C-Gold's week 15 NFL 60% ATS

[C-Gold]

I need no introduction, I am the best NFL capper at SBR whether you want to admit it or not. You might dislike me or disagree with the picks but you get pound for pound the best analysis here.


New England @ Miami

Under normal circumstances I would say that everybody is over reacting to the Patriots losing Gronk and that Brady and Bellicheck will find a way. The public has a short memory and the Patriots were winning at the start of the year without Gronk, so why hype up this injury so much and act like they can't win? I think a lot of people still think that and that's why more people are betting on the Pats to about a 60/40 clip.

The fish have one of the shittiest most dysfunctional organizations in the sport. A great example of that is the whole Richie Incognito fiasco that is still not resolved yet. Look what Bob Kraft did after the whole Aaron Hernandez thing came out, his ass was gone the very next day. That boys and girls is the difference between a good organization and a bad organization.

The thing that jumps out to me is the Miami season win total above 8 wins. Everybody thought that looked like a shitty bet but the books kept taking money. Miami WILL win 9 games this year.
Week 15 New England
Week 16 @ Buffalo
Week 17 Jets

Yeah maybe the Pats win this one and Miami wins the last two, but Vegas will make more money if the fish win here and trust me, Miami will win 9 games, it might stink but they will. If Miami losses this one you can bet your ass I am taking them at Buffalo and against the Jets. That season win total looked off but it will hit.

The Pats have played up and down to their competition all year long. They beat the Houston Texans by 3, they cheated their way to a win over Cleveland, they lost to the Jets.

Look at how shitty the Pats have been in the 1st half of games. Denver was a blow out. They were losing to Cleveland. Losing to Houston. Miami was beating them 17-3 in Foxborro. Don't be shocked if Miami is leading at half time and the Patriots backers are praying for another Brady miracle.

Pats WR core is pure shit right now. Shane Vereen had 12 catches last week to lead the team. Brady threw for 400 but the most catches by a WR was 6. Edleman is the only healthy guy. Amendola is good but hurt. The rest of the guys suck AND they are hurt. Miami is very good against the pass this year. They are giving up under 230 per game passing and opposing QB's have a QB rating under 75. Last time these teams played Tom Brady passed for 116 yards and his leading WR Aaron Dobson caught 4 balls. Gronk was the #2 pass catcher by yards that game and he's gone and his replacement is a tremendous drop off.

Miami has fared well against decent teams this year.
Beat the Colts in Indianapolis
Beat the Bengals
Lost to Carolina by 4
Were up on the Pats 17-3 in New England and eventually lost
Beat Pittsburgh on the road in December

Miami has won 4 out of their last 6 games ever since Jonathan Martin quit on the team. I don't even blame Jonathan Martin anymore. After all this stuff came out HE apologized to Richie Incognito because they were friends and he realized his actions were going to put his friend through hell. It wasn't Martin that made all of these accusations after being demoted and losing his starting spot, it was his family. He comes from a family of blood thirsty ambulance chasing lawyers who will do anything for a dollar. His mom and his family don't know the first thing about justice. They know about affirmative action and how to rip people off. The Martin family are the scum of the earth and they make this place a worse place to live for everybody. I hope they live in shame for crying rape and using race as a weapon to extort money.

It is tough betting against Brady and Bellicheck. I don't believe in Tannehill and Miami has lost 7 in a row to the Pats. That isn't just about talent, or players or coaching at some point that is about scouting. These are division rivals and the Pats own Miami. They know them and always best them. Even when the Pats were losing 17-3 they still won. With that said I wouldn't take the Pats here. It is Miami or nothing.

[C-Gold]

Seattle @ Giants

I liked SD last week but shied away. The Giants are an awful team. Their offensive line is horrible.

LT is average but can not block top pass rushers 1 on 1, he will get beat every single play.
LG is a fill in backup player
C is a guard that had to shift, he was an average guard who came out of the Ivy League
RG is an old tackle that is getting blown up on every play
RT is a rookie

I don't think Seattle's pass rush is that great, they don't have a Demarcus Ware, Aldon Smith, Jared Allen, or a Tambi Hali. Cliff Avril is a good complementary pass rusher but he isn't a one man wrecking crew like the above guys. Seattle's top secondary helps the pass rush though as it feeds off itself. With that said Seattle's pass rush is good enough to over match the Giants terrible o-line and then they have an elite secondary that should pick Eli off 2 or 3 or more times, especially if the Giants are playing catch up ball.

