Spread	Over / Under	VSoS	HSoS	Vwin%	Hwin%	Away Proj. Score	Home Proj. Score	Proj. Total	Difference	Proj. ATS Winner	Proj. Straight Up	Proj. O/U
Week_03 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ AtlantaFalcons	6.5	45	84%	55%	100%	100%	19.2	19.5	38.7	6.2	TampaBayBuccaneers	AtlantaFalcons	Under
Week_03 | SanDiegoChargers @ BuffaloBills	2.5	44	100%	19%	50%	100%	23.6	31.2	54.8	-5.1	BuffaloBills	BuffaloBills	Over
Week_03 | TennesseeTitans @ CincinnatiBengals	7	43.5	3%	42%	100%	100%	19.4	31.9	51.3	-5.6	CincinnatiBengals	CincinnatiBengals	Over
Week_03 | BaltimoreRavens @ ClevelandBrowns	-1.5	41.5	55%	0%	100%	100%	23.5	21.4	44.9	0.6	BaltimoreRavens	BaltimoreRavens	Over
Week_03 | GreenBayPackers @ DetroitLions	1.5	52	55%	10%	100%	100%	20.1	26.4	46.5	-4.8	DetroitLions	DetroitLions	Under
Week_03 | IndianapolisColts @ JacksonvilleJaguars	0	0	84%	19%	100%	100%	18.8	16.6	35.4	2.2	IndianapolisColts	IndianapolisColts	Over
Week_03 | MinnesotaVikings @ NewOrleansSaints	9	51	19%	10%	50%	100%	20.1	23.2	43.3	6.0	MinnesotaVikings	NewOrleansSaints	Under
Week_03 | OaklandRaiders @ NewEnglandPatriots	14.5	47	19%	55%	50%	50%	14.3	27.0	41.3	1.8	OaklandRaiders	NewEnglandPatriots	Under
Week_03 | HoustonTexans @ NewYorkGiants	-2	42	81%	19%	100%	100%	26.8	15.5	42.3	9.3	HoustonTexans	HoustonTexans	Over
Week_03 | WashingtonRedskins @ PhiladelphiaEagles	0	0	84%	42%	100%	100%	25.0	29.2	54.1	-4.2	PhiladelphiaEagles	PhiladelphiaEagles	Over
Week_03 | DallasCowboys @ St.LouisRams	0	0	19%	10%	50%	100%	21.1	19.7	40.8	1.4	DallasCowboys	DallasCowboys	Over
Week_03 | SanFrancisco49ers @ ArizonaCardinals	0	0	55%	55%	0%	50%	24.5	28.2	52.8	-3.7	ArizonaCardinals	ArizonaCardinals	Over
Week_03 | KansasCityChiefs @ MiamiDolphins	4.5	41.5	55%	42%	100%	100%	17.4	22.9	40.3	-1.0	MiamiDolphins	MiamiDolphins	Under
Week_03 | DenverBroncos @ SeattleSeahawks	5	48.5	19%	3%	100%	100%	22.4	25.1	47.5	2.3	DenverBroncos	SeattleSeahawks	Under
Week_03 | PittsburghSteelers @ CarolinaPanthers	3	41.5	84%	55%	100%	100%	19.1	29.3	48.4	-7.3	CarolinaPanthers	CarolinaPanthers	Over
Week_03 | ChicagoBears @ NewYorkJets	1.5	45.5	97%	42%	50%	50%	19.6	24.5	44.2	-3.4	NewYorkJets	NewYorkJets	Under

