Ravens vs. Lions Under 50.5

GemSportsPicks · 12-16-13, 11:03 AM

Possible scores
21-17
28-21
31-17

The reason I will put another thousand on it if it goes to 52, is because then 28-23 becomes a win and 28-24 is a push... I don't see this many points coming by it could always happen and always nice to have that little cushion.

Kodytena22 · 12-16-13, 11:06 AM

Only 1 lion home game has gone under 50

GemSportsPicks · 12-16-13, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by Kodytena22

Only 1 lion home game has gone under 50

I am aware.

WWCD · 12-16-13, 11:37 AM

I believe Detroit is down 3 CBs now? Against a team that likes to go deep. CJ doesn't need more motivation, but being called an "Old man" gives him a bit more reason to go off tonight. I like the Over in this game.

ENCE · 12-16-13, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by GemSportsPicks

Sorry for the wrong post with Ravens vs. Steelers, that being said and because of my mistake I'll give my reasoning which I hate doing...

The line is extra inflated because of the Ravens last game, where there was 35 points scored in the last 2min 30 seconds... Ravens defense has been playing better, and all week, it has been beat into their head not to get beat over the top.

The Lions played in that big snow game last week, they had Eagles held to a donut at half until Mccoy went off... This is an extremely big game for both teams, both teams will be looking to control the ball, not take to many chances cause they don't want to lose on stupid shit...

Love the Under good luck all.

1) BET ID=429527834

Straight Wager	12/16/13 10:38 ET
bet 423.00 to win 384.55	Result: Pending

Ravens(Baltimore)
Lions(Detroit)

12/16/13(20:45 ET)
Under 50.5 (-110)

Unfortunately, that's what the Lions live and die by... taking chances and doing stupid shiiii... it'll too many game breakers on the field tonite to stay under the total IMO...

1. Calvin Johnson
2. Reggie Bush (on turf)
3. Torrey Smith
4. Jacoby Jones returning kicks

Not to mention that each defensive front is more than capable of stripping the ball from these non mobile QBs for a score/ short field... im not good at capping games but every now and then i get a hunch... and my huncher is hunching abt the over is this one... GL fellas!

GemSportsPicks · 12-16-13, 01:19 PM

Love to see this total dropping back down... Might finish at 48, for all you over bettors, hope you get the best number possible... I'm just glad I didn't wait for it to go up to 52, cause it never did, very happy to take my 50.5 instead of 49 or less

lonegambler · 12-16-13, 01:57 PM

so let me understand the lions throw goose egg at eagles in a blizzard that's ur reasoning ? then saying there defense played great in the first half in those conditions . ok? then u say everyone hot and horny on the over cause the ravens scored 35 pts in fourth quarter, so sounds like to me looking for contradicting reasoning in order for u to sell ur under play defense good in snow but offense overrated cause of snow lol. truth is in this game like the dallas game dez mouthed off about megatron and he put up playstation numbers on dallas . this game in doors fast turf and should be track meet look for this game get closer to 60 pts lions don't cover te well and ravens wrs should be able to exploit det secondary, otherside megatron has a mouth to shut and he will b feed the ball consistently big home game for det wit pack and bears winning so they will do what they do best be that big play team they are and put 34 up tonite I say34-27 like lions too

GemSportsPicks · 12-16-13, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by lonegambler

so let me understand the lions throw goose egg at eagles in a blizzard that's ur reasoning ? then saying there defense played great in the first half in those conditions . ok? then u say everyone hot and horny on the over cause the ravens scored 35 pts in fourth quarter, so sounds like to me looking for contradicting reasoning in order for u to sell ur under play defense good in snow but offense overrated cause of snow lol. truth is in this game like the dallas game dez mouthed off about megatron and he put up playstation numbers on dallas . this game in doors fast turf and should be track meet look for this game get closer to 60 pts lions don't cover te well and ravens wrs should be able to exploit det secondary, otherside megatron has a mouth to shut and he will b feed the ball consistently big home game for det wit pack and bears winning so they will do what they do best be that big play team they are and put 34 up tonite I say34-27 like lions too

So noone is trying to sell my Under, everyone can take whatever they feel, and it seems all of you will be on the over regardless of what I say... I just post my plays when I take something I took a long break (been busy with work) have been on for the last couple weeks so as a courtesy I post my plays...

