Big Games Don't Have to Equal Big Bets

[Fred The Hammer]

Personally I just don't see how anyone can be too confident in this one. Possibly the Under? Here are just some of the variables imo:

1. Weather - Obviously high wind/cold would favor Seattle

2. Styles - Seattle has a great secondary but I've watched them many times and they grab like a priest in a room full of alter boys. If they let them play Denver is in big trouble! If they call everything (which is a little more likely imo) then Seattle will struggle.

3. Percy Harvin - The guy just has another gear like a DeSean Jackson that few players have. He's barely played and always hurt but 1-2 big plays could swing the game.

You don't see SB opponents with such different styles very often and it could be a great game but I see a 1 score game that could go either way. I did hit the Over easily last year with Balt/SF but 47.5 is a tough number too. I lean Under but Seattle presses the WRs so much that Manning will have to throw it downfield more than he has. He was pinpoint vs KC on atleast 5 throws of 30+ but the wind wasn't a factor at Arrowhead that day. Personally I just see this one as a game to sit back and enjoy!!

[Easy-Rider 66]

Personally I just don't see how anyone can be too confident in this one. Possibly the Under? Here are just some of the variables imo:

1. Weather - Obviously high wind/cold would favor Seattle

2. Styles - Seattle has a great secondary but I've watched them many times and they grab like a priest in a room full of alter boys. If they let them play Denver is in big trouble! If they call everything (which is a little more likely imo) then Seattle will struggle.

3. Percy Harvin - The guy just has another gear like a DeSean Jackson that few players have. He's barely played and always hurt but 1-2 big plays could swing the game.

You don't see SB opponents with such different styles very often and it could be a great game but I see a 1 score game that could go either way. I did hit the Over easily last year with Balt/SF but 47.5 is a tough number too. I lean Under but Seattle presses the WRs so much that Manning will have to throw it downfield more than he has. He was pinpoint vs KC on atleast 5 throws of 30+ but the wind wasn't a factor at Arrowhead that day. Personally I just see this one as a game to sit back and enjoy!!

Quite facetious on your shot against Catholics. Having said that agree there is no reason to bet big just because it's a big game. Lean Seattle with a small wager.

[Eddy Munny]

Wait a second here, so I needn't try to match the magnitude of the game with the size of my wager?

But isn't the Super Bowl the biggest game of the year?

How should I deal with peer pressure and so forth? Has this worked for you in the past?

Should I spend the spare cash on more chip dip for the party?

Should I broach this topic at the next town hall meeting?

You make this all sound sooo easy.

[ChiLLx]

Focus on the props that stand out. That's it.

[BigdaddyQH]

This is just another game. If you 'cap it any other way, you will probably lose. Stick to what got you there if you are a winner, or, in the case of the vast majority in here, cap the game and go the opposite direction for a small wager, for the losers in here.

[slacker00]

Super Bowl is all about prop betting.

[suicidekings]

Still won't stop fools from calling this their GOY, haha.

Personally I don't think this game warrants any bet on side or total. You can make decent arguments for the strengths and weaknesses of both sides, but any way you break it down, it's close. The divide between the Seattle Offense and Denver Defense is about equal to that between the Denver Offense and Seattle Defense. Denver is a better road team, generally, but 2 weeks to prepare negates that a bit. I think the line is pretty sharp at -2. I would take SEA +3 if it got there, just on principle (x1), but not at the current -145.

This has no-play written all over it.

[slacker00]

Still won't stop fools from calling this their GOY, haha.

Personally I don't think this game warrants any bet on side or total. You can make decent arguments for the strengths and weaknesses of both sides, but any way you break it down, it's close. The divide between the Seattle Offense and Denver Defense is about equal to that between the Denver Offense and Seattle Defense. Denver is a better road team, generally, but 2 weeks to prepare negates that a bit. I think the line is pretty sharp at -2. I would take SEA +3 if it got there, just on principle (x1), but not at the current -145.

This has no-play written all over it.