System 2

Match Up	Vegas Spread	Over / Under	Vgroup	Vscore	Stdev	Low	High	Hgroup	Hscore	Stdev	Low	High	Avg. Dif	Low Dif.	Hgh Dif.	Projected ATS Winner	Proj. Straight Up	Projected Total	Projected O/U
Week_03 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ AtlantaFalcons	6.5	45.0	Group 6	18.9	8.3	17.2	20.7	Group 7	19.9	6.4	18.6	21.3	5.5	2.4	8.6	* - TampaBayBuccaneers	AtlantaFalcons	38.8	Under
Week_03 | SanDiegoChargers @ BuffaloBills	2.5	44.0	Group 3	22.6	8.8	20.5	24.7	Group 1	30.6	11.7	27.8	33.4	-5.5	-10.4	-0.6	* - BuffaloBills	BuffaloBills	53.2	Over
Week_03 | TennesseeTitans @ CincinnatiBengals	7.0	43.5	Group 6	13.5	7.1	11.8	15.1	Group 1	36.9	10.1	34.6	39.2	-16.5	-20.4	-12.6	* - CincinnatiBengals	CincinnatiBengals	50.4	Over
Week_03 | BaltimoreRavens @ ClevelandBrowns	-1.5	41.5	Group 3	29.9	12.3	27.5	32.3	Group 7	17.8	5.7	16.7	18.9	10.6	7.1	14.1	* - BaltimoreRavens	BaltimoreRavens	47.7	Over
Week_03 | GreenBayPackers @ DetroitLions	1.5	52.0	Group 5	20.9	9.9	18.5	23.3	Group 3	22.7	9.9	20.3	25.1	-0.3	-5.0	4.4	DetroitLions	DetroitLions	43.6	Under
Week_03 | IndianapolisColts @ JacksonvilleJaguars	0.0	0.0	Group 7	21.2	9.3	19.1	23.3	Group 8	19.5	8.6	17.5	21.4	1.7	-2.4	5.8	IndianapolisColts	IndianapolisColts	40.6	Over
Week_03 | MinnesotaVikings @ NewOrleansSaints	9.0	51.0	Group 5	23.8	9.8	20.8	26.9	Group 5	17.0	8.3	14.4	19.6	15.8	10.2	21.4	* - MinnesotaVikings	MinnesotaVikings	40.8	Under
Week_03 | OaklandRaiders @ NewEnglandPatriots	14.5	47.0	Group 8	14.3	9.1	12.1	16.5	Group 3	25.6	7.3	23.8	27.4	3.2	-0.7	7.1	OaklandRaiders	NewEnglandPatriots	39.9	Under
Week_03 | HoustonTexans @ NewYorkGiants	-2.0	42.0	Group 1	29.3	9.1	27.5	31.0	Group 8	15.9	7.7	14.4	17.4	11.4	8.1	14.7	* - HoustonTexans	HoustonTexans	45.1	Over
Week_03 | WashingtonRedskins @ PhiladelphiaEagles	0.0	0.0	Group 2	18.2	6.9	16.5	19.9	Group 2	22.5	10.7	19.9	25.1	-4.3	-8.5	-0.1	* - PhiladelphiaEagles	PhiladelphiaEagles	40.7	Over
Week_03 | DallasCowboys @ St.LouisRams	0.0	0.0	Group 4	23.3	12.4	20.2	26.5	Group 7	25.2	16.4	21.1	29.3	-1.9	-9.1	5.4	St.LouisRams	St.LouisRams	48.6	Over
Week_03 | SanFrancisco49ers @ ArizonaCardinals	0.0	0.0	Group 2	18.2	6.9	16.5	19.9	Group 2	22.5	10.7	19.9	25.1	-4.3	-8.5	-0.1	* - ArizonaCardinals	ArizonaCardinals	40.7	Over
Week_03 | KansasCityChiefs @ MiamiDolphins	4.5	41.5	Group 8	18.6	7.0	17.3	19.9	Group 5	25.7	6.9	24.4	27.0	-2.6	-5.2	0.1	MiamiDolphins	MiamiDolphins	44.3	Over
Week_03 | DenverBroncos @ SeattleSeahawks	5.0	48.5	Group 4	24.6	11.9	20.6	28.6	Group 4	25.4	6.7	23.1	27.7	4.2	-2.1	10.5	DenverBroncos	SeattleSeahawks	50.0	Over
Week_03 | PittsburghSteelers @ CarolinaPanthers	3.0	41.5	Group 6	13.5	7.1	11.8	15.1	Group 1	36.9	10.1	34.6	39.2	-20.5	-24.4	-16.6	* - CarolinaPanthers	CarolinaPanthers	50.4	Over
Week_03 | ChicagoBears @ NewYorkJets	1.5	45.5	Group 6	18.7	9.7	16.8	20.6	Group 4	26.9	6.7	25.6	28.2	-6.8	-10.0	-3.6	* - NewYorkJets	NewYorkJets	45.6	Over

