49ers vs. Cardinals PK?

[Phatman36]

Hadn't thought about that. Checked it out, definitely likely to hit, but I went SF ML instead

Can't go wrong with +125 haha. Palmer about to choke hard like usual.

[Potentate]

Can't go wrong with +125 haha. Palmer about to choke hard like usual.

I'm kinda banking on it. 20 units 49ers -1 (of course I make one of my biggest bet of the year and the line goes haywire overnight) and 49ers ML 6 units.

[Cause-I-Need-It]

I'm kinda banking on it. 20 units 49ers -1 (of course I make one of my biggest bet of the year and the line goes haywire overnight) and 49ers ML 6 units.

Just curious what 26 units is to you, % of roll wise?

[Potentate]

Just curious what 26 units is to you, % of roll wise?

Around 40 percent of it

[Cause-I-Need-It]

Around 40 percent of it

Im contemplating "all in" is why I asked.

[Potentate]

Im contemplating "all in" is why I asked.

What are your thoughts on the game?

[Potentate]

I generally advise against all-in, but if you REALLY believe... or if you're a rec bettor like me having fun...

[Potentate]

I'm kinda banking on it. 20 units 49ers -1 (of course I make one of my biggest bet of the year and the line goes haywire overnight) and 49ers ML 6 units.

Cashed! Here's to spreading some good luck. GL on your plays tonight guys!

[Potentate]

12/29 04:25 PM

327 - San Francisco 49ers 328 - Arizona Cardinals

Line is now +2. It is not fairly split but it is not overwhelmingly lopsided. As we can see the small addition of public waging is moving that line upward. I am not even gonna go for the +2. I will stick with what I have because I feel AZ will win straight up. Arizona offense is not horrible. It is average. And I do not have much confidence in a struggling Kap and his mediocre offense. This will be a defensive struggle and the game will come down to the final play. Just like what happened last week which cost me my fantasy title and some bread. Good luck!

Meant to respond to this. For me it just came down to the simple opinion that the 49ers were the "better team." The PK line was great value for both sides and like you said, it gave the Cardinals credit for what they did in Seattle, but like I said, it was a little too much credit. Games like this it's easy to overthink it and bank on a "sharp" angle like the Niners not showing up because they've already clinched a playoff spot. That angle is valid, but it's weak when you're dealing with a team that almost always shows up. If you're gonna bank on that angle, you've got to know the team very well. The 49ers are a playoff-bound team that was playing for better seeding and a possible division title. Why wouldn't they show up for a division match on a day like this?

The 49ers came out with their playoff playbook open to start then reverted back to their defensive-minded run-first no matter what grind it out style. The Arizona -3 line was put out there bait "for the public." 49ers almost let it cover playing all conservative. You nailed the part about it coming down to the final play, but if you think it's coming down to the final play, you've got to take the better team.