How do you compare the special teams? I'm starting to think this might be where the game is won & lost.

[suicidekings]

How do you compare the special teams? I'm starting to think this might be where the game is won & lost.

With Harvin returning kicks? It could for sure decide the game. I've never liked Trindon Holliday all that much and Seattle's punt/kick coverage is incredible. Seattle's special teams are definitely superior, as a whole, ranked #5 in DVOA compared to Denver's #21. The teams' kickers rank 1 & 2, both having monster seasons, so no real advantage there.

Another element to compare is coaching. I'm not really a Jon Fox fan. I think he's average in terms of taking advantage of big moments in games. Pete Carroll is more of a risk taker, and I could see some aggressive playcalling from him being a difference maker as well. But I can't make any real statement about a team having a significant edge somewhere without several IF statements to follow it.

I'm just going to sit back and watch, cheering for my Seahawks to win.

[Fred The Hammer]

With Harvin returning kicks? It could for sure decide the game. I've never liked Trindon Holliday all that much and Seattle's punt/kick coverage is incredible. Seattle's special teams are definitely superior, as a whole, ranked #5 in DVOA compared to Denver's #21. The teams' kickers rank 1 & 2, both having monster seasons, so no real advantage there.

Another element to compare is coaching. I'm not really a Jon Fox fan. I think he's average in terms of taking advantage of big moments in games. Pete Carroll is more of a risk taker, and I could see some aggressive playcalling from him being a difference maker as well. But I can't make any real statement about a team having a significant edge somewhere without several IF statements to follow it.

I'm just going to sit back and watch, cheering for my Seahawks to win.

Think he's the fastest guy in the NFL. He ran back 2 in their Ravens lost last year....one on this field in NY earlier. He had one called back (or a punt) vs SD in the playoff game when he was already gone and didnt the clip or whatever it was. I think they're working Decker on punts since Holiday has had some fumbles there but he's def top 3 in kickoff returns!!

[suicidekings]

Think he's the fastest guy in the NFL. He ran back 2 in their Ravens lost last year....one on this field in NY earlier. He had one called back (or a punt) vs SD in the playoff game when he was already gone and didnt the clip or whatever it was. I think they're working Decker on punts since Holiday has had some fumbles there but he's def top 3 in kickoff returns!!

5 fumbles this season on 60 total returns. 6 fumbles in 2012 on 67 total returns. That's atrocious. When you put the ball on the ground that often, you're NOT a top 3 returner, regardless of what your 40 yard time is... I don't like him because there's always a very real threat of him duffing one in a key situation, and Seattle's punt/kick coverage is excellent. He's more likely to be getting hit immediately by the gunner than to break one out for a big return against Seattle's special teams.

Overall, Denver is only average (17th) in average starting field position. Seattle ranks 3rd.

[slacker00]

Trindon Holliday is 5'5" 162 lbs?! How is he not a grease stain in some stadium somewhere already? lol

[Fred The Hammer]

5 fumbles this season on 60 total returns. 6 fumbles in 2012 on 67 total returns. That's atrocious. When you put the ball on the ground that often, you're NOT a top 3 returner, regardless of what your 40 yard time is... I don't like him because there's always a very real threat of him duffing one in a key situation, and Seattle's punt/kick coverage is excellent. He's more likely to be getting hit immediately by the gunner than to break one out for a big return against Seattle's special teams.

Overall, Denver is only average (17th) in average starting field position. Seattle ranks 3rd.

I'd bet 95% of his fumbles were from punts....how many guys have ran back 2 in a playoff game before? Denver isn't that good in starting field position because the kicks in Denver go an extra 15 yards in that air. Touchbacks on kickoffs and 60 yard punts right and left!! Now I agree with you that Seattle's special teams are excellent but Holliday is a weapon on a kickoff return!

Now I would agree with you that Seattle has the advantage overall. Denver has lost so many guys to injury that I'm sure its messed up their special teams and you never know with Percy Harvin? You really can't bet a game on special teams play though anyway?