[ny92mike]

Week 3 Picks

5 Team Parlay	san diego +2½
5 Team Parlay	dallas -1
5 Team Parlay	cincinnati -7
5 Team Parlay	baltimore -2
5 Team Parlay	indianapolis -7
5 Team Teaser	san diego +8½
5 Team Teaser	dallas +5
5 Team Teaser	cincinnati -1
5 Team Teaser	baltimore +4
5 Team Teaser	carolina +3
Straight Bet	san diego +2½
Straight Bet	baltimore -1½
Straight Bet	n.y. jets -3
Straight Bet	cincinnati -7
Straight Bet	detroit -3
Straight Bet	denver +4½

[ny92mike]

For any of you following this thread let me apologize now.

It's becoming apparent that the system still needs work, all the back testing yields positive results but each year the life runs fail to produce similar results. Part of this is because the back data is skewed statistically the other part of this is the way in which I'm using the statistical data to project the outcome. I've always known that doing it this way was flawed but the time it would take to account for the many variables is a daunting task.

Strength of schedule and injuries/ suspensions to name a couple.

The formula I'm using is calculating the stats regardless of their competition so when they face a stronger or weaker team the data is instantly a fail to the point that guessing would probably be just as accurate.

I'll continue running this data for the remainder of the season but I'm going back to the drawing board.

Thanks.

[ny92mike]

Additional bets

teaser	baltimore +4
teaser	carolina +3
teaser	cincinnati -1
teaser	dallas +5
teaser	san diego +8½
parlay	baltimore -2
parlay	cincinnati -7
parlay	dallas -1
parlay	indianapolis -7
parlay	san diego +2½
first half	buffalo -1
first half	cincinnati -4
first half	detroit -1
first half	indianapolis -4
first half	new england -9
straight	cincinnati -6½
straight	cincinnati -7
straight	dallas -1
straight	denver +4½
straight	detroit -3
straight	detroit -3
straight	giants -1
straight	jets -3

[ny92mike]

Solid week thus far....Need Carolina +3 to win out the Teaser and last two straight bets on Denver +4.5 and Jets -3 to knock it out the park. Would of been nice to not Push the Balt. game but it still paid good. Straight picks didn't let me down either.

first half	cincinnati -4	WIN
first half	detroit -1	WIN
first half	indianapolis -4	WIN
first half	buffalo -1	LOSE
first half	new england -9	LOSE
parlay	cincinnati -7	WIN
parlay	dallas -1	WIN
parlay	indianapolis -7	WIN
parlay	san diego +2½	WIN
parlay	baltimore -2	PUSH
straight	cincinnati -6½	WIN
straight	cincinnati -7	WIN
straight	dallas -1	WIN
straight	detroit -3	WIN
straight	detroit -3	WIN
straight	giants -1	WIN
straight	denver +4½	LOSE
straight	jets -3	NA
teaser	baltimore +4	WIN
teaser	cincinnati -1	WIN
teaser	dallas +5	WIN
teaser	san diego +8½	WIN
teaser	carolina +3	LOSE

[ny92mike]

Week 3 Results

SYSTEM 1	ATS	O/U	SU
WEEK 2	50%	44%	56%
WEEK 3	44%	50%	69%
SYSTEM 2	ATS	O/U	SU
WEEK 2	50%	44%	50%
WEEK 3	38%	63%	56%

Still no offensive line stats....killing me.