All Russell Wilson has to do is hand the ball off and play game manager. He's a more tan version of Alex Smith, I get sick to death of people hyping him up, he is just another game manager. The Alex Smith comparison is perfect, Smith was traded for a 3rd round pick and Wilson was drafted in round 3. That's what a good game manager is going for these days. He has too many problems with his game and I don't think he will be the Seattle starter 5 seasons from now. If I could notice the holes in his game then the defensive coordinators can too. Russell Wilson has real trouble throwing from the pocket. It's all roll outs. Or when he does get rushed he immediately runs to buy some time and throw. A real good NFL QB stands in the pocket and makes quicker throws. He will be forced to do that at some point and he is not very good at it.

Seattle's weakness on defense is run the ball and maybe dink and dunk. When they are in Seattle you can't really beat them passing the ball. Seattle is an awful match up for the Giants. Their O-Line sucks, they will have no run game, and Eli isn't a dink and dunker, Eli throws into coverage. Against Seattle that means picks and turnovers and a loss. Tampa almost beat them in Seattle, they have a good O-line, they run the ball and Mike Glennon was dinking and dunking and hitting the TE.

This is a bad bad match up for the Giants. The only reason they might not cover is because I am not sure Seattle will organically create that much offense. They should however get a lot of short fields and points.

Forget the west coast thing, look at the match up. This reminds me of more like the Atlanta/Seattle match up earlier in the year. Atlanta couldn't run the ball so Matt Ryan was dead. Well same thing here only Eli is more of a gun slinger and will throw picks.

I like Seattle here especially in a teaser to just win.

[C-Gold]

Bears @ Browns

Some people are just winners, people like Tom Brady and some people are just losers, people like Jason Campbell. But but but he has no receivers, or no line, or no coach, or no defense... It is all excuses for losers like Jason Campbell. They lose because he is a loser and they let him lose. Tom Brady is a winner because he makes the Patriots win. He is throwing to horse shit receivers and he still wins. He won a super bowl with Troy Hambrick at RB and Deion Branch as his stud receiver.

The Bears have a poor rush defense, but the Browns RB is washed up. Willis is a shell of his former self. He lost speed, gained weight and isn't an explosive runner but is turning into a slower harder runner. That's not good.

The Bears have a short week and a lot to prove. The coach and the QB have a lot on the line as Josh McCown has filled in admirably. That's my point though. There are backup NFL QB's who can win games but they aren't the franchise guy. That's why a guy like Geno Smith sucks so bad. He isn't even a good guy to have as a backup QB. Josh McCown and Ryan Fitspatrick are backups and they are clearly much better than him. Geno will be in Canada or he will be done with football before you know it.

The Browns defense is decent, Joe Hayden is a top CB but the Bears have 2 receivers. You put Hayden on Marshall well keep throwing to Alshon.

I don't think I will bet on this game but I'd lean Bears here. I do think the Browns have some nice pieced to build on after this year and they totally ripped the Colts off. If the Browns play their cards right they could be a playoff team in a year or two but Weeden and Campbell aren't very good.

[C-Gold]

Bills @ Jags

The Jags were supposed to be the shittiest team in the NFL this year but it is funny what happens to your team when you dump your loser QB. Gabbart is a bum and Henne is only a backup caliber QB but he has been winning. The Jags have won 3 in a row and 4 out of 5.

Anybody who says the coach should be fired is an idiot. The Jags have the talent of a 2-14 team maybe 4-12 at best and they already won 4 games. Gus Bradley absolutely deserves more time. A coach that wins 7 games with a 12-4 team sucks. A coach that wins at least 4 games with the least talented roster in the NFL didn't do a bad job.

EJ Manuel sucks. He threw 4 picks last week but I'd still take the Bills here if I had to play. I don't want to play this game but the Bills have speed and talent on both sides of the ball, much more so than the Jags.

[C-Gold]

Houston @ Indy

Houston sucks, they always lose, they are ranked at the bottom of the power rankings but they always lose close games.
Lost by 7
Lost by 3
Lost by 7
Lost by 5
Lost by 3
Lost by 3
Lost by 1
Lost by 25
Lost by 31
Lost by 3

Keep in mind this team was supposed to own this division this year and also keep in mind their defense is good and their offense can move the ball. I think it was a big mistake to fire Kubiak. He should head coach in the NFL again, maybe even take Mike Shannihans spot in Washington.

