49ers Team Total Under 17.5 Any Thoughts?

McBa1n · 09-23-06, 10:32 AM

It's bets like these that I don't consider enough... And it costs me a lot of money.

Obviously Kearse being out hurts, but that D is still _VERY_ sound versus the run. The pass? Well, I think San Fran hasn't seen a scheme like Philly's. My gut has been telling me all week that Alex Smith is going to be on his butt most of the game with 7 man blitzes. San Fran is pretty thin at wideout. Antonio Bryant? Yeesh.
Philly is banged up at corner, though... Lito Sheppard is definitly out and that hurts a lot.

It's important to note that the 9rs havn't played anyone yet and have run the ball well... The Rams aren't exactly stout against the run (the Denver game was a fluke) and Arizona has some playmakers on D, but as a unit, are VERY weak. I havn't seen enough of San Fran yet this year (and 1 game only in preseason) - but just glancing at all the numbers, etc, there's NO reason to believe they've 'arrived'. They just don't have developed playmakers. Meanwhile, the Giants are a top 5-10 running team and did nothing against Philly. That's bad news for the 9rs.

I think people are under-rating the Eagles this week (although I hate the spread). They have a great D scheme... They only blew that game vs the NYG because of horrible management and 2 HUGE mental miscues. The NYG are legit, San Fran?
Not yet.

I spent a lot of time on this game in general this week, but I just havn't seen enough of San Fran yet to be real confident... I see a LOT of people taking San Fran, but I havn't seen a real reason why. After all that, though, I may have sold myself on another ML bet heh... Philly isn't awesome, but they're very competitive and probably a .500 or better team. The 9rs, even with their patty cake schedule, likely won't get to .500.

I would like the play more if it was under 20 1/2 (hehe, yeah, that's a bad line), but I think it's 75% or better you'll win with these teams at their present state. Heh - I think I may jump on this, too... Hope it works out if you lay some coin down. I'm glad you put this up - it could be the angle I've been missing all week. I focus so hard on who will win the game and the o/u that I forget team totals are in play, too:>.

anthon9283 · 09-23-06, 11:56 AM

hmm I think under 17.5 is pretty close I think the 49ers will get around 14 points. Seeing I am a niner fan I wouldn't take this bet

I remember reading that the Eagles are beat up, Westbrook, some DBs, and Kearse is out. Westbrook will probably play but he won't be 100%. I think the Eagles will bring the offense but I think they will lack more in D.