[Marooner]

[ny92mike]

Week 4 picks

First look:

Giants @ Redskins - Redskins have been playing some sound football but with the Giants' last week performance I'm not going to touch this game.

NO @ DAL - Formula has dallas but my gut tells me to go with NO.

Games I like:

gb @ chi

ten @ ind

tb @ pit

jac @ sd

atl @ min


System 1

Week_04 | NewYorkGiants @ WashingtonRedskins	3.5	46	13%	0%	75%	50%	16.9	29.7	46.6	-9.3	WashingtonRedskins	WashingtonRedskins	Over
Week_04 | GreenBayPackers @ ChicagoBears	-2	49.5	13%	84%	100%	75%	17.7	23.9	41.6	-8.1	ChicagoBears	ChicagoBears	Under
Week_04 | TennesseeTitans @ IndianapolisColts	7.5	45.5	58%	39%	75%	50%	17.4	28.9	46.4	-4.0	IndianapolisColts	IndianapolisColts	Over
Week_04 | BuffaloBills @ HoustonTexans	3	40.5	26%	71%	100%	25%	21.9	26.7	48.6	-1.7	HoustonTexans	HoustonTexans	Over
Week_04 | DetroitLions @ NewYorkJets	-1.5	44.5	26%	48%	50%	50%	24.8	24.8	49.6	-1.6	NewYorkJets	NewYorkJets	Over
Week_04 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ PittsburghSteelers	7	44.5	94%	87%	100%	75%	14.8	25.7	40.5	-3.9	PittsburghSteelers	PittsburghSteelers	Under
Week_04 | MiamiDolphins @ OaklandRaiders	-4	40.5	48%	39%	75%	75%	16.8	16.8	33.6	-4.0	OaklandRaiders	MiamiDolphins	Under
Week_04 | CarolinaPanthers @ BaltimoreRavens	3	40.5	71%	58%	50%	100%	22.2	27.8	50.0	-2.6	BaltimoreRavens	BaltimoreRavens	Over
Week_04 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ SanDiegoChargers	13.5	44.5	6%	97%	100%	75%	13.8	28.7	42.4	-1.4	SanDiegoChargers	SanDiegoChargers	Under
Week_04 | AtlantaFalcons @ MinnesotaVikings	-2.5	46.5	58%	13%	100%	50%	24.1	19.3	43.4	2.4	AtlantaFalcons	AtlantaFalcons	Under
Week_04 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ SanFrancisco49ers	5.5	50.5	71%	100%	50%	75%	24.7	26.4	51.1	3.8	PhiladelphiaEagles	SanFrancisco49ers	Over
Week_04 | NewOrleansSaints @ DallasCowboys	-3	53	13%	26%	50%	25%	22.3	24.9	47.1	-5.6	DallasCowboys	DallasCowboys	Under
Week_04 | NewEnglandPatriots @ KansasCityChiefs	-3.5	45	6%	39%	75%	50%	22.7	21.9	44.7	-2.7	KansasCityChiefs	NewEnglandPatriots	Under