For everyone else, this is why I rarely if ever give reasoning... Good luck all, it seems you should all take the over because its free money... GLA

heavyc819 · 12-16-13, 02:06 PM

This year the over is 46-14 when AFC teams play NFC teams. It was 3-0 yesterday Ariz vs Tenn, Carolina Vs Jets, and chicago vs Browns. its settled in at 49.....detroit will score 31-41 themselves sorry but I cant bet against a trend that is 46-14....the Lions have played 3 AFC teams this year so far, all three games went over

GemSportsPicks · 12-16-13, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by heavyc819

This year the over is 46-14 when AFC teams play NFC teams. It was 3-0 yesterday Ariz vs Tenn, Carolina Vs Jets, and chicago vs Browns. its settled in at 49.....detroit will score 31-41 themselves sorry but I cant bet against a trend that is 46-14....the Lions have played 3 AFC teams this year so far, all three games went over

I understand, and very good trending, not my intention to sway anyone to take the under, just simply letting everyone know what I got, while I'm hot... Good luck tonight... Remember trends are made to be broken!!! hahaha

GemSportsPicks · 12-16-13, 03:26 PM

This will be my last brief point then we will just have to wait until the game is over to see who was right...

So it seems everyone has the Lions scoring a minimum of 31, the line is -6, so for arguments sake its safe to say everyone feels this game will be 31-25, which is minimum of 56 points being scored... This total opened up at 48.5 got bet up to 50.5 and has now fallen back to 48.5 at most of the sharper books..

All of the stats everyone keeps telling me, I realize and trend analysis and stat analysis has its place, and believe me Vegas and the odds makers know all these same stats everyone keeps rattling off and even more exotic ones that noone has mentioned yet... Even with all of this info the total opens up at 48.5 a full touchdown less then what everyone on here thinks the minimum score will be.... HMMMM I wonder why, not saying the under is the only way to go, but this game will not be played as everyone sees it...

I'll leave it at that... Good luck all... Over bettors I hope you get that good number of 48.5 so if there is 49 scored which is strong possibility we can both be winners.

GemSportsPicks · 12-16-13, 10:08 PM

So to all of the Over bettors, who were sincere in their game analysis I apologize for the way the game is going...

For all of the over bettors who were arrogant telling me how stupid I am for this pick, just know this... I've done this alot longer than you and I've made alot more money than you doing this...

Good luck all, congrats to those on the under... Word over warning. over bettors please do not chase second half over... Its not a good move.

Capper1124 · 12-16-13, 11:30 PM

Nice pick. Congrats

jpot34 · 12-16-13, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by GemSportsPicks

So to all of the Over bettors, who were sincere in their game analysis I apologize for the way the game is going...

For all of the over bettors who were arrogant telling me how stupid I am for this pick, just know this... I've done this alot longer than you and I've made alot more money than you doing this...

Good luck all, congrats to those on the under... Word over warning. over bettors please do not chase

second half over... Its not a good move.

Nice job, Gem!!!!!!

GemSportsPicks · 12-17-13, 08:21 AM

Thanks, maybe stupid late night NBA move, but was decent day... I'll try to give everyone another good 1 tomorrow.

thebestthereis · 12-17-13, 08:50 AM

the public gave it all back as expected, another winning week for me. congrats on the play as well.

RollinDo · 12-17-13, 11:46 AM

Originally posted by GemSportsPicks

This will be my last brief point then we will just have to wait until the game is over to see who was right...

So it seems everyone has the Lions scoring a minimum of 31, the line is -6, so for arguments sake its safe to say everyone feels this game will be 31-25, which is minimum of 56 points being scored... This total opened up at 48.5 got bet up to 50.5 and has now fallen back to 48.5 at most of the sharper books..

All of the stats everyone keeps telling me, I realize and trend analysis and stat analysis has its place, and believe me Vegas and the odds makers know all these same stats everyone keeps rattling off and even more exotic ones that noone has mentioned yet... Even with all of this info the total opens up at 48.5 a full touchdown less then what everyone on here thinks the minimum score will be.... HMMMM I wonder why, not saying the under is the only way to go, but this game will not be played as everyone sees it...

I'll leave it at that... Good luck all... Over bettors I hope you get that good number of 48.5 so if there is 49 scored which is strong possibility we can both be winners.

I should have read your post instead of that dang Toot Toot dude...he makes me sick. Anyways, I didn't make a play on the over/under.
Thanks for sharing and giving your rationale for the Under. I'll try to look for your next over/under play.

ZIPPER HEAD · 12-17-13, 01:25 PM

Good capping gem