I think Houston covers this game and maybe gets the upset on the road, playing hard for the new coach. The Colts got blown out of 2 out of their last 3 games, they haven't been the same without reggie wayne. I think Houston stays in this game and covers. Especially because nobody thinks they will.

[C-Gold]

Phila @ Minnesota

Phila averages over 400 yards per game.
Minnesota gives up over 400 yards per game

Phila defense still isn't very good, but the Vikings offense sucks. The Vikings best weapon, Peterson isn't 100% and the TE should be out also.

Phila hasn't played in a dome all year yet and Lesean McCoy should be very fast in that dome and I don't think the Vikings will catch him.

Phila should put up 30 or more points and the Vikings won't be able to keep pace. I think the Eagles win and cover. There is no comparison between Foles and any of the trash Leslie Frazier will throw out there at QB. Leslie Frazier is about to become one of the 15 million unemployed Americans.

[C-Gold]

Washington @ Atlanta

RG3and out is a drama queen. It's me me me. Look at ME in the Subway commercial. Look at ME in the ADIDAS commercial. Look at ME in my other commercials. Look at ME with MY operation patience. Peyton Manning had a serious neck and spinal cord injury and had to sit out a year. He came back and wasn't 100% healthy at first. He didn't tell the NFL that he was going to light it up and try and attract attention to himself. RG3 is just another over hyped black QB only he has better marketing. He actually isn't stupid, he is a bright guy but he lacks emotional intelligence and he has that self promotion gene. He has to talk. He has to attract attention to himself. It's like one of those homosexuals that just has to be talking and attracting attention to himself and creating drama.

When the Redskins played the Eagles and RG3 was getting hit, the Washington O-lineman were helping up the Eagles defenders while RG3 was picking himself up. That says it all right there. Beat reporters for the Redskins said there were grumbles and eye rolls in the locker room when RG3 and his circus was mentioned. The players have been sick for weeks about answering questions about him. There are 51 other guys on the team. His dad showing up to the locker room and trying to tell the coach that he wants his son to be a passer and not a runner. Do you want to coach now? How many commercials did you see Andrew Luck in and he legitimately lacks talent on the offensive side of the ball.

The Redskins still have had a good statistical offense. The Shannihans are both good coaches and they have a scheme that works. It worked with Elway, it worked with Jake Plummer, it worked with Brian Greise, it worked with Matt Schaub, and Rex Grossman won 6 games and he didn't have Pierre Garcon to throw to and Alfred Morris as a running back. RG3 has more talent than Rex and worse results.

You have an undersized O-line which has it's advantages and disadvantages. For the plays they run they should have a good running game, which they do, but the passing game requires a mobile QB or a fast thinking QB. RG3 isn't good at reading the defenses. He can make 1 read or 2 reads on any given play and he can't read the blitz. Last year it was all 1 read throws. He is the most blitzed QB statistically in the NFL this year, Vick was also always blitzed, defenses do this because these guys can't process the information fast enough, they don't do their homework, they think they can just show up and play and outrun everybody. You aren't going to outrun 11 defenders.

RG3 had no preseason, no practice, he just thinks he's Super swamp rat and he can show up to the games and is entitled to win. That is very evident in all the press conferences where all the wins are thanks to him, and all the losses are everybody elses fault. The Redskins have won 3 games with RG3 and 2 of them were against backup QB's. The Redskins only won 1 game against an NFL starting QB.

Oh and spare me the typical excuses for the failed black QB.
No running game
No receivers
No line

It is all bullshit. Alfred Morris and the Redskins do have a good running game. The Receivers are good enough, and the line is good enough, if RG3 studied his playbook and didn't hold onto the ball that long and knew his reads he would be fine but he didn't do the homework. The Redskins coaching staff, the scouts, and people in the know said it is NOT the line, it is RG3. That's the scouts. The in house scouts said it and the 3rd party scouts said it. It is on Reggie the swamp rat 3 not anybody else.

Cousins has a lot of pressure on him but he will have a good game and the Redskins will cover and might even win outright.

[C-Gold]

San Fran @ Tampa

Funny how the media always takes the side of the immature QB and not the coach.

The Bi Josh Freeman and all of his supporters have a lot of crow to eat. Tampa has won 4 of 5 and they average 10+ more points per game with rookie Mike Glennon over the bi sexual QB that sucks. Greg Schiano is owed a lot of apologies.