System 2

Week_04 | NewYorkGiants @ WashingtonRedskins	3.5	46.0	Group 7	15.9	6.7	14.4	17.4	Group 1	33.7	15.3	30.2	37.2	-14.3	-19.3	-9.3	* - WashingtonRedskins	WashingtonRedskins	49.6	Over
Week_04 | GreenBayPackers @ ChicagoBears	-2.0	49.5	Group 7	17.1	12.2	14.4	19.7	Group 6	26.0	11.6	23.5	28.5	-10.9	-16.1	-5.7	* - ChicagoBears	ChicagoBears	43.1	Under
Week_04 | TennesseeTitans @ IndianapolisColts	7.5	45.5	Group 7	15.9	6.7	14.4	17.4	Group 1	33.7	15.3	30.2	37.2	-10.3	-15.3	-5.3	* - IndianapolisColts	IndianapolisColts	49.6	Over
Week_04 | BuffaloBills @ HoustonTexans	3.0	40.5	Group 5	20.9	9.9	18.5	23.3	Group 3	22.7	9.9	20.3	25.1	1.2	-3.5	5.9	BuffaloBills	HoustonTexans	43.6	Over
Week_04 | DetroitLions @ NewYorkJets	-1.5	44.5	Group 1	30.5	12.8	27.8	33.1	Group 5	18.7	10.9	16.4	21.0	10.3	5.3	15.2	* - DetroitLions	DetroitLions	49.2	Over
Week_04 | TampaBayBuccaneers @ PittsburghSteelers	7.0	44.5	Group 8	13.5	6.7	11.4	15.6	Group 4	30.7	8.7	28.0	33.3	-10.2	-14.9	-5.4	* - PittsburghSteelers	PittsburghSteelers	44.2	Under
Week_04 | MiamiDolphins @ OaklandRaiders	-4.0	40.5	Group 8	18.3	7.7	16.4	20.3	Group 8	20.1	9.4	17.7	22.5	-5.8	-10.1	-1.5	* - OaklandRaiders	OaklandRaiders	38.4	Under
Week_04 | CarolinaPanthers @ BaltimoreRavens	3.0	40.5	Group 4	24.2	11.0	22.1	26.3	Group 3	28.1	12.7	25.7	30.5	-0.9	-5.3	3.6	BaltimoreRavens	BaltimoreRavens	52.3	Over
Week_04 | JacksonvilleJaguars @ SanDiegoChargers	13.5	44.5	Group 8	15.4	10.2	13.1	17.7	Group 2	26.9	10.0	24.6	29.2	2.0	-2.6	6.5	JacksonvilleJaguars	SanDiegoChargers	42.3	Under
Week_04 | AtlantaFalcons @ MinnesotaVikings	-2.5	46.5	Group 2	23.0	9.9	20.9	25.1	Group 7	21.4	7.6	19.8	23.0	-0.9	-4.5	2.8	MinnesotaVikings	AtlantaFalcons	44.4	Under
Week_04 | PhiladelphiaEagles @ SanFrancisco49ers	5.5	50.5	Group 2	18.5	10.7	16.2	20.8	Group 3	24.4	7.0	22.9	25.9	-0.4	-4.3	3.4	SanFrancisco49ers	SanFrancisco49ers	42.9	Under
Week_04 | NewOrleansSaints @ DallasCowboys	-3.0	53.0	Group 4	21.6	9.6	18.8	24.3	Group 5	26.6	9.0	24.0	29.2	-8.0	-13.3	-2.7	* - DallasCowboys	DallasCowboys	48.1	Under
Week_04 | NewEnglandPatriots @ KansasCityChiefs	-3.5	45.0	Group 3	26.5	8.6	24.4	28.6	Group 6	26.0	10.5	23.5	28.5	-3.0	-7.6	1.6	KansasCityChiefs	NewEnglandPatriots	52.5	Over

My bets to follow.

[ny92mike]

PARLAY - IndianapolisColts -7½

PARLAY - PittsburghSteelers -7

PARLAY - SanDiegoChargers -13½

PARLAY - AtlantaFalcons -2½

STRAIGHT BET - NewYorkGiants +3½

STRAIGHT BET - OaklandRaiders +4

STRAIGHT BET - ChicagoBears +2

STRAIGHT BET - IndianapolisColts -7½

STRAIGHT BET - BaltimoreRavens -3

STRAIGHT BET - PittsburghSteelers -7

STRAIGHT BET - SanDiegoChargers -13½

STRAIGHT BET - PhiladelphiaEagles +5½

STRAIGHT BET - AtlantaFalcons -2½

STRAIGHT BET - NewOrleansSaints -3

STRAIGHT BET - NewEnglandPatriots -3½

TEASER - ChicagoBears +8

TEASER - IndianapolisColts -1½

TEASER - PittsburghSteelers -1

TEASER - SanDiegoChargers -7½

Good Luck...

