NFL Playoff lines

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  • indio
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 06-03-11
    • 751

    #1
    NFL Playoff lines
    What are these going to be? My projection:

    Indy 3.5 vs kc 44
    Cincy 7 vs sd 45
    san fran 4 vs GB 49
    n.orleans 1.5 vs PHA 56


    What are your numbers?
  • Renegades
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-12-11
    • 5290

    #2
    Indy will be less than a fg
    Comment
    • indio
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 06-03-11
      • 751

      #3
      Originally posted by Renegades
      Indy will be less than a fg
      I'm quite positive they'll be at least 3, but we'll see.
      Comment
      • meader99
        SBR MVP
        • 10-30-10
        • 4223

        #4
        Originally posted by indio
        What are these going to be? My projection:

        Indy 3.5 vs kc 44
        Cincy 7 vs sd 45
        san fran 4 vs GB 49
        n.orleans 1.5 vs PHA 56


        What are your numbers?
        Can't see SF as a 4 point favorite. They were only 4 point faves in the opener at SF.
        Comment
        • indio
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 06-03-11
          • 751

          #5
          Originally posted by meader99
          Can't see SF as a 4 point favorite. They were only 4 point faves in the opener at SF.
          Not trying to be mean, but if you think a line from week 1 actually has any meaning for a January game, perhaps you shouldn't be betting too much on sports. And just for the record, they were laying a solid 5 in that game, even 6 at a few places.

          Atlanta was favored over New England in September too, Houston was a 4.5 favorite vs San Diego in week 1, do you think that would matter if those games were played tomorrow? Do you think you could get New England plus points vs Atlanta, or San Diego + 4.5 vs Houston if they played next week?
          Comment
          • JerseyRobby
            SBR MVP
            • 12-14-11
            • 1494

            #6
            Lines out on 5 Dimes
            Ind -3
            Bengals -7 1/2
            49ers/GB PK

            No over unders yet
            Comment
            • indio
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 06-03-11
              • 751

              #7
              Originally posted by JerseyRobby
              Lines out on 5 Dimes
              Ind -3
              Bengals -7 1/2
              49ers/GB PK

              No over unders yet
              Yeah, I saw those. That GB/SF line is as bad as some as their college bowl openers. Wont take them long to make SF a favorite.
              Comment
              • meader99
                SBR MVP
                • 10-30-10
                • 4223

                #8
                Originally posted by indio
                Not trying to be mean, but if you think a line from week 1 actually has any meaning for a January game, perhaps you shouldn't be betting too much on sports. And just for the record, they were laying a solid 5 in that game, even 6 at a few places.

                Atlanta was favored over New England in September too, Houston was a 4.5 favorite vs San Diego in week 1, do you think that would matter if those games were played tomorrow? Do you think you could get New England plus points vs Atlanta, or San Diego + 4.5 vs Houston if they played next week?
                Don't much care if you're trying to be mean or not....Looks like you were only 4 points off of your projection.
                Comment
                • indio
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 06-03-11
                  • 751

                  #9
                  Originally posted by meader99
                  Don't much care if you're trying to be mean or not....Looks like you were only 4 points off of your projection.
                  I doubt it. San Fran will be at least a 3 point favorite (probably 3.5) by game time guaranteed, and might even be 3 by tomorrow. Theyve already become favorites, and 5 Dimes openers are not very strong.
                  Comment
                  • indio
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 06-03-11
                    • 751

                    #10
                    Originally posted by indio
                    I doubt it. San Fran will be at least a 3 point favorite (probably 3.5) by game time guaranteed, and might even be 3 by tomorrow. Theyve already become favorites, and 5 Dimes openers are not very strong.
                    San Fran is already a 2 point favorite at Pinny. That took all of 10 minutes LOL.
                    Comment
                    • meader99
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-30-10
                      • 4223

                      #11
                      Originally posted by indio
                      I doubt it. San Fran will be at least a 3 point favorite (probably 3.5) by game time guaranteed, and might even be 3 by tomorrow. Theyve already become favorites, and 5 Dimes openers are not very strong.
                      Funny. You tell me I shouldn't be betting, even though I was clearly right here. What I know is what HFA is worth and that teams like the Packers, Cowboys, Yankees, Duke and UNC basketball (to name a few) always have inflated lines. Seems you should bet the ranch since you are getting 4 points of value.
                      Comment
                      • indio
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 06-03-11
                        • 751

                        #12
                        Originally posted by meader99
                        Funny. You tell me I shouldn't be betting, even though I was clearly right here. What I know is what HFA is worth and that teams like the Packers, Cowboys, Yankees, Duke and UNC basketball (to name a few) always have inflated lines. Seems you should bet the ranch since you are getting 4 points of value.
                        You were right? The line is already SF -2 and going up. Trust me , SF will be at least a 3 point favorite when this game goes off. All this did was to say that my openers were better than 5 dimes, which isn't unusual.

                        And your rationale is a lot different here than it was earlier. Here, its an inflated HFA for GB, earlier, it was because of the week 1 line, which is a stupid reason. At least an inflated HFA and Rogers factor makes sense, as opposed to a week 1 line.
                        Comment
                        • meader99
                          SBR MVP
                          • 10-30-10
                          • 4223

                          #13
                          Originally posted by indio
                          You were right? The line is already SF -2 and going up. Trust me , SF will be at least a 3 point favorite when this game goes off. All this did was to say that my openers were better than 5 dimes, which isn't unusual.

                          And your rationale is a lot different here than it was earlier. Here, its an inflated HFA for GB, earlier, it was because of the week 1 line, which is a stupid reason. At least an inflated HFA and Rogers factor makes sense, as opposed to a week 1 line.
                          The 1st game was in SF and opened at 4. This game is in GB and opened at 0. You thought it would be 4. So yeah, I was right.
                          Comment
                          • indio
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 06-03-11
                            • 751

                            #14
                            Originally posted by meader99
                            The 1st game was in SF and opened at 4. This game is in GB and opened at 0. You thought it would be 4. So yeah, I was right.
                            No, I said the LINE would be 4, which it might be (more likely 3). 5 Dimes openers are meaningless (They opened Michigan as a favorite vs Kansas St.) Where did I say what it would open at? I said what the line would be, which often is different than an opener.

                            My post was what would the line be, not what a weak opener was, which by the way, lasted all of 5 minutes. San Fran is a 2.5 favorite at Pinny right now, and the line has been out less than an hour, and only taking small size wagers.

                            You're not too bright, are you son?
                            Comment
                            • Renegades
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 10-12-11
                              • 5290

                              #15
                              Indy -2.5 at 5 dimes. KC is winning this game. I'll be on it.
                              Comment
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