(not about SB) I HAVE A 100% GUARANTEE FOR YOU GUYS

Jikos · 02-02-14, 01:55 PM

So "Her" to win best picture? I have this at +5500 on my book.

Bumdeal · 02-02-14, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by Jikos

So "Her" to win best picture? I have this at +5500 on my book.

Best screenplay not best picture

spk1313 · 02-02-14, 03:16 PM

Originally Posted by Jikos
So "Her" to win best picture? I have this at +5500 on my book.

Originally posted by Bumdeal

Best screenplay not best picture

Correct, it will win Best Original Screenplay not Best Picture. Most books are offering odds on this category as it is one of the major awards given at the show - and that's why I'm surprised the books haven't been quicker to shift the line. I guess there just aren't many bettors on these props, understandably. But to me, that spells opportunity.

Best picture will most likely go to 12 Years a Slave, but Gravity and American Hustle could pull an upset - but, don't count on it. The HFPA (people who give out the Golden Globes) have recently changed their model to predicting the best picture for the Oscars in order to position themselves as relevant whereas years before they were known to be notorious for being largely irrelevant. The PGA (producer's guild) has been a fantastic indicator for the best picture in years past, but unfortunately they split their vote this year. I would stay away from best picture. Simply no value in 12 Years, and not enough value in Gravity and Hustle to warrant a play. Screenplay, best score and best actor are usually my go-to bets every year and I rarely miss. 2 of those three are already locked up this year, I suggest you jump on original screenplay while you still can.

spk1313 · 02-02-14, 08:16 PM

FYI

This line has already dropped to +250 at most sites.

It will continue dropping. Please take my advice and jump on it before it before its too late. Apparently Vegas is EXTREMELY slow to catch up to these Hollywood props. Easy Green.

Just looking' out...

Vegas is letting us

right in the poop chute. Hear me now. Believe me later. $475 bucks is enough for like 475 tacos. I mean, come on!!!!!

spk1313 · 02-03-14, 07:11 PM

Shrinkin even more boys. Get in now while you can still get plus-money...

spk1313 · 02-04-14, 01:36 AM

Taken off the board at Bovada. This one is a lock boys. Get on it.

spk1313 · 02-04-14, 06:30 PM

Average odds are now -121 according to oddschecker. Betonline still has +220 for some reason. JUMP ON THIS SHIT BOYS. Its easy money.

spk1313 · 02-04-14, 09:14 PM

Can I get a HELL YEAH from peeps who were smart enough to jump on this over the weekend????

Lets bring home the bacon boys

spk1313 · 02-05-14, 06:05 PM

Last post because there is no more value left here. It is now +140 at Betonline (my book) and way lower at most other books. With such a low cap on the max bet it's really not worth it anymore unless you have 150 to sit on for 3.5 weeks. Congrats to those who got it at +200 or better

BigdaddyQH · 02-05-14, 06:15 PM

So you post this in here? Duh????

spk1313 · 02-05-14, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

So you post this in here? Duh????

Not sure where else to post it. I usually only check this and the NCAA bball forums and I posted in both of those just to give people a heads up.

spk1313 · 02-16-14, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by spk1313

ONLY POSTING THIS HERE BECAUSE I READ THIS FORUM A LOT AND HAVE GROWN A FONDNESS FOR MOST OF THE PEOPLE WHO POST HERE. THIS PLAY HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH the SUPER BOWL BUT IT IS A GUARANTEE. (and lets face it were all looking for some quick coin)

Hear me now believe me later. "Her" is a virtual lock to win best screenplay this year and is a +275 dog at the books!!! Check your sports book right now but it won't last long. Here's why: "Her' just won the WGA award last night for best original screenplay. Born and raised in Hollywood, I work in the industry, and let me tell you one thing: this is as close to a lock as there is in this town. The writers guild is a clear indicator for who will win the oscar because of the voting set up. I just bet the max $150, wish I could risk more to be honest. (side note: anyone know of any books that offer higher limits on these props?) The awards are March 1 so don't invest if you're looking for instant gratification, but I'll take 275% ROI in one month any day of the week!!!!

Just checked online now and the price is still out there for the taking. Not sure if anyone in this board is in the entertainment business, but SAG and WGA are the two best indicators for who wins best the acting and writing categories at the oscars due to the fact that mostly only writers and actors can vote for their respective winners - and they almost always mirror the Guild picks.

Example 1: McCounaghey (for Dallas Buyers Club) (sp) was +150 prior to his SAG win last weekend. I was watching the show and when they announced his name i put 50 on him to win the oscar. Checked the spread 2 days later and low and behold, the number for Mccounaghey turned into -300 and hasn't wavered. An overwhelming favorite.

I expect the same thing to happen for "Her" in the coming days. This is only for people like me who play 10-$20 units. 150 is the max on my site and that pays 425 dollars. I'm NOT the type to start running my mouth about guarantees when I'm not sure about - but this one is 99.999999% going to happen. If it doesn't hit on March 1, I am comfortable embarrassing myself on this forum in any manner you all see fit. Lets make some coin boys.

Don't say I never gave you guys a sure thing...

]

Well, boys. Her is now the consensus favorite among critics and is a -140 favorite at the books last time I checked. I know this is the NFL forum but we're all looking for a nice hit. This was +275 when I originally posted it, hope you guys jumped in before it was too late.

Not much value left in it at this point, unfortunately. I would not suggest betting it at this price.

The Factor · 02-18-14, 11:13 PM

Matthew McConaughey (The Dallas Buyers Club)
-700

wow you got him at +150