I'll be adding more games Fri. or Sat.

[ny92mike]

PARLAY - IndianapolisColts -7½
PARLAY - PittsburghSteelers -7
PARLAY - SanDiegoChargers -13½
PARLAY - AtlantaFalcons -2½
STRAIGHT BET - NewYorkGiants +3½
STRAIGHT BET - OaklandRaiders +4
STRAIGHT BET - ChicagoBears +2
STRAIGHT BET - IndianapolisColts -7½
STRAIGHT BET - BaltimoreRavens -3
STRAIGHT BET - PittsburghSteelers -7
STRAIGHT BET - SanDiegoChargers -13½
STRAIGHT BET - PhiladelphiaEagles +5½
STRAIGHT BET - AtlantaFalcons -2½
STRAIGHT BET - NewOrleansSaints -3
STRAIGHT BET - NewEnglandPatriots -3½
TEASER - ChicagoBears +8
TEASER - IndianapolisColts -1½
TEASER - PittsburghSteelers -1
TEASER - SanDiegoChargers -7½

[ny92mike]

Additional bets

Additional picks for the week.

4 Team Parlay	INDIANAPOLIS -7½-110	20.00 / 191.18
4 Team Parlay	PITTSBURGH -7-115
4 Team Parlay	SAN DIEGO -13½-105
4 Team Parlay	ATLANTA -2½-120
4 Team Teaser	CHICAGO +8-110 (B+6)	60.00 / 153.00
4 Team Teaser	INDIANAPOLIS -1½-110 (B+6)
4 Team Teaser	PITTSBURGH -1-115 (B+6)
4 Team Teaser	SAN DIEGO -7½-105 (B+6)
Straight Bet	OAKLAND +4-110	20.00 / 18.18
Straight Bet	CHICAGO +2-110	20.00 / 18.18
Straight Bet	INDIANAPOLIS -7½-110	20.00 / 18.18
Straight Bet	BALTIMORE -3-120	20.00 / 16.67
Straight Bet	PITTSBURGH -7-115	20.00 / 17.39
Straight Bet	SAN DIEGO -13½-105	20.00 / 19.05
Straight Bet	PHILADELPHIA +5½-110	20.00 / 18.18
Straight Bet	ATLANTA -2½-120	20.00 / 16.67
Straight Bet	NEW ORLEANS -3-115	20.00 / 17.39
Straight Bet	NEW ENGLAND -3½-105	20.00 / 19.05
Straight Bet	1H CHICAGO +½-115	11.50 / 10.00
Straight Bet	1H INDIANAPOLIS -4½-110	44.00 / 40.00
Straight Bet	1H PITTSBURGH -4½-110	44.00 / 40.00
Straight Bet	1H SAN DIEGO -7-110	44.00 / 40.00
Straight Bet	1H ATLANTA -½-120	48.00 / 40.00
Straight Bet	1H NEW ORLEANS -2½-110	11.00 / 10.00
5 Team Parlay	N.Y. GIANTS +157	20.00 / 711.49
5 Team Parlay	INDIANAPOLIS -7½-105
5 Team Parlay	PITTSBURGH -7½-110
5 Team Parlay	SAN DIEGO -13-110
5 Team Parlay	ATLANTA -3EV
8 Team Teaser	OAKLAND +9½-110	40.00 / 500.00
8 Team Teaser	HOUSTON +3-105
8 Team Teaser	INDIANAPOLIS -1½-110
8 Team Teaser	DETROIT +4-110
8 Team Teaser	PITTSBURGH -1½EV
8 Team Teaser	SAN DIEGO -7-105
8 Team Teaser	PHILADELPHIA +11-110
8 Team Teaser	ATLANTA +3-102

Over the last few weeks my straight up picks ATS stand at 63% accuracy. 27 games 17 wins.