SF just hasn't been as dominant this year but they got Crabtree back and Kaep always loved throwing to him. The SF line hasn't looked as dominant this year and Kaep just needs some rythem.

The public is taking the 49ers here and I think the public wins. Maybe TB gets a cover and losses by 3 or 4 but SF and those linebackers on a grass field. I can't fade them here. I'd go with the public and take the 49ers.

[C-Gold]

KC @ Oakland

KC should win. The total is low and this game should be low scoring. I believe the books think this will be like that Steelers game that the Raiders won 21-18 or like the one they lost to the Titans 19-23. Books are thinking the Raiders lose a close low scoring game.

[C-Gold]

Jets @ Carolina

Should be another low scoring game. 10 points is a lot of points but they have to factor in things like teasers. If Carolina was -7 then everybody would bet them or tease them to bounce back against Princess Gina Smith. Now at least the books would be getting it to 3 in teaser situations.

Carolina needs to run the ball for rythem on offense but the Jets are good at stopping the run. The X factor is that monkey brains QB the Jets are forced to start. If the Jets had a guy like Chad Henne here it would help their team a lot. He is a backup quality QB. Gina is an NFL Europe QB.

Carolina should win but 10 points is a lot in a low scoring game.

[C-Gold]

Green Bay @ Dallas

I know Dallas's defense sucks but I think Romo is good enough that they win. Could be high scoring. Dallas is hard to trust covering a bigger spread with that defense but they are 5-1 at home and Matt Flynn is Matt Damon's low budget porn stunt double.

[C-Gold]

Saints @ Rams

I haven't watched much Rams/Titans/Jaguars/Cardinals this year. This is a no play for me.

[C-Gold]

Arizona @ Titans

Why is Zona laying less than a FG here? The books are counting on 3 Carson Palmer turnovers?

[C-Gold]

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Bengals should win this game and Mike Tomlin should get fired for missing the playoffs 2 years in a row and being a classless piece of shit.

[C-Gold]

Here is a stat for you.
Houston's offense averages 31 more yards per game than Indy's
Houston's defense gives up 70 less points per game than Indy's.

[Youkeepthislove]

Here is a stat for you.
Houston's offense averages 31 more yards per game than Indy's
Houston's defense gives up 70 less points per game than Indy's.

Indy's defense sure gives up a ton of points... Lol.

Nice write ups man. I have a lot of the same angles as you. Good luck tomorrow.

[C-Gold]

Week 15 card so far
Seattle -7
Washington +7
Philly -6.5

[WWCD]

Thanks for the write up and analysis.

Stats that made me roll with Indy:
5-0 ATS vs. AFC South.
8-0 ATS following a game they allow 30+ points.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Nice picks c gold

[C-Gold]

Adrian Peterson AND Toby Gerheart are out for Minnesota.

Folks around the Redskins are expecting a big day from Kirk Cousins and the spread dropped from 7 to 5.5. Folks around the Redskins are expecting 270 to 300 yards, 2 TD and 0 or 1 INT.

I might have to watch that game.

[Gonz312]

Stop watching subway commercials and watch some football, that skin oline is a huge problem. Cousins has been rocked on all but one pass in the first possesion and it probably wont stop...rex might be starting next week.

[C-Gold]

Stop watching subway commercials and watch some football, that skin oline is a huge problem. Cousins has been rocked on all but one pass in the first possesion and it probably wont stop...rex might be starting next week.

Cousins is 5/7 for 56 yards and a TD. The Redskins have 1 TD in 2 possessions. RG3 looks jealous as shit out there, I am sure you can relate.

[C-Gold]

Week 15 card so far
Seattle -7
Washington +7
Philly -6.5

Looking like Seattle and Washington will win, and Phila game is fixed and they will lose.

[C-Gold]

Stop watching subway commercials and watch some football, that skin oline is a huge problem. Cousins has been rocked on all but one pass in the first possesion and it probably wont stop...rex might be starting next week.

Hahahahhahaa fkin clown

[C-Gold]

Washington write up was dead on. Cousins had 381 yards and 3TD and made RGKNEE look like a fool.
Seattle picked off Eli all day

The Phila game was fixed but sometimes that shit happens.

2-1 and I am not taking any 4PM games.

[C-Gold]

Last weeks write ups were solid, especially Seattle and Washington games. Off to next week.

[C-Gold]

Little bitch Potenate is lazy and wants to read my threads.

[C-Gold]

Haters gonna hate