Profits:

Straight Up: 104.25

Teaser: -40.00

Parlay: 216.06

TYPE	TEAM	RISK	WIN	W/L AMOUNT	RESULT
5 TEAM PARLAY	SAN DIEGO +2½-105	$20.00	$472.65	$216.06	WIN
5 TEAM PARLAY	DALLAS -1-110				WIN
5 TEAM PARLAY	CINCINNATI -7-105				WIN
5 TEAM PARLAY	BALTIMORE -2-110				PUSH
5 TEAM PARLAY	INDIANAPOLIS -7-105				WIN
5 TEAM TEASER	SAN DIEGO +8½-105 (B+6)	$30.00	$132.00	-$30.00	WIN
5 TEAM TEASER	DALLAS +5-110 (B+6)				WIN
5 TEAM TEASER	CINCINNATI -1-105 (B+6)				WIN
5 TEAM TEASER	BALTIMORE +4-110 (B+6)				WIN
5 TEAM TEASER	CAROLINA +3-115 (B+6)				LOSE
6 TEAM TEASER	BUFFALO +7-110 (B+6)	$10.00	$68.00	-$10.00	WIN
6 TEAM TEASER	NEW ORLEANS -½-105 (B+6)				LOSE
6 TEAM TEASER	SEATTLE PK-110 (B+6)				PEND
6 TEAM TEASER	HOUSTON +3-105 (B+6)				PEND
6 TEAM TEASER	DENVER -6½-110 (B+6)				PEND
6 TEAM TEASER	SAN FRANCISCO -1-105 (B+6)				PEND
STRAIGHT UP	PITTSBURGH +2½-105	$10.00	$9.52	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	CAROLINA -3EV	$10.00	$10.00	$10.00	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	BUFFALO +1-110	$10.00	$9.09	$9.09	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	MINNESOTA +3-120	$10.00	$8.33	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	NEW ORLEANS -6½-105	$10.00	$9.52	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	ATLANTA +5-110	$10.00	$9.09	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	SEATTLE -6-110	$10.00	$9.09	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	ST. LOUIS +6-105	$10.00	$9.52	$9.52	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	HOUSTON -3-105	$10.00	$9.52	$9.52	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	SAN FRANCISCO -7-105	$10.00	$9.52	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	PHILADELPHIA +3-105	$10.00	$9.52	$9.52	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	1H BUFFALO -1-110	$10.00	$9.09	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	1H CINCINNATI -4-110	$10.00	$9.09	$9.09	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	1H DETROIT -1-110	$10.00	$9.09	$9.09	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	1H INDIANAPOLIS -4-110	$10.00	$9.09	$9.09	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	1H NEW ENGLAND -9-110	$10.00	$9.09	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	DETROIT -3+105	$10.00	$10.50	$10.50	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	DETROIT -3+105	$10.00	$10.50	$10.50	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	BALTIMORE -1½-110	$30.00	$27.27	$27.27	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	N.Y. GIANTS -1-110	$10.00	$9.09	$9.09	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	DALLAS -1-110	$10.00	$9.09	$9.09	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	CINCINNATI -7-105	$10.00	$9.52	$9.52	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	CINCINNATI -6½-110	$10.00	$9.09	$9.09	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	SAN DIEGO +2½-115	$30.00	$26.09	$26.09	WIN
STRAIGHT UP	DENVER +4½-110	$10.00	$9.09	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	N.Y. JETS -3+105	$10.00	$10.50	-$10.00	LOSE
STRAIGHT UP	N.Y. GIANTS +3½-110	$20.00	$18.18	$18.18	WIN

[ny92mike]

Thoughts on this week's picks.

[ny92mike]

Down a couple hundred. Going to attempt to get it back with the saints.